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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $219.51EOD only

Max Pain

$215.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.50

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-4.51

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

NVDA Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 2026-05-20 (44 days out). IV normal, but term structure shows elevated IV for May expirations (40.1% for 5/22 vs 35.7% for 4/08), indicating earnings anticipation. Strong pinning regime with +$389.1M GEX and spot above max pain supports selling premium within expected move bounds. Key risk is gap beyond structural OI walls.

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning)

Most important: Gamma pinning at $177.50 and $180.00 creates strong magnet effect; historical EPS beat rate 100% suggests potential upside surprise.

📅Earnings expected 2026-05-20, 44 days out; confirm exact date as it approaches.

📊Max pain rising from $172 to $180 over expirations, aligning with pinning levels.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Flow Regime

Mixed

Spot vs MP

Above

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Gamma flip at ~$140 is far below spot (-21.2%), indicating dealers are long gamma near current price, suppressing volatility.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (44 days)explicit

Expected moves:

5/08 (32d): ±$14.50 (8.2%)
5/15 (39d): ±$16.25 (9.2%)
5/22 (46d): ±$20.23 (11.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated for May expirations: 40.1% for 5/22 vs 35.7% for 4/08, indicating earnings anticipation.

Crush estimate: ~5-8 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~35%

Skew: P/C ratios at 0.90 show balanced flow; near-term puts slightly richer (e.g., $175 put IV 38.4% vs $175 call IV 39.7%).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No historical move data provided; EPS surprise average +$0.05.

Directional bias: All quarters beat EPS estimates, suggesting upside bias.

Key Levels

1$177.50 (GEX +$4.9M, pin magnet)

2$175.00 (max pain, put OI cluster)

3$172.50 (support from put OI)

4$180.00 (GEX +$14.4M, call OI cluster)

5$182.50 (GEX +$3.2M)

6$185.00 (call OI cluster)

Flow Highlights

Heavy $180.00 CALL buying for 4/08: $36,319,760 premium vs $13,699,598 PUT premium, net $22,620,162.

Strong bullish flow near spot, likely hedging or directional bets.

Unusual $177.50 CALL 4/08: Vol=38,695 vs OI=4,865 (8.0x), IV 35.8%.

Active at-the-money trading, possibly earnings positioning.

Strategies

Iron condor

Sell $167.50/$162.50P x $187.50/$192.50C 5/22

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: $6.50

Max gain: $4.00

BE: $166.00

Trigger: Enter 2-3 weeks before earnings if IV >40%

Elevated IV for May expirations (40.1%) offers premium; pinning regime supports range-bound move.

Outperforms: Stock stays within 5/22 EM bounds ($157.41-$197.86) and IV crushes.

Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >15% or pinning fails.

Long straddle

Buy $180 straddle 5/22

Max loss: $20.23

Max gain: Unlimited

BE: $159.77

Trigger: Enter if IV dips below 38% pre-earnings

Historical 100% EPS beat rate suggests potential surprise; elevated IV may not fully price in move.

Outperforms: Actual move exceeds 5/22 EM (±$20.23) by >20%.

Underperforms: Stock pins near $180 and IV crushes post-earnings.

Put credit spread

Sell $167.50/$162.50P 5/22

Credit: $1.20-$1.80

Max loss: $3.80

Max gain: $1.80

BE: $166.30

Trigger: Enter if spot holds above $175 support

Strong support at $175 and $177.50 from GEX concentration; put OI clusters at $167.50 provide buffer.

Outperforms: Stock stays above $167.50, benefiting from pinning and positive GEX.

Underperforms: Break below $162.50, triggering gamma flip acceleration.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 5/22 EM ±$20.23 (11.4%) is wide; structural call wall at $195-$200 and put floor at $140-$150 may limit extremes.

!IV crush: Estimated 5-8 vol pts post-earnings could erode long premium strategies if move is muted.

!Liquidity: High (12.5M OI, 1M volume) ensures tight spreads.

!Sizing: Moderate due to pinning but watch for break below $172.50 support.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May expirations

?Spot vs $177.50 and $180.00 pin levels

?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $175 put 5/22)

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.