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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $208.65EOD only

Max Pain

$207.50

Next expiry Jun 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.75

2.3% from close

Price Gap

-1.15

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.83

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish near-term bias supported by strong GEX/flow alignment and positive dealer positioning. Spot below max pain ($210) creates upward pull, but resistance at $210 and broader tech weakness (QQQ -3.29%) pose risks. High confidence (8/10) with event-specific pinning.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive pinning, -0.5 spot 4.7% below MP, +0.5 VIX 19

Supports: GEX +$64.5M, bullish flow, high dealer delta (+335.7M shares), gamma flip near $200.
Conflicts: Spot 4.7% below MP ($210), broad tech selloff (QQQ -3.29%), resistance at $210.

🛡️Dealer gamma +$64.5M pins near $210 MP.

⚠️Spot 4.7% below MP; upward drift but resistance at $210.

📊Positive flow and high DEX support bullish bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal relative to history; VIX 19.49 moderate.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$64.5M positive; gamma flip ~$200 supports downside.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium; favorable put/call ratio.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~$200, 4.7% below MP $210, upward pull.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Monthly OPEX 6/24 creates pinning forces; positive gamma and bullish flow reinforce near-term bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$196.31$203.76

OPEX pin near $210, range caps at $203.76; break above needed.

Next 1 week

$192.39$207.69

Post-OPEX, gamma flip at $200 supports; resistance at $210.

Next 2 weeks

$187.21$212.86

Key levels: support 187.21, resistance 212.86; structural support 185.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $210 (2026-06-24); $208 (2026-06-26); $210 (2026-06-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $196.31/$203.76; 1w $192.39/$207.69

Support: $200.00 · $187.21 · $185.00

Resistance: $210.00 · $212.86 · $220.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,066 (0.0% below spot)

Structural: Support at 185 (2w lower guardrail), resistance at 220. Gamma flip at $200. Max pain pins at $210.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+64.5M

DEX: +335.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,066 (0.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma (+$64.5M) and long delta (+335.7M shares). Gamma flip near $200 provides strong downside support, favoring mean-reversion to max pain.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV rich vs VIX, reflecting event risk; elevated vs sector (QQQ -3.29%).

Term structure: Contango with OPEX kink; short-dated IV elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity: sell put spreads at $200, buy call spreads via risk reversal.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $114.8M, P/C vol 0.71.

Directional prints: 31.6 call 202.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 199.1: extreme new call buying, bullish. 32.4 call 205 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 71.4: aggressive call buying, bullish. 32.2 call 200 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 41.6: strong call accumulation, bullish.

Unusual: 31.6 call 202.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 199.1: extreme new call buying, bullish. 32.4 call 205 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 71.4: aggressive call buying, bullish. 32.2 call 200 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 41.6: strong call accumulation, bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broader tech selloff (QQQ -3.29%) could drag NVDA lower.

!Resistance at $210 may cap upside post-OPEX.

!Break below gamma flip at $200 could accelerate downside.

!Vol normalization may reduce premium for option sellers.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00/$230.00 call spread Why now: Positive dealer gamma, net call premium, spot below max pain. Spread limits cost and defines risk.	Resistance at $210 may cap gains; broader tech selloff could drag.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-09-18 $180.00/$165.00 put spread Why now: High IV (35-40%) offers attractive premium; put credit spread captures time decay and bullish bias.	Unexpected downside due to tech weakness could break below lower strike.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate	Buy 2026-09-18 $205.00 call / sell 2026-09-18 $180.00 put Why now: Bullish flow and strong dealer gamma support upside; short put at support to fund call.	Downside risk if stock drops below short put strike; defined loss but substantial.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $205.00 call Why now: High IV and bullish flow; long call offers convexity and limited downside.	Time decay; must be right on direction and timing; resistance at $210.

Top Plays

Defined Bullish Spread

Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00/$230.00 call spread

Buy $200/$230 call spread to profit from upside while capping loss.

Why this play: Best balances bullish bias with defined risk; capitalizes on positive dealer gamma and spot below max pain.

Debit: $9.36-$11.44

Max loss: $11.44

BE: $211.44

Mgmt: Exit near $210 resistance or if spot breaks below $200.

Traders seeking limited risk with high probability target.

Funded Bullish Reversal

Buy 2026-09-18 $205.00 call / sell 2026-09-18 $180.00 put

Buy $205 call, sell $180 put to benefit from upward skew.

Why this play: Leverages bullish flow and dealer gamma; short put at support funds long call for cheap upside.

Debit: $6.98-$8.53

Max loss: $180.00

BE: $180.00

Mgmt: Monitor tech drag; unwind if spot nears $180 put strike.

Traders comfortable with naked put risk seeking cost-effective delta.

Convex Bull Call

Buy 2026-08-21 $205.00 call

Buy $205 call to capture convexity from positive gamma and flow.

Why this play: Offers unlimited upside with limited loss, suitable for high-conviction bullish views.

Debit: $9.63-$11.77

Max loss: $11.77

BE: $216.77

Mgmt: Take profits near $210 resistance; cut loss if spot falls below $200.

Aggressive traders with high bullish conviction and event-driven outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $200 (gamma flip) and shows upward momentum → Enter Bull call spread: Buy 2026-09-18 $200/$230 call spread

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSpot approaches $210 resistance or rises >5% → Take partial profits or tighten stops on the Bull call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $200 (invalidation level) → Exit the $200/$230 call spread to limit loss to max loss

Tactical Summary

Bullish near-term bias with support at $200, resistance at $210. Favor $200/$230 call spread entry. Manage at $210 resistance; exit below $200.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.