Home Options NVDAReports

NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $205.19EOD only

Max Pain

$205.00

Next expiry Jun 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.93

1.9% from close

Price Gap

-0.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.85

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

NVDA is in a bullish pinning regime near max pain $205 with strong dealer support, favoring a gradual drift higher within the established range.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +1 GEX pin +1 spot near MP +1 VIX 18 = 9/10.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, spot at max pain, low VIX.
Conflicts: None.

📈Bullish flow aligns with positive GEX, supporting a bullish bias.

📍Max pain $205 across three expiries pins price in a tight range.

📊VIX at 18 indicates low volatility environment, reducing downside risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol Normal: IV within typical range, VIX 17.68.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma Pinning: GEX +$739.1M, max pain $205 across 3 expiries, flip ~$200.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow Bullish: net premium positive, P/C favours calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at max pain $205, 0.1% from MP, reinforcing pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Consistent pinning across multiple expiries and strong dealer gamma support multi-week range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$201.26$209.12

Range $201.26-$209.12; pinning near $205 supports drift to upper half.

Next 1 week

$198.59$211.79

Range $198.59-$211.79; max pain $205 holds, bias upward within range.

Next 2 weeks

$193.59$216.79

Range $193.59-$216.79; gradual climb with pinning at $205.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $205 (2026-06-12); $205 (2026-06-15); $205 (2026-06-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $201.26/$209.12; 1w $198.59/$211.79

Support: $205.00 · $200.00 · $193.59

Resistance: $210.00 · $216.79 · $220.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,178 (2.5% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $205 (Jun12,15,17); EM guardrails 2d $201.26/$209.12, 1w $198.59/$211.79; support $205,$200,$193.59; resistance $210,$216.79,$220; gamma flip ~$200.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+739.1M

DEX: +393.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,178 (2.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$739.1M (positive), DEX +393.3M shares, gamma flip at ~$200 based on put concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV normal vs VIX 17.68; no rich/cheap skew.

Term structure: Term structure not provided; typical flat shape in normal vol.

Skew: Skew not highlighted; potential for calendar spreads if vol stays low.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $297M with put/call volume ratio 0.62 and OI ratio 0.85, indicating strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 36.1 call 195 ITM 2026-06-15 — 60x OI, ITM $10, blocks of 1000, likely bought for bullish exposure. Preferred read: bullish. 22.4 call 207.5 OTM 2026-06-15 — 14x OI, OTM $2.5, premium $0.98, aggressive buying. Preferred read: bullish.

Unusual: 85.9 put 155 OTM 2026-06-17 — 94x OI, deep OTM, $0.03, likely lottery puts bought. Preferred read: bearish tail risk. 113.2 put 220 ITM 2026-06-12 — 58x OI, deep OTM expiring today, $15.07, possibly closing. Preferred read: neutral. 71.7 put 165 OTM 2026-06-17 — 23x OI, OTM $40, $0.05, may be hedging. Preferred read: bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip at $200 could trigger hedging and sell-off.

!Earnings or macro surprise may break pinning pattern.

!High confidence may overstate stability; sudden volatility spike possible.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $205.00/$200.00 put spread Why now: Strong dealer support at $200; put credit spread profits from time decay and limited downside	Break below $200 gamma flip could cause loss
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $210.00/$215.00 call spread Why now: Net call premium flow and gamma support at $200; cheap way to express bullish view	Stock fails to rally; time decay if flat
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $205.00 cash-secured put Why now: Strong dealer hedging support near $200; cash secured put offers yield with entry point	Sharp downside move below $195; stock ownership at loss
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $210.00 call Why now: ITM call flow and bullish pinning regime; long call captures upside without short leg risk	Time decay if stock stalls; theta accelerates near expiration

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $205.00/$200.00 put spread

Sell 205/200 put spread to capture premium with limited downside

Why this play: Best for pinning regime: profits from time decay and dealer support at $200

Credit: $2.00-$2.45

Max loss: $2.55

BE: $202.55

Mgmt: Exit if stock breaks below $200 or volatility spikes

Traders expecting gradual drift up with defined risk

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $210.00/$215.00 call spread

Buy 210/215 call spread for leveraged upside with capped loss

Why this play: Cheap bullish expression aligned with net call flow

Debit: $1.69-$2.06

Max loss: $2.06

BE: $212.06

Mgmt: Roll or close if stock drops below $205

Traders seeking low-cost bullish bet

Cash-Secured Put

Sell 2026-07-17 $205.00 cash-secured put

Sell 205 put to earn yield, accept assignment at $205

Why this play: Collect premium while getting long at supported level

Credit: $8.10-$9.90

Max loss: $195.10

BE: $195.10

Mgmt: Buy back if stock falls below $195; roll if necessary

Income-focused traders willing to own NVDA

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf NVDA holds above $205 with bullish bias, then enter → Sell 2026-07-17 $205/$200 put credit spread at limit 2.00-2.45

IFIf NVDA holds above $205 with bullish bias, then enter → Buy 2026-07-17 $210/$215 bull call spread at limit 1.69-2.06

IFIf NVDA dips to $200 and holds, then enter → Sell 2026-07-17 $205 cash-secured put at limit 8.10-9.90

Exit Triggers

EXITIf NVDA breaks below $200 (gamma flip), then exit → Close all bullish positions (buy back put spreads, sell long calls)

EXITIf NVDA reaches $220 resistance, then take profits → Close bull call spread and long call at market

Tactical Summary

NVDA bullish pinning near $205 with dealer support. Favor put credit spreads and bull call spreads while above $200. Use cash-secured put on dips. Exit if break below $200 or spike to $220.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.