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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $189.77EOD only
Max Pain
$180.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.00
2.6% from close
Price Gap
-9.77
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
41
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 23, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 2026-06-10 (TBD), ~65 days out. IV is elevated (57.2% avg), but term structure shows no sharp kink yet, suggesting IV may rise further into the event. Historical EPS beat rate is strong (3/4 quarters). Key risk is the high negative GEX (-$15.3M) and gamma flip at ~$135, which could amplify moves below that level.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.3% from MP
Most important: Gamma flip at ~$135: below this, negative gamma accelerates selling pressure. Support is concentrated above spot, resistance is distant.
📅Earnings expected 2026-06-10 (TBD), ~65 days out. No sharp IV kink yet.
⚠️Negative GEX -$15.3M and gamma flip ~$135: below this, dealers amplify selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 57.2%)
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Below $135, negative GEX amplifies moves downward

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-10 (65 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (73d): ±$29.70 (20.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated but flat near-term (54.5% 4d, 50.4% 11d), rising to 57.5% by 73d (earnings expiration). No sharp kink yet.

Crush estimate: ~7-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~50%

Skew: Puts slightly richer (P/C OI 0.88), but flow is net put-heavy (net premium -$105M)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit move data, but EPS surprises: +0.06, +0.38, -0.01, +0.03

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters beat EPS, suggesting upside bias

Key Levels

1$150.00 support (pin magnet)
2$155.00 support (pin magnet)
3$160.00 support (pin magnet)
4No meaningful near-term resistance within ±10% of spot

Flow Highlights

Heavy put flow at $260 (2026-04-17): Vol 3,325 vs OI 250 (13.3x), IV 163.7%

Likely protective hedging or speculative downside bets far OTM

Unusual $144 PUT 2026-04-10: Vol 2,218 vs OI 152 (14.6x), IV 58.2%

Near-term downside speculation or hedging just below spot

Strategies

Long straddle (earnings)
Buy $145 straddle 2026-06-18
Max loss: $29.70
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $115.84 / $175.24
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >60%
Historical beat rate suggests potential for large move; elevated IV but may rise further into event
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds 20.4% EM
Underperforms: Stock pins near $145, IV crushes post-earnings
Iron condor (sell premium)
Sell $125/$120P x $165/$170C 2026-06-18
Credit: $5.00-$7.00
Max loss: $15.00
Max gain: $6.00
BE: $126.00 / $169.00
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings
Wide expected move ($115.84-$175.24) provides room; high IV allows for premium capture
Outperforms: Stock stays within $120-$170 range (wide EM bounds)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds range, especially below $120 (gamma flip risk)
Bull call spread (directional)
Buy $150C / Sell $160C 2026-06-18
Debit: $4.00-$5.00
Max loss: $5.00
Max gain: $5.00
BE: $155.00
Trigger: Enter on any dip toward $145
Historical EPS beat bias; support at $150/$155; targets call OI wall at $160
Outperforms: Stock rises to $160+ post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or drops

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±20.4% ($115.84-$175.24) is wide, but gamma flip at $135 could accelerate moves below.
!IV crush: IV may drop ~7-10 pts post-earnings, hurting long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Sufficient (1.8M OI, 115K volume), but watch bid-ask spreads on far OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Size small due to negative GEX and potential for amplified moves below $135.

What to Watch

?IV term structure for kink development as earnings approaches
?Unusual put activity at $144 and far OTM ($260+)
?Spot vs. gamma flip at $135
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.