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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $210.69EOD only

Max Pain

$205.00

Next expiry Jun 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.39

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-5.69

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong positive dealer gamma and bullish flow, but spot is significantly above max pain ($185-$208), posing pin risk. Maintain upside focus within 1w range $203.97-$217.42, with support at $200 gamma flip.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot 13.9% from MP; +1 VIX 16

Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma $465M, max pain pins at lower levels
Conflicts: Spot far above max pain, gamma flip at $200, resistance $220+

🟢Dealer gamma $+465M supports pinning near $185-$208; call walls above

⚠️Spot 13.9% above MP; risk of mean reversion if gamma flips

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV relative to VIX 16.4; likely due to event-driven uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime with strong positive gamma ($465M); dealer hedging supports price stability towards strikes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium; call buying dominant.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot trades above max pain cluster ($185-$208); potential drag unless volume absorbs.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiring June 18, 22, 24 weekly options; near-term pinning dynamics dominate.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$203.97$217.42

Support $203.97, resistance $217.42; maintain upside bias but respect gamma flip at $200

Next 2 weeks

$199.24$222.14

Wider range $199.24-$222.14; uncertainty beyond 1w due to event horizon

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-06-18); $205 (2026-06-22); $208 (2026-06-24)

EM guardrails: 1w $203.97/$217.42

Support: $200.00 · $199.24

Resistance: $220.00 · $222.14 · $230.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,595 (5.1% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $185/$205/$208; 1w EM guardrails $203.97/$217.42; support $200 (gamma flip) and $199.24; resistance $220, $222.14, $230.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+465.1M

DEX: +418.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,595 (5.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer gamma at $+465.1M, delta $+418.7M shares. Gamma flip near $200 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV is elevated compared to VIX, reflecting event-specific premium. Rich for options sellers.

Term structure: Front-end elevated, backwardation into weekly expiries; event kinks likely at June 18, 22, 24.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider put spreads or call verticals if targeting upside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium heavily call-biased ($860M net, put/call vol ratio 0.57), signaling strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 73 call 197.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 80.9, massive new buying. Bullish: bought for upside exposure. Preferred read: bought. 7.4 call 212 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 218k, OI 13k, vol/OI 16.9. High volume at low premium suggests aggressive bullish positioning. Preferred read: bought. 9.2 put 210 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 230k, OI 23k, vol/OI 9.9. Large put volume likely protective hedging or bearish positioning. Preferred read: bought for hedging.

Unusual: 73 call 197.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 80.9, extreme ratio suggests new large bullish bet. 98.4 put 150 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 41.9, deep OTM put with high volume and IV, potentially a tail hedge or speculative short. 14.1 put 207.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 22.5, large volume relative to OI; likely hedging activity.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $200 could accelerate selloff if breached

!Spot far from max pain may trigger mean reversion

!Resistance at $220 and $230 caps upside

!Event risk: expiry pinning can fail

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $195.00/$170.00 put spread Why now: Range-bound bullish lean near $200 gamma support; put credit spread captures premium while limiting downside.	Break below short put strike activates gamma flip; max loss capped by long put.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $225.00/$250.00 call spread Why now: Debit spread benefits from continued momentum to resistance; limited loss if rally fails.	Time decay erodes premium if spot stagnates; resistance at $220 caps gains.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-02 $217.50/$227.50 call spread Why now: Call flow and gamma support bullish move within 1-week range.	Consolidation above $217 could cap gains; theta decay.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $200.00/$195.00 put spread Why now: Gamma flip at $200 strong support; low put vol.	Breach $200 accelerates selloff; max loss limited.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $215.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $200.00 put Why now: Heavy call flow; short put premium offsets call cost.	Short put assignment if below $200; unlimited upside.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread near Gamma Support

Sell 2026-08-21 $195.00/$170.00 put spread

Sell 195/170 put spread to capture upside bias with defined risk below key $200 support.

Why this play: Directly hedges gamma flip risk while collecting premium; best risk/reward alignment with bullish thesis and earnings tailwind.

Credit: $4.22-$5.15

Max loss: $19.85

BE: $189.85

Mgmt: Close at $200 break or 50% max profit; exit if spot drops below $195.

Moderate bullish traders seeking income with downside protection.

Bull Call Spread to Resistance

Buy 2026-08-21 $225.00/$250.00 call spread

Buy 225/250 call spread targeting $220-230 resistance zone with defined risk.

Why this play: Leveraged upside to resistance with limited cost; benefits from momentum but lower probability than PCS.

Debit: $4.88-$5.96

Max loss: $5.96

BE: $230.96

Mgmt: Take partial profits near $230; stop loss if spot closes below $215.

Aggressive bullish traders expecting a continuation toward resistance ahead of earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $200 (gamma flip) and bounces → THEN enter put credit spread pcs_nvda_1 (sell 195/170 put spread)

IFIF spot breaks above $217.42 with bullish volume → THEN enter bull call spread bcs_nvda_1 (buy 225/250 call spread)

IFIF spot breaks above $203.97 and consolidates near $205 → THEN enter short-dated bull call spread id=1 (buy 217.5/227.5 call spread)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes below $200 → THEN exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias targeting $220-$230 resistance, using put credit spreads for income near support and short-dated call spreads for momentum. Exit if $200 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.