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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $181.46EOD only
Max Pain
$180.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.10
5.0% from close
Price Gap
-1.46
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
39
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
ORCL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 23, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 69 days (June 10). IV remains elevated (56%), but term structure still shows no sharp kink, indicating earnings premium is not yet priced. The regime has shifted from pinning to trending (negative GEX), removing a near-term constraint. Historical moves are large and predominantly positive. Best strategy is a long volatility position to capture the potential for another outsized move, with a defined-risk short premium play as a secondary, higher-probability option. Key risk is timing the entry for long vol before IV rises.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 for explicit earnings date; +1 for strong historical beat rate and large moves; +0 for VIX not provided; +0 for data quality sufficient
Most important: Gamma regime flipped from pinning to trending (GEX -$12.7M). This removes the near-term anchor at $147 and increases the likelihood of a larger pre-earnings drift, making long volatility plays more attractive.
📅Earnings confirmed for 2026-06-10. 69 days out.
🔄Gamma regime changed from Pinning to Trending (GEX -$12.7M). Near-term pinning force removed.
⚠️Massive OTM put flow ($260, $270) persists. This is a structural hedge, not a near-term forecast.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 56%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-12.7M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-102.7M, P/C 0.94)
Spot vs MP
At max pain $147 (spot $146.38)
Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Below $135, dealers amplify moves downward due to concentrated put OI.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-10 (69 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 6/18 (77d): ±$30.85 (21.1%)
  • 7/17 (106d): ±$34.55 (23.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steady upward slope from 46.3% (8d) to ~55-57% (3-12 months). No sharp kink near June expirations.

Crush estimate: Cannot estimate precisely; crush will be significant if IV rises into event from current ~57% base.

Skew: Net premium flow remains heavily negative (-$102.7M), driven by OTM put buying ($260, $270). This is structural hedging. Near-term skew shows elevated put volume at $139 and $136 for April expirations.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient EM history, but absolute moves are large: +6.3%, +37.8%, -0.7%, +3.7%.

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters gap up post-earnings

Key Levels

1$147 (max pain, spot)
2$135 (gamma flip, major put OI)
3$170 (major call OI wall)
4EM 6/18: $115 - $177.5

Flow Highlights

Large put volume in $139P and $136P for April expirations (4/10, 4/17), with volume 9x and 8x OI respectively.

Near-term defensive positioning or speculation of a pullback to the $136-$139 area before earnings.

Continued massive OTM put flow at $260, $270, $250 (millions in premium).

Persistent structural hedging, not a near-term directional signal. Represents a long volatility footprint in the market.

Strategies

Long Straddle (Volatility Accumulation)
Buy $145 straddle 6/18
Max loss: $30.85
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 114.15 / 175.85
Trigger: Enter 4-6 weeks before earnings (late April/early May) if IV for 6/18 remains below 60%.
Historical moves are large and skewed upward. The shift to a trending gamma regime increases pre-earnings drift potential. This is a bet on IV rising into the event and/or a large post-earnings gap.
Outperforms: Stock makes a move >±21% (exceeds 6/18 EM) post-earnings; or IV expands significantly into the event.
Underperforms: Stock trades in a tight range into earnings and IV crushes post-event.
Short Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $125/$120P x $170/$175C 6/18
Credit: $3.50-$4.50
Max loss: $1.50
Max gain: $3.50
BE: 121.5 / 173.5
Trigger: Enter 2-3 weeks before earnings if IV for 6/18 rises above 65%.
Capitalizes on elevated IV into earnings. Wings are set beyond the 6/18 expected move bounds ($115-$177.5) for a higher probability of success, acknowledging historical volatility.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the wide $120-$170 range post-earnings; IV crushes.
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside condor wings (>21% move from spot).
Put Calendar Spread (Bearish/Volatility Play)
Buy $135P 6/18, Sell $135P 4/17
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Substantial if stock drops to ~$135 near 4/17 expiry, then falls further post-earnings.
BE: Complex; optimal if stock is near $135 at April expiry.
Trigger: Enter now, targeting the $135 gamma flip level and unusual put flow at $136/$139.
Aligns with near-term put flow and the $135 gamma flip level. Finances a longer-dated put for a potential post-earnings drop. Benefits from IV term structure (selling lower IV near-term, buying higher IV longer-dated).
Outperforms: Stock drifts down to the $135-$139 support area by April expiry, then drops sharply post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock rallies steadily; near-term short put decays faster than long put appreciates.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: High. Historical moves include a +38% surge. A repeat could easily exceed the 21% expected move for June.
!IV Crush: Will be a major factor for long premium strategies if IV rises significantly from current levels. Entry timing is critical.
!Liquidity: Excellent (1.79M OI). Strikes are granular.
!Sizing: Long premium positions require defined risk sizing (1-2% capital). Short premium positions should be small (<2% risk capital) due to tail risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for June/July expirations — wait for a kink to develop as the primary signal to enter short premium trades.
?Spot price behavior relative to $135 gamma flip and $147 max pain for near-term direction.
?Unusual flow in June options for clues on earnings expectations.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.