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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $223.47EOD only
Max Pain
$215.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.18
5.9% from close
Price Gap
-8.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
51
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.81
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings inferred for ~May 20, 2026 (50 days out). IV is normal (47%) but term structure shows a clear kink at the 5/15 expiration, indicating earnings pricing. Historical pattern of beating EPS and under-moving vs. expected move favors premium-selling strategies.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 clear term structure kink; -0.0 no explicit date but inferred
Most important: Stock consistently beats EPS but moves less than the expected move, making defined-risk short premium attractive.
⚠️Earnings date is inferred (est. May 20). Confirm via company IR as date approaches.
📈100% EPS beat rate over last 4 quarters with consistent positive surprises.
🎯Spot ($174.40) is well above gamma flip ($140) and near near-term max pain ($175), supporting pinning/pullback thesis.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 47%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$316.1M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$132.4M, P/C 0.78)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 93.8% (spot $174.40 vs MP $90)
Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Below $140, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (50 days)inferred (est. from term structure kink at 5/15 and provided EPS date)

Expected moves:

  • 5/15 (45d): ±$18.30 (10.5%) [$156.10 - $192.70]
  • 5/08 (38d): ±$16.48 (9.4%) [$157.92 - $190.87]

IV Setup

Term structure: Kink at 5/15 (37.5%) vs. 4/24 (35.1%) and 6/18 (41.5%). IV rises into May, consistent with earnings pricing.

Crush estimate: ~4-6 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~33-35% range.

Skew: Flow is bullish (P/C 0.78), but top OI shows massive $140 Put and $200 Call walls.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot calculate from provided data (no historical move %). EPS surprise consistently positive.

Directional bias: All 4 quarters showed positive EPS surprise.

Key Levels

1$140 gamma flip / put OI wall
2$175 max pain cluster
3$200 call OI wall
4EM: $156 - $193 (5/15)

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish premium flow at $175C (+$46M) and $180C (+$41M).

Strong institutional bullish bias into near-term expirations.

Unusual volume in 4/01 $177.50C (179k vol vs 10k OI) and $177.50P (41k vol vs 407 OI).

Potential gamma/volatility play for weekly expiry, not directly earnings-related.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Earnings Crush)
Sell $156/$150P x $193/$200C 5/15
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $4.50
Max gain: $3.00
BE: 153.50 / 195.50 (approx)
Trigger: Enter 10-14 days before estimated earnings (early May) if IV > 35%.
Historical tendency to beat but under-move supports selling the elevated IV around earnings. Strikes placed just outside the expected move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 10.5% expected move and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds expected move bounds (>$150 or >$199).
Bull Put Spread (Directional Bias)
Sell $160P / Buy $150P 5/15
Credit: $2.80-$3.80
Max loss: $7.20
Max gain: $3.80
BE: $157.20
Trigger: On any pullback toward $170, given bullish flow and historical EPS beats.
Leverages bullish flow (P/C 0.78, net prem +$132M) and positive earnings surprise history. $160 is below the lower expected move bound and near a key OI level.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $160 through expiration.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $157.20 and continues falling.
Long Straddle (Volatility Expansion)
Buy $175 straddle 5/15
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Stock price outside $175 ± debit
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >40% and spot is near $175.
A pure volatility play if you believe the market is underestimating potential for a large gap. High breakeven due to elevated IV.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 10.5% expected move (i.e., beyond $156 or $194).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $175 and IV crushes post-earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 10.5% expected move is significant ($18). A guidance miss could trigger a move toward the $140 put OI wall.
!IV crush: IV at 37.5% for the earnings expiry will likely drop 4-6 points, hurting long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Excellent (13M+ OI). No issues trading recommended strikes.
!Sizing: Size condors/verticals for max loss of 1-2% of portfolio due to binary event risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory in the May monthly expirations as the inferred earnings date approaches.
?Spot price action relative to the $175 max pain cluster and $180 call OI.
?Any unusual OTM put flow that could signal hedging for a larger-than-expected drop.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.