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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $181.46EOD only
Max Pain
$180.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.10
5.0% from close
Price Gap
-1.46
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
39
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 23, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 71 days (June 10). Current IV is elevated (58%), but term structure shows no immediate kink, suggesting the earnings premium is not yet fully priced. The stock is pinned at max pain ($147) with strong gamma support. Historical EPS beat rate is high (75%), but recent moves have been volatile. Best strategy is a short premium play via an iron condor, capitalizing on elevated IV and the stock's tendency to pin. Key risk is a large directional gap exceeding the expected move, amplified by low gamma flip at $118.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 for explicit earnings date; +0.5 for strong historical beat rate; +0 for VIX not provided; -0 for data quality sufficient
Most important: No IV kink at nearest expirations; earnings premium not yet built in. Gamma pinning at $147 is dominant near-term force.
📅Earnings confirmed for 2026-06-10. 71 days out.
⚖️Stock pinned at max pain $147 with +$4.2M GEX. Near-term direction likely constrained.
⚠️Massive OTM put flow ($260, $270) is a structural hedge, not a near-term forecast. Do not over-interpret.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 58%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$4.2M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-119.6M, P/C 0.82)
Spot vs MP
At max pain $147 (spot $147.11)
Gamma flip: ~$118.00 — Below $118, dealers amplify moves downward. Significant put OI at $118 provides a floor.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-10 (71 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 6/18 (79d): ±$30.70 (20.9%)
  • 7/17 (108d): ±$34.52 (23.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep upward slope from 39.8% (2d) to ~54-57% (3-12 months). No sharp kink near earnings date, suggesting earnings IV not yet elevated.

Crush estimate: Cannot estimate precisely; crush will be significant if IV rises into event from current ~57% base.

Skew: Net premium flow heavily negative (-$119.6M), driven by massive put buying at $260, $270, $250. This is likely hedging/structured flow, not a near-term directional bet.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for precise EM comparison, but moves have been significant: +6.3% (Feb '26), +37.8% (Nov '25), -0.7% (Aug '25), +3.7% (May '25).

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters gap up post-earnings

Key Levels

1$147 (max pain, spot)
2$118 (gamma flip, major put OI)
3$170 (major call OI wall)
4EM 6/18: $115 - $177.5

Flow Highlights

Massive put buying at $260 (4/17), $270 (6/18), $250 (4/17) — millions in premium paid.

Likely institutional hedging/structured product flow, not a near-term earnings bet. Creates a long volatility footprint in the portfolio.

Heavy volume in $149C 4/02 (2,316 vol vs 753 OI).

Near-term bullish bet targeting a move above $149, aligning with pinning at $147 max pain.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Post-Earnings IV Sale)
Sell $130/$125P x $165/$170C 6/18
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $127.50
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV for 6/18 expiration rises above 60%
Capitalizes on elevated IV into earnings. Wings set outside 6/18 expected move ($115-$177.5) for a high probability trade. Historical beats but volatile moves warrant wide wings.
Outperforms: Stock stays within wide $125-$165 range post-earnings; IV crushes.
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside condor wings (>$12.5 move from spot).
Long Put Diagonal (Hedged Downside Bet)
Buy $140P 6/18, Sell $133P 4/10 (or weekly pre-earnings)
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Substantial if stock drops sharply post-earnings
BE: Varies; below $140 minus net debit
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings if you anticipate a miss or weak guidance.
Provides cheap(er) downside exposure. Aligns with massive OTM put flow indicating broader hedging demand. Gamma flip at $118 suggests accelerated selling below that level.
Outperforms: Stock sells off post-earnings. Short near-term put finances long-dated put, reducing cost.
Underperforms: Stock rallies or stays flat; theta decay on long put.
Strangle Sale (Near-Term Pin Play)
Sell $144P / $150C 4/10
Credit: $1.20-$1.60
Max loss: Unlimited beyond strikes
Max gain: $1.40
BE: $142.60
Trigger: Enter now, given pin at $147 and high near-term IV (47.1% for 4/10).
Exploits current gamma pinning regime at max pain. 4/10 expected move is ±$9.05, so strikes are well inside, making this a high-risk, high-probability pin bet.
Outperforms: Stock remains pinned near $147 through 4/10 expiry; IV decays.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond strangle strikes (>±$3).

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Historical moves are volatile (+38%, +6%, -1%, +4%). A repeat of a large beat could easily exceed the 6/18 expected move (20.9%).
!IV Crush: If IV rises significantly into earnings (from current 57%), the post-event crush could be 15-20 volatility points, benefiting short premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Excellent (1.98M OI). Strikes are granular near spot.
!Sizing: Keep short premium positions small (<2% risk capital) due to gap risk. Long premium positions require defined risk sizing.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for Jun/Jul expirations as earnings approaches — look for kink to develop.
?Spot price behavior relative to $147 max pain and $118 gamma flip.
?Any unusual flow in Jun/Jul options for clues on earnings expectations.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.