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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $200.04EOD only

Max Pain

$210.00

Next expiry Jun 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.73

1.9% from close

Price Gap

+9.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with event-driven gamma and bullish flow, but negative GEX and spot below MP create conflicting dynamics. Short-term upside likely to resistance near $200-$202, with downside support at $186.68-$185.

Confidence:

5 / 10

Base 5; adjustments: GEX/flow contradict -1.0, spot 1.7% below MP +0.5, VIX 19 +0.5; final 5.0.

Supports: Bullish flow, spot below MP, max pain pin at $202, long delta dealer positioning (DEX +341.6M shares).
Conflicts: Negative gamma (-$18.1M GEX), QQQ weakness (-0.42%), spot below EM guardrails.

📌Max pain pin at $202 (24-Jun) suggests spot gravitates toward strike.

⚡Gamma flip at ~$185; breach could accelerate selling.

📈Bullish flow but negative GEX implies potential for sharp moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol Normal: IV typical for event period; VIX at 19 provides moderate premium.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma Trending: Negative gamma (-$18.1M) with flip near $185; dealers hedge dynamically, amplifying moves.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow Bullish: Net positive premium flow, but negative gamma contradicts directional conviction.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot Below MP: Trading at $197, 2.5% below $202 max pain; reinforces mean reversion potential.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins for multiple dates (24, 26, 29 Jun) indicate event-driven gamma dynamics; focus on near-term expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$193.57$204.43

Test resistance near $200; support $193.57.

Next 1 week

$192.23$205.77

Above $192.23, target $205.77 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$186.68$211.32

Range $186.68-$211.32; bias bullish if above $200.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $202 (2026-06-24); $208 (2026-06-26); $205 (2026-06-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $193.57/$204.43; 1w $192.23/$205.77

Support: $186.68 · $185.00 · $180.00

Resistance: $200.00 · $202.50 · $210.00

Gamma flip: ~$185.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,402 (7.0% below spot)

Structural: Support: $186.68 (2w low), $185 (gamma flip). Resistance: $200 (round), $202.50, $210. Max pain pins: $202 (24-Jun), $208 (26-Jun), $205 (29-Jun).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-18.1M

DEX: +341.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$185 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,402 (7.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$18.1M (negative gamma), DEX +341.6M shares (long delta). Gamma flip ~$185. Negative gamma implies dealer hedging may accelerate moves; long delta caps downside above flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV elevated relative to VIX due to event premium; rich but justified by upcoming catalysts.

Term structure: Backwardated with kinks at weekly expiries; front-end IV highest near max pain dates.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity in put credit spreads or calendar spreads to capture decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$66.4M, P/C vol ratio 0.76, bullish call bias.

Directional prints: 57.9 call 187.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 7.1k (OI 269, ratio 26.3), premium $10.92. Likely bought; bullish directional. 19.5 call 197.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol 85k (OI 439, ratio 193.7), premium $1.60. Aggressive bull buy.

Unusual: 12 call 200 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 262k (OI 7.8k, ratio 33.7), premium $0.16. Unusual opening; bullish. 17.6 call 202.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 284k (OI 13k, ratio 21.9), premium $0.01. Likely closing shorts; bullish. 13.4 put 197.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 265k (OI 13.1k, ratio 20.3), premium $0.08. Hedging or bearish bet; bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings miss or guidance disappointment.

!Macro weakness (QQQ -0.42%) dragging tech.

!Breach of gamma flip at $185 triggering dealer selling.

!Negative GEX amplifies downside if spot breaks support.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00/$210.00 call spread Why now: Bull call spread captures upside with defined risk, fits bullish bias and event duration.	If NVDA stays below $200, max loss = premium paid.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate	Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00 call / sell 2026-09-18 $190.00 put Why now: Risk reversal captures bullish post-earnings move while short put funds long call.	Unlimited upside if stock rallies, but short put obligates purchase if dropped below $190.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $210.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $200.00 call Why now: Calendar call profits from volatility crush before earnings while maintaining upside exposure after.	If NVDA rallies before near-term expiration, short call limits upside; max loss if stock drops below long strike.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00/$210.00 call spread

Buy $200/$210 call spread for earnings upside.

Why this play: Fits bullish bias and event duration with defined risk.

Debit: $3.89-$4.76

Max loss: $4.76

BE: $204.76

Mgmt: Close if price breaks $186.68 support.

Traders seeking capped risk.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00 call / sell 2026-09-18 $190.00 put

Buy $200 call, sell $190 put for leveraged bullish.

Why this play: Captures upside while short put reduces cost.

Debit: $5.08-$6.21

Max loss: $190.00

BE: $190.00

Mgmt: Monitor short put; close if below $186.68.

Aggressive traders expecting strong move.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $210.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $200.00 call

Sell short-dated $210 call, buy longer $200 call.

Why this play: Profits from volatility crush before earnings.

Debit: $11.77-$14.38

Max loss: $14.38

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust if vol spikes or price moves.

Traders expecting vol decline.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NVDA price tests $186.68 support and holds → Enter bull call spread (buy $200/$210 call spread)

IFIF NVDA price breaks above $200 with volume → Enter bullish risk reversal (buy $200 call, sell $190 put)

IFIF IV stabilizes and NVDA holds $186.68 → Enter call diagonal (sell Jul $210 call, buy Sep $200 call)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF NVDA price closes below $186.68 → Close all long positions, including bull call spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into earnings, resistance $200-$202, support $186.68-$185. Top play: bull call spread with stop at $186.68.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.