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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $205.19EOD only

Max Pain

$205.00

Next expiry Jun 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.93

1.9% from close

Price Gap

-0.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.85

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Outlook

NVDA is bullish with strong dealer positioning and gamma pinning to $208. Spot at $205.80 below max pain, but GEX/flow alignment and low VIX support upside. Key risk is gamma flip at $200 if selloff occurs.

Confidence:

9 / 10

GEX/flow strongly aligned (+2), positive gamma pinning (+1), spot 1.3% below MP (+0.5), VIX 19 (+0.5), base 5. Total pre-computed 9.

Supports: GEX +$347.5M bullish, flow bullish, gamma pinning to $208, low VIX.
Conflicts: Spot below MP, gamma flip at $200, high vol regime.

🟢GEX +$347.5M bullish alignment supports upside bias.

🟡Gamma flip at ~$200 poses downside risk if spot breaches.

🔵Max pain pin $208 for Jun12/15/17, resistance near $207.5-$210.

🟢VIX at 19 supports stable conditions for directional play.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol is High, IV elevated vs typical range, likely driven by event risk and strong movement.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma Pinning: GEX +$347.5M strongly positive, dealer hedging supports spot pinning near $208 max pain.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium, put/call OI skewed bullish with strong call buying.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot at ~$205.80 is 1.3% below max pain $208, implying slight downside but expected to drift up.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term gamma pinning and max pain expiry (Jun12) suggest event-specific move toward $208.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$200.74$208.99

Range $200.74-$208.99; prefer upside to $208 pin, but gamma flip at $200 adds risk.

Next 1 week

$196.24$213.49

Range $196.24-$213.49; support $200, resistance $210; watch for flip.

Next 2 weeks

$191.39$218.34

Range $191.39-$218.34; broader support $191.39, resistance $218.34; directional uncertainty.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $208 (2026-06-12); $208 (2026-06-15); $205 (2026-06-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $200.74/$208.99; 1w $196.24/$213.49

Support: $200.00 · $191.39

Resistance: $207.50 · $210.00 · $218.34

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,075 (2.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $208 (Jun12/15/17); EM guardrails: 2d $200.74/$208.99, 1w $196.24/$213.49; support $200, $191.39; resistance $207.5, $210, $218.34; gamma flip ~$200.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+347.5M

DEX: +393.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,075 (2.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$347.5M, DEX +393.3M shares; gamma flip ~$200 from concentrated put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is high relative to VIX 19.44, indicating expensive premium due to expected movement.

Term structure: Likely contango with elevated front-month IV from near-term pinning; event kink near Jun12 expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated below $200 (gamma flip); call skew flat. Opportunity in bullish call spreads targeting $208.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Heavy net call premium of $379.8M, put/call volume ratio 0.62, strongly bullish.

Directional prints: 35.9 call 202.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI ratio 24.4x, massive volume relative to OI suggests aggressive buying. Likely bought calls, bullish. 34.3 call 205 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI ratio 13.2x, high volume indicates strong demand. Likely bought calls, bullish. 34.6 call 207.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI ratio 12.8x, significant new buying. Likely bought calls, bullish.

Unusual: 65.8 call 187.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI ratio 13.2x with unusually high IV (65.8%) vs others ~35%, low OI (168). Likely bought for upside speculation or hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $200 could trigger sharp selloff if breached.

!Max pain pin failure if spot drops below $200.

!Broader market pullback could pressure NVDA despite bullish positioning.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-26 $207.50/$212.50 call spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread captures upside with moderate IV; strong flow supports.	Upside capped at $210; theta decay if stock stalls.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-02 $200.00/$195.00 put spread Why now: High put premiums at $200; dealer gamma supports price above $200.	Defined max loss if spot drops below $195.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $207.50/$212.50 call spread

Buy $207.50/$212.50 call spread expiring 6/26.

Why this play: Aligned with bullish flow and gamma pin; defined risk.

Debit: $1.73-$2.12

Max loss: $2.12

BE: $209.62

Mgmt: Exit if NVDA drops below $200 or gains hit target.

Agreeing with near-term upside bias.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $200.00/$195.00 put spread

Sell $200/$195 put spread expiring 7/2.

Why this play: Captures high premium at key support; limited downside.

Credit: $1.53-$1.87

Max loss: $3.13

BE: $198.13

Mgmt: Close if NVDA breaches $200 or premium decays.

Neutral-bullish view with support at $200.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFNVDA holds above $200 support and approaches $207.5 resistance. → Buy 2026-06-26 $207.50/$212.50 call spread at $1.73-$2.12.

IFNVDA tests $200 support and holds above with bullish momentum. → Sell 2026-07-02 $200/$195 put spread at $1.53-$1.87.

Exit Triggers

EXITNVDA drops below $200 (gamma flip invalidation). → Close 2026-06-26 $207.50/$212.50 call spread.

EXITNVDA breaks below $200 (gamma flip). → Buy back 2026-07-02 $200/$195 put spread.

Tactical Summary

NVDA bullish bias with strong dealer support near $200. Gamma flip at $200; above that, upside to $210+ favored. Top plays: bull call spread (buy $207.5/$212.5 call) and put credit spread (sell $200/$195 put). Manage risk if $200 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.