Home Options NVDAReports

NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $207.41EOD only

Max Pain

$207.50

Next expiry Jun 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.35

1.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.09

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias toward $208 max pain by June 17 expiry, supported by bullish flow and strong dealer long gamma ($+184.9M). Spot is 1.4% below MP, implying upward pin. However, market weakness (SPY -1.25%) and gamma flip at $200 pose downside risk. Confidence is high (9.0) due to aligned GEX/flow and pinning setup.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 positive GEX pinning; +0.5 spot near MP; +0.5 VIX 18. Confidence base already high, no override needed.

Supports: Bullish flow, dealer long gamma $+184.9M, spot below max pain, pinning dynamics.
Conflicts: Market weakness (SPY -1.25%), gamma flip risk at $200, after expiry uncertainty.

🎯Spot at ~$205, 1.4% below max pain $208; pinning likely into expiry.

🛡️Gamma flip at $200 (put OI 102,910) is key downside risk if support breaks.

📈Bullish flow and +GEX strongly aligned, boosting confidence.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol; IV in line with typical range, though slightly elevated vs VIX due to event proximity.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Strongly positive gamma ($184.9M) with pinning to $208 max pain; gamma flip at $200 from put concentration.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow; net premium positive with call buying dominating, supporting an upward drift.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~$205 is 1.4% below max pain $208, incentivizing upward movement toward pin.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Thesis driven by June 17 weekly expiry pinning dynamics, with max pain and dealer gamma providing short-lived support.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$201.02$208.27

Upward drift toward $208 max pain; support at $201.02, resistance $208.27.

Next 1 week

$199.05$210.25

After expiry, may hold near $210 resistance; support at $199.05.

Next 2 weeks

$194.82$214.47

Uncertain after event; support $194.82, resistance $214.47.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $208 (2026-06-17); $186 (2026-06-18); $208 (2026-06-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $201.02/$208.27; 1w $199.05/$210.25

Support: $200.00 · $194.82

Resistance: $207.50 · $210.00 · $214.47

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,910 (2.3% below spot)

Structural: Support: 200 (gamma flip), 194.82 (2w low). Resistance: 207.5 (pre-expiry high), 208 (MP), 210, 214.47 (2w high). EM guardrails: 2d $201.02/$208.27; 1w $199.05/$210.25.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+184.9M

DEX: +408.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,910 (2.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer net long gamma $+184.9M, pinning to $208. Gamma flip at $200 defined by 102,910 put OI (2.3% below spot). Dealers are long gamma; no short gamma position.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV is elevated relative to VIX (18.44) due to expiry proximity, but vol remains normal historically.

Term structure: Front-end term structure elevated with kinks at weekly expiries; longer-dated vols are flatter.

Skew: Put skew is elevated for downside protection; consider call spreads to capture pinning to $208 with defined risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive net premium $18.2M, P/C vol 0.68, OI 0.87, net call buying.

Directional prints: 12.9 call 207.5 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 54, 261k vol vs 4.9k OI, OTM call bought, bullish 0DTE rally bet. 4.9 put 205 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 20, 279k vol vs 14.3k OI, ATM put, heavy selling or bearish hedge. 26.9 put 207.5 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 9, 131k vol vs 14.6k OI, ITM put, protective buy or short covering.

Unusual: 95.3 put 120 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 94, 13k vol vs 138 OI, deep OTM put, extreme ratio, possibly sold premium. 12.9 call 207.5 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 54, 262k vol vs 4.9k OI, OTM call opening, aggressive bullish 0DTE. 98 put 105 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 33, 3.5k vol vs 104 OI, deep OTM put, high vol relative to OI, likely bearish premium sale.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $200: if spot breaks below support, dealer hedging could accelerate selling.

!Market weakness: SPY -1.25% signals broad selloff, which may overwhelm pinning dynamics.

!Post-expiry void: after June 17, gamma support vanishes, leaving spot vulnerable to reversion.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-02 $195.00/$192.50 put spread Why now: High confidence pinning setup, net call flow, dealer long gamma supports $200 floor.	If spot breaks $200, gamma flip accelerates selloff; undefined tail risk.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $205.00/$207.50 call spread Why now: Bullish flow and positive GEX support upward drift; max pain $208.	If spot fails to rally, debit is lost; capped upside at $215.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-02 $197.50 cash-secured put Why now: High confidence in $200 support; net call flow and dealer gamma positive.	If spot drops below $200, forced assignment; potential downside to $190.
Long call	Weak	Buy 2026-07-02 $212.50 call Why now: Bullish bias, net call buying, IV moderate; limited downside if wrong.	Time decay if no move; earnings event risk 70 days out.

Top Plays

High Confidence Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $195.00/$192.50 put spread

Sell put spread to profit from $200 support and dealer gamma.

Why this play: Best captures pinning setup with defined risk.

Credit: $0.47-$0.58

Max loss: $1.92

BE: $194.42

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $200.

Traders wanting defined risk bull play.

Max Pain Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $205.00/$207.50 call spread

Buy call spread targeting upside drift to $207.50.

Why this play: Aligns with $208 max pain and bullish flow.

Debit: $1.08-$1.32

Max loss: $1.32

BE: $206.32

Mgmt: Take profit near $207.50 or cut at $200.

Traders seeking limited risk upside.

Support-Bet Cash-Secured Put

Sell 2026-07-02 $197.50 cash-secured put

Sell put to collect premium while backing support.

Why this play: High confidence in $200 floor, net call flow supports.

Credit: $2.70-$3.31

Max loss: $194.19

BE: $194.19

Mgmt: Roll if spot tests $200.

Income-focused traders with capital.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NVDA holds above $200 support with no break and volume confirms → THEN sell 2026-07-02 $195.00/$192.50 put credit spread for 0.47-0.58 credit

IFIF NVDA rallies above $207.5 resistance with bullish flow → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $205.00/$207.50 call spread for 1.08-1.32 debit

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF NVDA approaches $200 support and gamma flip is tested → THEN roll cash-secured put or exit put credit spread to reduce risk

Exit Triggers

EXITIF NVDA breaks below $200 gamma flip level → THEN close all bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish pinning to $208 MP by June 17. Support $200 is key. Prefer put credit spread near support; add bull call spread on breakout above $207.5. Monitor SPY weakness; exit if $200 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.