ThetaOwl

ORCL Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 2026-06-10 (TBD), ~65 days out. IV is elevated (57.2% avg), but term structure shows no sharp kink yet, suggesting IV may rise further into the event. Historical EPS beat rate is strong (3/4 quarters). Key risk is the high negative GEX (-$15.3M) and gamma flip at ~$135, which could amplify moves below that level.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.3% from MP
Most important: Gamma flip at ~$135: below this, negative gamma accelerates selling pressure. Support is concentrated above spot, resistance is distant.
📅Earnings expected 2026-06-10 (TBD), ~65 days out. No sharp IV kink yet.
⚠️Negative GEX -$15.3M and gamma flip ~$135: below this, dealers amplify selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 57.2%)
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Below $135, negative GEX amplifies moves downward

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-10 (65 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (73d): ±$29.70 (20.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated but flat near-term (54.5% 4d, 50.4% 11d), rising to 57.5% by 73d (earnings expiration). No sharp kink yet.

Crush estimate: ~7-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~50%

Skew: Puts slightly richer (P/C OI 0.88), but flow is net put-heavy (net premium -$105M)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit move data, but EPS surprises: +0.06, +0.38, -0.01, +0.03

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters beat EPS, suggesting upside bias

Key Levels

1$150.00 support (pin magnet)
2$155.00 support (pin magnet)
3$160.00 support (pin magnet)
4No meaningful near-term resistance within ±10% of spot

Flow Highlights

Heavy put flow at $260 (2026-04-17): Vol 3,325 vs OI 250 (13.3x), IV 163.7%

Likely protective hedging or speculative downside bets far OTM

Unusual $144 PUT 2026-04-10: Vol 2,218 vs OI 152 (14.6x), IV 58.2%

Near-term downside speculation or hedging just below spot

Strategies

Long straddle (earnings)
Buy $145 straddle 2026-06-18
Max loss: $29.70
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $115.84 / $175.24
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >60%
Historical beat rate suggests potential for large move; elevated IV but may rise further into event
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds 20.4% EM
Underperforms: Stock pins near $145, IV crushes post-earnings
Iron condor (sell premium)
Sell $125/$120P x $165/$170C 2026-06-18
Credit: $5.00-$7.00
Max loss: $15.00
Max gain: $6.00
BE: $126.00 / $169.00
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings
Wide expected move ($115.84-$175.24) provides room; high IV allows for premium capture
Outperforms: Stock stays within $120-$170 range (wide EM bounds)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds range, especially below $120 (gamma flip risk)
Bull call spread (directional)
Buy $150C / Sell $160C 2026-06-18
Debit: $4.00-$5.00
Max loss: $5.00
Max gain: $5.00
BE: $155.00
Trigger: Enter on any dip toward $145
Historical EPS beat bias; support at $150/$155; targets call OI wall at $160
Outperforms: Stock rises to $160+ post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or drops

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±20.4% ($115.84-$175.24) is wide, but gamma flip at $135 could accelerate moves below.
!IV crush: IV may drop ~7-10 pts post-earnings, hurting long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Sufficient (1.8M OI, 115K volume), but watch bid-ask spreads on far OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Size small due to negative GEX and potential for amplified moves below $135.

What to Watch

?IV term structure for kink development as earnings approaches
?Unusual put activity at $144 and far OTM ($260+)
?Spot vs. gamma flip at $135

Read the Earnings analysis for ORCL for 2026-04-06. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.