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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $225.78EOD only
Max Pain
$187.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$16.27
7.2% from close
Price Gap
-38.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 23, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

7.5/10 — Best strategy is defined-risk premium harvesting (short premium or put spreads) ahead of the small near-term expected move; primary risk is a guidance/earnings surprise that blows past the implied move and breaks dealer pinning.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 14.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Dealers are net long gamma (GEX +$110.9M) and flow is strongly bullish; that creates a pinning regime around $170–$175 which favors selling vol into the event rather than buying it.
📅Next ORCL earnings are on 2026-06-10 (56d) — the nearest binary event implied moves (2d/9d/16d) are market-derived expected moves around short expirations
📌Dealers are pinning around $170–$175 (GEX +$18.1M at $170.00 and +$16.6M at $175.00) — favors premium sellers in the immediate window
⚠️Max pain across front expirations is much lower ($148.00) — long-term structural call walls exist above $190 but short-term dealer pinning is near spot, so watch for regime flips

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,714 (20.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-10 (56 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$6.42 (3.8%)
  • 2026-04-24 (9d): ±$12.00 (7.1%)
  • 2026-05-01 (16d): ±$15.97 (9.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week expirations show elevated IV (2d ATM 52.3%, 9d ATM 53.5%, 16d ATM 54.6%) but the term-structure is fairly flat through 1 month with a modest rise into the June 18 64d tenor (ATM 58.8%).

Crush estimate: Moderate — front-cycle IV (2–16d) should compress after any binary event given dealer positioning and the small near-term EM; expect a meaningful but not extreme crush (front IV ≈52–55% down several vol points).

Skew: Downside put skew is present (higher IVs on deep ITM puts and long-dated puts) but overall flow and premium concentration is skewed to calls (heavy call premium at $160–200 strikes).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: ORCL has a 75% historical beat rate (3/4) and recent beats have been modestly positive; historical moves often stay within or close to the implied EM bands.

Directional bias: Slight upside bias into earnings given the 75% beat rate and deterministic net premium inflow (Net Premium +$134.8M) feeding call-heavy positioning.

Key Levels

1$135.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $163.38/$176.23; 1w $157.81/$181.81
3Max pain pins: $148 (2026-04-17); $148 (2026-04-24); $149 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Large concentrated call premium at near-spot strikes ($160, $165, $170, $175 and $200).

Suggests dealer call selling (short call/delta) and bullish client positioning that supports pinning around $170–$175.

Notable put OI concentration at $135 (13,714 OI) and unusual active trading in short-dated $170/$167.50 puts.

Creates a lower gamma flip (~$135) and a structural put floor, but those strikes are materially below spot — near-term pin remains higher.

Net premium flows strongly bullish (+$134.8M) and P/C volume ratio low (0.27).

Skews tradeability toward premium sellers and compresses realized post-event IV moves unless fundamental surprise occurs.

Strategies

Defined-risk put credit (sell short-dated put spread)
Sell 2026-04-24 $162.50/$157.50 put spread
Credit: $1.13-$1.38
Max loss: $3.62
Max gain: $1.38
BE: $161.12
Trigger: Close before or immediately after the event if IV compresses >4–6 vol points; widen or roll down if underlying breaches support with rising IV.
Best risk-adjusted way to harvest front premium given dealer pinning near $170–$175, support at $153.83, and elevated short-cycle IV.
Outperforms: Sell a near-term put (target ~30-delta) and buy a lower put ~5–10 points wide to cap downside; use 9–37d expirations to sit inside 1w–1m EM guardrails.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Front-cycle short strangle (sell both wings inside EM)
Sell 2026-04-17 $165.00 put + sell $175.00 call
Credit: $2.47-$3.01
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.01
BE: 161.99 / 178.01
Trigger: Tight size, predefine stop-losses for gaps, and consider buying protection or closing into any IV spike or 1–2% gap move.
Highest premium capture inside tight 2–16d EM rails; GEX and bullish flow favor range retention in absence of major news.
Outperforms: Sell a front-cycle call and put around 20-delta (strike selection inside the 2d–16d EM bounds). Keep position small due to undefined tail risk.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk from guidance or unexpected revenue commentary — a single headline can blow past the EM rails and produce large directional moves.
!IV crush will reduce value for long-vol buyers post-event; front IV likely to compress several vol points — hurts long straddles/strangles unless move is large.
!Liquidity is robust around key strikes ($160–$200) but widen bid-ask spreads in the nearest 2d expiration can increase execution slippage.
!Dealer pinning (GEX +$110.9M concentrated at $170/$175) lowers realized volatility but concentrates risk if pin breaks quickly.
!Short premium positions carry undefined loss potential; defined-risk spreads (put credit, iron condor) manage that exposure better.

What to Watch

?Front-expiry IV moves (2d and 9d expirations): watch ATM IV change from 52.3%/53.5% to detect whether sellers are already pressing.
?Price action relative to pin magnets: $170.00 and $175.00 (GEX concentrations) and deterministic support $153.83 — breach of pins changes the regime.
?Unusual activity in short-dated $170/$167.50 puts and $172.50 calls (listed) for directional flow before settlement.
?Net premium flows and P/C volume intra-day — continued call-heavy inflows increase pinning probability.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.