NVDA
NVIDIA CorporationClose $205.19EOD onlyThis page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
Bullish bias with strong dealer gamma and flow support. Spot above $205 max pain, but pinning risk. Upside to $220 resistance, downside protected by $200 gamma flip. Event-driven week with multiple expiries.
Conflicts: Spot above MP 3.6%, resistance at $220, gamma flip at $200
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+881.0M
DEX: +403.7M shares
Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,875 (5.9% below spot))
NTM gamma: GEX +$881M (strong positive); DEX +403.7M shares; gamma flip ~$200 (put OI)
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 16.2 but normal for NVDA, event premium
Term structure: Flat near term due to weekly expiries, longer-dated contango
Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts at $200 support may capture premium near gamma flip
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium $608M bullish, P/C vol ratio 0.51 favors calls.
Directional prints: 3 call 212.5 OTM 2026-06-15 — Volume 569k vs OI 8.7k (65x) implies aggressive opening of upside calls, bullish bet. 30.7 call 227.5 OTM 2026-06-22 — Volume 10.9k vs OI 108 (100x) suggests new bullish flow, likely bought.
Unusual: 1.6 put 212.5 ITM 2026-06-15 — Extreme vol/OI 142x, IV 1.6% unusually low; indicates aggressive put buying, bearish hedge or speculation. 10.9 put 210 OTM 2026-06-15 — Vol 226k vs OI 1.9k (114x); low IV suggests opening put flow, bearish positioning. 30.7 call 227.5 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 100x, IV 30.7%; unusual call accumulation, upside speculation.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull call spread | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-08-21 $210.00/$220.00 call spread Why now: Unusual call flow at 212.5 and bullish gamma flip at 200 support upside. Spread limits cost while targeting resistance. | Max loss if spot stays below 210 by expiry; theta decay works against if move delayed. |
| Put credit spread | Moderate | Sell 2026-07-17 $200.00/$195.00 put spread Why now: Put OI high at 200, with net negative gamma flip. Selling puts benefits from theta decay and support. | If spot drops below 200, max loss incurred; tail risk from gamma flip failure. |
| Bullish risk reversal | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-08-21 $220.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $200.00 put Why now: Flow shows aggressive call buying and put unwinding; risk reversal captures skew and expected rally. | If spot drops sharply below 200, put leg loses; upside capped by short call leg if not long? Actually long call has no cap. |
| Long call | Moderate | Buy 2026-08-21 $220.00 call Why now: Unusual call volume and bullish flow support asymmetric upside; long call for convexity. | Time decay accelerates if spot stays flat; requires directionality. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.