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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $192.08EOD only
Max Pain
$177.50
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.35
5.4% from close
Price Gap
-14.58
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 23, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-IV, bearish regime with dealer gamma negative (GEX -$55.4M) and spot sitting below the gamma flip (~$135). Best strategy: premium-selling inside the 1-week EM or a defined-risk directional spread that benefits from downside or limited upside (e.g., short strangle into the 1-week 04/17 expiration or a small debit call spread for a controlled upside bet). Key risk: a gap move beyond the 1-week EM rails ($129.74 - $145.99) that defeats short premium and triggers dealer unwind.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (bearish); -0.5 spot 4.9% below MP
Most important: Monitor price vs gamma flip at ~$135 — below it dealers amplify moves and negative gamma can accelerate gaps.
⚠️Gamma flip ~ $135 — dealers are net short gamma (GEX -$55.4M); price below this can accelerate downside moves.
📌Max pain for 04/10 sits at $145 while spot is $137.86 — short premium sellers can use this to frame trade width, but be mindful of the negative GEX.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Gamma flip ~ $135 (put OI concentration 13,211, ~2.1% below spot); below this dealers amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-10 (TBD)term_structure_kink

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): : $134.59 - $141.13 (±$3.27, 2.4%)
  • 2026-04-17 (8d): $129.74 - $145.99 (±$8.12, 5.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Kinked near-term: 1d ATM 56.7% (04/10), 8d ATM 50.5% (04/17) then 15d 51.1% — front-month IV elevated relative to the 1-2 week term.

Crush estimate: ~5-12 vol pts on event expirations; intraday/next-day IV likely to mean-revert back toward the 1w-2w ATM range (~50-51%).

Skew: Puts are heavier in absolute OI near spot (notably $135 put OI 13,211) and longer-dated put premium flow dominates (top premium flows show massive put net premium at high strikes like $200-$220 with net negative), suggesting downside hedging demand and richer put-side premium.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters beat: 2026-02-28, 2025-11-30, 2025-05-31)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided as a numeric series, but recent beats and interim moves indicate occasional outsized gaps (e.g., +0.06 and +0.38 EPS surprises).

Directional bias: Leans bullish on beats historically but current options flow/positioning is bearish; available = true

Key Levels

1$135.00 gamma flip
2$145.00 max pain (2026-04-10)
3EM 1w rails: $129.74 - $145.99

Flow Highlights

Large put OI concentration at $135.00 (13,211 OI) and $140.00 put OI 11,454 / near-term put clusters (e.g., $140 put OI=8,035 in top OI list)

Significant dealer hedging and client protection on downside; contributes to gamma flip ~ $135 and explains negative GEX (dealer short gamma) that can accelerate downside moves below $135.

Top premium flow is overwhelmingly negative net premium on calls vs puts at high strikes (e.g., $200.00 Net $-118,288,282; $210 Net $-100,664,319)

Large institutional put buying/rolls at far tails — overall flow is net buying protection rather than directional bullish call buying; aligns with the 'Bearish' flow regime.

Unusual intraday buying interest in short-dated calls around 135-139 strikes for 04/10 and 04/17 (ORCL260410C00138000 vol 4,855 OI 109, ORCL260410C00139000 vol 2,643 OI 110, ORCL260417C00138000 vol 894 OI 141).

Either short-dated directional call plays or volatility-driven positioning; small relative OI but elevated flow can bump short-dated IV into expiry.

Strategies

Short strangle (defined risk awareness: small sizing)
Sell 04/17 135 P and sell 04/17 145 C (both short, collect premium).
Credit: $5.51-$5.75
Max loss: Variable (large) depending on assignment — recommended defined sizing or pair with wings
Max gain: $5.51
BE: Downside BE: 135 - 5.51 = $129.49; Upside BE: 145 + 5.51 = $150.51
Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before 04/17 if IV remains elevated and stock is inside the 1w EM rails ($129.74 - $145.99).
Collects rich near-term premium (asks/bids show ~$4.05 bid for the 135P and ~$1.46 bid for the 145C — combined bid ~ $5.51). Negative GEX and bearish flow make pinning/pullback below $135 possible, but max pain at $145 and concentrated call OI at higher strikes make selling premium attractive if sized carefully.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 1-week EM ($129.74 - $145.99) and IV decays into expiry.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond either breakeven (below ~$129.5 or above ~$150.5) or IV spikes further into expiry.
Long 04/17 straddle (volatility play)
Buy 04/17 140 Call and Buy 04/17 140 Put (straddle at 140).
Max loss: $11.55
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Downside 140 - 11.55 = $128.45; Upside 140 + 11.55 = $151.55
Trigger: Enter if you expect a >~6% move by 04/17 or if IV has not already collapsed; otherwise wait for front-month IV to reprice higher intraday.
140 call ask 4.90 + 140 put ask 6.65 = ask sum ~ $11.55 (max loss). Use as a pure volatility play when you expect earnings-like guidance or a macro catalyst to move the stock; avoids directional exposure but is expensive given high ATM IV.
Outperforms: Actual move into expiry exceeds the 1-week EM (±$8.12) by a comfortable margin or if an intraday gap/re-rate occurs.
Underperforms: Price pins inside EM and IV collapses; heavy put OI near spot can cause pinning and large IV crush would kill premium.
Bull call spread (defined risk upside)
Buy 04/17 138 Call (last $4.10) and Sell 04/17 145 Call (ask ~1.50) — net debit ~ $2.60.
Max loss: $2.60
Max gain: $4.40
BE: Entry BE ≈ 137.86 + 2.60 = $140.46; max payoff at 145.
Trigger: Use when you have a modest bullish view or expect a post-announcement pop but want defined risk.
Cheap way to buy upside with limited risk using observed flow (unusual/last prints show 138 call activity) and leveraging the high call ask/change differential between 138 and 145. Fits bearish skew regime by limiting capital at risk.
Outperforms: Stock rallies above ~$140.50 and moves toward mid-$140s by expiry.
Underperforms: Stock stalls below ~$140 or IV collapses dramatically without price action.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 1-week EM ±$8.12 covers $129.74 - $145.99; a guidance surprise or market gap can easily exceed these bounds and blow up short premium.
!IV crush: Front-dated IV is elevated (1d ATM 56.7%, 8d ATM 50.5%). Buying vol is expensive; selling vol risks severe gap losses but benefits from IV mean reversion.
!Liquidity: Good overall liquidity (Total OI 1,928,058, total volume 375,368). Some strikes (e.g., 135, 140, 145, 150) have deep OI and tighter markets; very far strikes or odd increments may be less liquid.
!Dealer gamma: Negative GEX (-$55.4M) increases non-linear risk — below the gamma flip (~$135) dealer hedging can exacerbate moves to the downside.
!Sizing: Keep short-premium positions small and defined-risk or hedge with wings; prefer defined-risk spreads rather than naked short options given negative gamma environment.

What to Watch

?Price relation to gamma flip ~$135 (crossing below increases dealer selling pressure).
?IV trajectory into 04/10 and 04/17 expirations (watch 1d IV 56.7% and 8d IV 50.5%).
?Put OI concentration at $135 (13,211) and $140 put OI (11,454) — these can act as support/pinning.
?Unusual short-dated call prints around 135-139 for 04/10 and 04/17 (could force short-covering or signal directional bets).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.