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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $192.53EOD only

Max Pain

$200.00

Next expiry Jun 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.97

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+7.47

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with high confidence: strong bullish flow, positive gamma pinning near $198 max pain, and spot below MP. Low VIX supports upside.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive pinning, +0.5 spot near MP, +1 VIX 18 → 9.0

Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma pinning near $198, spot below max pain, low VIX.
Conflicts: Resistance at $197.5-$200; gamma flip risk at $180.

📈Bullish flow and positive gamma alignment: net premium +$412.6M GEX.

🎯Spot $190.5 vs max pain $198 — 3.9% upside pin potential.

⚠️Gamma flip at $180 (7.7% below spot) — key downside risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal vs VIX 18; no excessive premium.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX $412.6M; pinning near $198 max pain.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flow with elevated call OI.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $190.5 vs $198 MP (3.9% below).

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to 6/29 expiry with max pain pinning; event-driven gamma effects.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$190.48$199.47

Upside to $198 max pain; range $190.48-$199.47.

Next 1 week

$188.12$201.82

Swing higher with resistance at $200; range $188.12-$201.82.

Next 2 weeks

$182.20$207.75

Wider range $182.2-$207.75; gamma flip risk at $180.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $198 (2026-06-29); $192 (2026-07-01); $200 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $190.48/$199.47; 1w $188.12/$201.82

Support: $182.20 · $180.00

Resistance: $197.50 · $200.00 · $207.75

Gamma flip: ~$180.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 83,325 (7.7% below spot)

Structural: Support $182.2 (gamma flip) and $180; resistance $197.5, $200, $207.75; max pain pins: $198 (6/29), $192 (7/1), $200 (7/2).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+412.6M

DEX: +339.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$180 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 83,325 (7.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer net gamma +$412.6M, positive; flip at ~$180 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV slightly rich vs VIX 18 but within normal range.

Term structure: Flattening into 6/29 expiry; slight contango after.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads to capture upside pin with defined risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $373.8M positive, PC vol ratio 0.57, bullish call-heavy flow.

Directional prints: 2.1 call 195 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol 466k vs OI 10k, 46x avg; heavy OTM call buying, bullish. 27.2 call 192.5 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol 97.6k vs OI 2k, 48.8x; aggressive call accumulation, bullish. 12.1 call 197.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol 188k vs OI 7k, 26.6x; OTM call buying, bullish sentiment.

Unusual: 12.1 put 192.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol 223k vs OI 7.6k, 29.3x; low premium $0.01, likely sold puts, neutral. 4.1 put 195 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol 108k vs OI 5.7k, 19.1x; cheap puts, possible hedging. 39.5 call 212.5 OTM 2026-07-01 — Vol 21.4k vs OI 1.1k, 18.7x; OTM call, speculative upside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside gamma flip if spot breaks $180.

!Resistance at $200 and $207.75 may cap upside.

!Event-specific volatility contraction after 6/29 expiry.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bullish risk reversal	Strong	Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00 call / sell 2026-09-18 $175.00 put Why now: Low VIX, bullish bias, high confidence; risk reversal captures upside with premium credit.	Unlimited downside if spot collapses below short put strike.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-09-18 $205.00/$240.00 call spread Why now: High call flow and positive gamma; limited risk with upside potential.	Max loss limited to debit; upside capped at short strike.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-31 $185.00/$170.00 put spread Why now: Spot above max pain; low VIX supports selling premium; bullish flow.	Max loss limited if spot drops below long put strike.

Top Plays

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00 call / sell 2026-09-18 $175.00 put

Buy Sep $200 call, sell Sep $175 put for a credit, expressing bullish view with defined risk on downside.

Why this play: Best captures strong bullish bias with unlimited upside and net credit, leveraging low VIX and heavy call flow.

Debit: $6.62-$8.09

Max loss: $175.00

BE: $175.00

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $182.2; consider rolling if underlying approaches $200 before expiration.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged upside with high confidence.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-09-18 $205.00/$240.00 call spread

Buy $205/$240 call spread targeting moderate upside with capped risk.

Why this play: Limited risk play on continued upside to $205-$240, supported by positive gamma and call flow.

Debit: $7.40-$9.05

Max loss: $9.05

BE: $214.05

Mgmt: Take profit near $240; cut if spot falls below $182.2.

Traders wanting defined risk/reward with bullish conviction.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $185.00/$170.00 put spread

Sell $185/$170 put spread, collecting premium with safety buffer above strong support.

Why this play: Neutral-bullish premium sale below max pain, benefiting from low VIX and bullish flow, but less direct upside.

Credit: $2.60-$3.17

Max loss: $11.83

BE: $181.83

Mgmt: Close early if VIX spikes; roll down if spot approaches $185.

Income-focused traders expecting limited downside in short term.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $182.2 support (gamma flip) → Enter nvda_1: Buy Sep $200 call, sell Sep $175 put for credit

IFSpot breaks above $200 resistance → Enter nvda_2: Buy Sep $205/$240 call spread

IFSpot stays above $185 with low VIX → Enter nvda_3: Sell Jul 31 $185/$170 put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot falls below $182.2 → Exit all bullish positions: nvda_1, nvda_2, nvda_3

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias high confidence. Key supports $182.2/$180, resistance $197.5/$200/$207.75. Invalidation at $182.2. Top play: Bullish Risk Reversal. Favor entries on pullback to support or breakout above $200.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.