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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $225.78EOD only
Max Pain
$187.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$16.27
7.2% from close
Price Gap
-38.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 23, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Bullish tilt into earnings with pinning dynamics and elevated put flow; market positioned above max pain near $155–$150 cluster.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17; override: flow/GEX alignment and historical beat rate (see historical_context)
Most important: Strong put activity and call OI wall at $185+ suggest limited upside follow-through despite bullish flow
📌Pinning pressure: heavy short-dated puts concentrated near 180–185 may pin into expiries
⚠️Elevated front-week put IV (~50–150% on some strikes) signals large event risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-10 (54 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$10.00 (5.7%)
  • 2026-05-01 (14d): ±$14.47 (8.3%)
  • 2026-05-08 (21d): ±$17.50 (10.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV highly elevated into weekly expiries; front-week IV spikes (roughly 50–150% on some short-dated strikes) vs compressed longer-dated IV

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-high IV crush likely for front-week strikes post-release

Skew: Pronounced downside skew — concentrated put interest across 140–185 strikes with elevated short-dated put IV

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves often meet or exceed model; recent sample shows 75% beat rate (last 4 reported quarters per company filings)

Directional bias: Slight bullish tilt historically given beats, but downside tail risk persists due to put concentration and skew

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $165.06/$185.06
2Max pain pins: $155 (2026-04-17); $150 (2026-04-24); $150 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Large put prints at 180/185 expiries and multi-week 140 puts

Dealer hedging likely generates downward gamma and pinning toward 150–165

Material call OI wall $185–$250

Creates resistance and caps upside torque post-earnings

Strategies

Defined-range iron condor
Sell 2026-04-24 $165.00/$152.50 put wing and $180.00/$195.00 call wing
Credit: $3.33-$4.07
Max loss: $10.93
Max gain: $4.07
BE: 160.93 / 184.07
Trigger: Trim or roll wings pre-release if price breaches 152.5–180; close into IV collapse.
Balances income from pinning with defined risk vs naked wings; best tradeoff for short-term range bias.
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 165/152.5 put wing and 180/195 call wing to collect elevated front-week IV while capping gap losses.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long June strangle
Buy 2026-06-18 $155.00 put + buy $190.00 call
Debit: $16.47-$20.13
Max loss: $20.13
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 134.87 / 210.13
Trigger: Trim profitable leg after move; consider selling shorter-dated calls to monetize post-crush IV drop.
Keeps event convexity and avoids front-week crush by using June expiries; profits from large surprise moves.
Outperforms: Buy 6/18 155 put + 190 call to capture outsized moves with wider strikes and lower theta vs a straddle.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Front-week short strangle
Sell 2026-04-24 $165.00 put + sell $180.00 call
Credit: $4.09-$4.99
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $4.99
BE: 160.01 / 184.99
Trigger: Close or hedge into release; monitor put flow and borrow dynamics.
Highest premium but unlimited upside risk and exposed to pin/gap; inferior risk profile.
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 165 put + 180 call to harvest elevated front-week IV.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Front-week IV and concentrated put flow amplify tail risk
!Elevated short-interest/borrow risk could exacerbate moves if covers occur pre/post-release
!GEX pinning can cause exaggerated intraday moves around listed strikes
!Event timing sensitivity (confirm exact release timestamp) increases execution risk

What to Watch

?Confirm earnings release time (expect high sensitivity around timestamp)
?Unusual prints at 180/185 and 140 strikes and ensuing delta hedging
?Price action around $150–$165 (max pain / guardrails)
?Post-announcement borrow/cover flow and rapid IV collapse for front-week expiries
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.