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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $199.00EOD only
Max Pain
$207.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.43
2.7% from close
Price Gap
+8.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
NVDA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias as flow is bullish and spot is below max pain, but negative gamma and trending regime suggest cautious upside. Key gamma flip at $180 provides downside support. Confidence 4/10.

Confidence:
4 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 3.3% below MP; +0.5 VIX 19 supports. Net 4.0.
Supports: Bullish flow, spot below MP, positive delta exposure (+341.9M shares).
Conflicts: Negative GEX, trending gamma, vol normal yet VIX elevated.
📈Bullish flow with net premium positive; dealers long delta.
⚠️Negative GEX -$41.6M; trending gamma amplifies moves.
📊Spot 3.3% below $202 max pain; pin to MP likely this week.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol: IV near 60th percentile, not elevated vs recent range.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: negative GEX, dealers hedge directionally, amplifying moves.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow: net premium positive, put/call ratio low, aggressive call buying.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below MP: spot $193.5 vs $202 max pain, suggests drift upward towards pin.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiry this week (0-3 DTE) with options pinning; thesis driven by gamma and max pain dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$192.20$199.29
Range $192.20-$199.29; bias to move toward $202 MP; resistance at $199.
Next 1 week
$192.47$199.02
Range $192.47-$199.02; post-expiry vol crush may cap upside.
Next 2 weeks
$184.04$207.44
Wider range $184.04-$207.44; negative gamma may pull spot lower if support breaks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $202 (2026-06-26); $202 (2026-06-29); $200 (2026-07-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $192.20/$199.29; 1w $192.47/$199.02
Support: $185.00 · $184.04 · $180.00
Resistance: $200.00 · $202.50 · $207.44
Gamma flip: ~$180.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 84,898 (8.0% below spot)
Structural: Support: $185, $184 (1std), $180 (gamma flip). Resistance: $200 (round), $202.5 (max pain), $207.44 (2w high). EM guardrails: 2d $192.20/$199.29, 1w $192.47/$199.02.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-41.6M

DEX: +341.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$180 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 84,898 (8.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net gamma -$41.6M (negative), net delta +341.9M shares (long). Negative gamma implies amplifying moves, especially on down moves. Gamma flip near $180 via put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX (18.89); NVDA IV ~45% vs VIX 18.89, rich for single stock, suggests premium selling opportunity.

Term structure: Contango in near term; front-month IV higher than back due to earnings/events; flattening out after expiry.

Skew: Put skew steep; overpriced downside puts vs calls. Opportunity: sell put spreads below $180 support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $173.8M bullish, P/C vol ratio 0.65, OI ratio 0.82, confirms call bias.

Directional prints: 31.6 call 197.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — 137k vol vs OI 3.6k (38.7x), IV 31.6%. Heavy call buying near money, likely bullish positioning. Preferred read: bought. 32.9 call 195 ITM 2026-06-26 — 96k vol vs OI 4.7k (20.3x), IV 32.9%. Large OTM call volume, suggests bullish sentiment. Likely bought. 36.5 call 192.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — 22k vol vs OI 1.0k (21.8x), IV 36.5%. Additional call buying at 192.5, reinforcing bullish flow.

Unusual: 74.6 put 160 OTM 2026-06-29 — 10.9k vol vs OI 125 (86.8x), IV 74.6%. Deep OTM put volume spike; possible put selling or protection. Likely sold. 32.5 call 195 ITM 2026-06-29 — 9.7k vol vs OI 196 (49.6x), IV 32.5%. Unusual call volume in weekly expiration, likely bought. 100.8 put 145 OTM 2026-06-29 — 7.1k vol vs OI 267 (26.6x), IV 100.8%. Very deep OTM put volume, high IV, likely sold for premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $180 gamma flip, triggering dealer selling.
!Post-expiry vol crush if pinned at MP; long gamma positions lose value.
!Negative gamma amplifies any directional move; increased hedging flows.
!Macro sell-off (VIX spike) could override stock-specific support.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-09-18 $215.00/$240.00 call spread
Why now: Strong call flow and bullish bias support upside. Defined risk limits loss.
Upside capped; delta decay if spot below long strike.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-09-18 $175.00/$155.00 put spread
Why now: Neutral-bullish outlook; premium with defined risk. Supports from gamma flip at 180.
Max loss if spot breaks below short put strike.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-09-18 $215.00 call / sell 2026-09-18 $170.00 put
Why now: Bullish bias with strong call flow; short put offsets call cost.
Unlimited downside if spot drops below sold put strike.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-09-18 $215.00/$240.00 call spread
Upside exposure capped at $240, limited loss if wrong.
Why this play: Strong call flow and bullish bias with defined risk.
Debit: $4.82-$5.89
Max loss: $5.89
BE: $220.89
Mgmt: Monitor near earnings; exit if spot breaks $185 invalidation.
Traders seeking bullish delta with controlled risk.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-09-18 $175.00/$155.00 put spread
Sells puts below key support, collects premium with defined risk.
Why this play: Neutral-bullish premium collection with support at $180 gamma flip.
Credit: $3.58-$4.38
Max loss: $15.62
BE: $170.62
Mgmt: Close early if spot approaches $185; roll if needed.
Traders expecting sideways to modest upside.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-09-18 $215.00 call / sell 2026-09-18 $170.00 put
Long call financed by short put for cheap bullish exposure.
Why this play: Unlimited upside potential from strong call flow.
Debit: $3.47-$4.24
Max loss: $170.00
BE: $170.00
Mgmt: Set stop on put side; adjust if spot nears $185.
Aggressive traders confident in upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFNVDA spot breaks above $200 resistance with bullish flow → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-09-18 $215/$240 call spread (target credit 4.82-5.89)
IFNVDA spot holds above $180 gamma flip and stabilizes near $185 support → Enter put credit spread: sell 2026-09-18 $175/$155 put spread (target credit 3.58-4.38)
Exit Triggers
EXITNVDA spot breaks below $185 invalidation level → Close all bullish positions to limit losses

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias but cautious due to negative gamma. Key support at $180 gamma flip, resistance at $200. Favor defined-risk plays: bull call spread on breakout above $200, put credit spread near $185 support. Invalidation at $185.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.