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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $195.74EOD only

Max Pain

$202.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.54

1.8% from close

Price Gap

+6.76

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong dealer gamma ($297.6M) and bullish flow, with pinning toward $198 max pain ahead of monthly expiry. Spot below max pain supports upward drift within ranges.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive; +0.5 VIX 18.4

Supports: Positive dealer gamma ($297.6M), bullish flow, spot below max pain ($198), low VIX (18.4)
Conflicts: Potential gamma flip at $180, high IV may cap upside

🟢Gamma pinning toward $198 max pain

⚠️Gamma flip risk at $180 if support breaks

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high relative to VIX (18.4), elevated premiums reflecting event risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma $297.6M, pinning near $198 max pain with flip at $180.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flow, supporting upward bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain ($198), potential drift up towards pin.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Monthly option expiry on 2026-06-26 creates pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$188.56$196.50

Gamma pinning to $198 max pain

Next 1 week

$186.29$198.77

Positive GEX supports, resistance $200

Next 2 weeks

$181.60$203.45

Wider range; gamma flip at $180 provides support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $198 (2026-06-26); $200 (2026-06-29); $200 (2026-07-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $188.56/$196.50; 1w $186.29/$198.77

Support: $181.60 · $180.00

Resistance: $197.50 · $200.00 · $203.45

Gamma flip: ~$180.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 84,478 (6.5% below spot)

Structural: Support: $181.6, $180 (gamma flip); Resistance: $197.5, $200, $203.45; Max pain pin $198.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+297.6M

DEX: +339.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$180 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 84,478 (6.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma ($+297.6M) and delta (+339.7M shares), bullish, flip risk at $180.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX (18.4), indicating elevated implied volatility.

Term structure: Near-term elevated due to expiry, back months cheaper.

Skew: Put skew likely rich; consider call spreads for upside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $77.6M, P/C vol 0.67, bullish call dominance.

Directional prints: 12.1 call 195 OTM 2026-06-26 — 0DTE OTM call, vol 343k vs OI 15k, aggressive buying. Bullish. 30.5 call 207.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Deep OTM call, vol 163k vs OI 3.6k (44.7x), speculative buy. Bullish.

Unusual: 40 put 170 OTM 2026-07-31 — OTM put, vol 74k vs OI 1k (69.4x), likely bought for hedge/bearish. IV 40%. 65.7 put 210 ITM 2026-07-01 — OTM put, vol 10k vs OI 303 (34x), high IV 65.7%, new buying. Bearish. 156.3 put 95 OTM 2026-07-02 — Deep OTM put, vol 12k vs OI 527 (22x), extremely high IV 156%. Unusual.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gap through gamma flip at $180

!Failure to hold $188.56 support

!Sharp vol crush post-expiration

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-09-18 $220.00/$245.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk upside exposure with expiry after earnings, aligning with bullish bias.	Max loss = debit paid; time decay if spot stalls.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-09-18 $175.00/$150.00 put spread Why now: Collect premium while defining risk; expiration after earnings allows follow-through.	Max loss = width - credit; short strike risk if sharp drop.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-09-18 $175.00 cash-secured put Why now: Generate yield while willing to own NVDA at discount; expiry after earnings.	If NVDA drops below strike, assigned at loss; opportunity cost if rally.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-09-18 $220.00/$245.00 call spread

Captures upside momentum through earnings expiry.

Why this play: Best aligns with bullish thesis and strong call flow; defined risk with high reward.

Debit: $3.41-$4.16

Max loss: $4.16

BE: $224.16

Mgmt: Exit if NVDA breaks below $188.56 support.

Aggressive bullish traders.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-09-18 $175.00/$150.00 put spread

Sells put spreads to collect premium on support.

Why this play: Generates premium on bullish/neutral view; expiration after earnings provides time.

Credit: $4.58-$5.60

Max loss: $19.40

BE: $169.40

Mgmt: Close if spot drops below $175 strike.

Moderate bullish traders seeking income.

Cash-Secured Put

Sell 2026-09-18 $175.00 cash-secured put

Generates yield at a lower entry point.

Why this play: Least aggressive; yields income with willingness to own NVDA at discount.

Credit: $6.57-$8.03

Max loss: $166.97

BE: $166.97

Mgmt: Roll or accept assignment if tested.

Income-focused traders okay with assignment.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NVDA holds above $180 (gamma flip) with bullish flow → THEN enter Bull Call Spread (Buy 2026-09-18 $220/$245 call for 3.41-4.16).

IFIF NVDA pulls back to $181.6 support and stabilizes → THEN sell Put Credit Spread (Sell 2026-09-18 $175/$150 put spread for 4.58-5.60).

Exit Triggers

EXITIF NVDA closes below $181.6 → THEN exit Bull Call Spread to limit loss.

EXITIF NVDA drops below $175 → THEN close Put Credit Spread or roll.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias on strong dealer gamma and pinning to $198 max pain. Key support $180-$181.6, resistance $197.5-$200-$203.45. Use Bull Call Spread for upside exposure or Put Credit Spread for income. Exit if spot breaks below $181.6 (bull call) or $175 (put spread). Cash-Secured Put is a conservative alternative.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.