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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $215.33EOD only

Max Pain

$220.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.51

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+4.67

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with a short-term magnet to $175–$180 (current spot $178.10). Confidence: 8.5/10 (use pre-computed). Strongest supports: concentrated positive GEX +$422.8M with large NTM clusters at $177.50/$180.00 and net premium inflow +$114.8M; conflicts: elevated ATM IV short-dated (47.4% 1d) and EM upper bound $184.42 limiting immediate upside.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5/10 provided: +GEX pinning at $177.50/$180.00; +net premium bullish; short-dated IV elevation flagged but within 'Normal' regime.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $177.50 (+$70.25M) and $180.00 (+$58.7M); max pain $175 across front-week expiries; net premium +$114.8M.
Conflicts: Short-dated ATM IV 47.4% (2026-04-08) and 1-week EM top $184.42 may cap rallies; some put-heavy structural floor at $140 (gamma flip).

📌Pinning: large positive near-term GEX concentrated at $177.50 and $180.00 creating a strong pin magnet

📈Net premium inflow +$114.8M favors dealers long delta (selling risk), supportive of short-premium tactics

⚠️Short-dated IV high (47.4% 1d) — buying short-dated protection is expensive; favor selling into that if comfortable with gamma

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV regime: 'Normal' — ATM IVs 33–47% across expirations with a near-term spike (1d 47.4%) that compresses quickly by 6d (33.8%). That favors selling very short dated vol that will decay fast, but watch event-pricing on 1–3d legs.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

'Pinning' — large positive GEX +$422.8M concentrated at $177.50/$180.00 creates a local magnet and dealer short-delta hedging that stabilizes price around NTM clusters.

Flow Regime

Mixed

'Mixed' flow: net premium +$114.8M and P/C ratios ~0.98/0.90 indicate balanced activity with call-heavy dollar flow at $175–$190 but large distant put buying at far strikes; institutional buying of calls at $180 and $175 significant.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $178.10 sits above max pain $175 (front expiries) by 1.8%, producing slight upside bias toward the pin and immediate resistance at upper EM bounds.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across multiple near expirations (4/8–4/24) with MP stable at $175 then rising to $180 across ~20 expiries; trade setups should prefer 30–45 DTE for primary positions with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$174.58$181.63

Held by GEX concentrations at $177.50 and $180.00; a break below $174.58 (2d lower EM) signals acceleration lower.

Next 1 week

$171.79$184.42

Weekly max pain $175 likely exerts pull; sustained trade above $184.42 would require heavy call absorption (OI wall $190–$200).

Next 2 weeks

$169.15$187.05

Continuation requires dealers to unwind hedges or substantial buy flow above $182.50 (2.5% from spot).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $175 (2026-04-08); $175 (2026-04-10); $175 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $174.58/$181.63; 1w $171.79/$184.42

Support: $175.00 · $172.50 · $170.00

Resistance: $180.00 · $182.50 · $184.42

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 91,662 (21.4% below spot)

Structural: Structural layers: call OI wall $190–$200 caps extended upside; put floor and gamma flip concentrated at $140 provides long-term downside insulation (large put OI at $140).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+422.8M

DEX: +373.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$140 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 91,662 (21.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive near-term gamma: +$70.25M at $177.50 and +$58.70M at $180.00 — dealers are net short vega/short convex near those levels and will sell gamma into moves back toward the pin; if spot drops ~2% to ~$174, dealers reduce short-delta (buy spot), supporting a bounce; if spot rallies ~+2% to ~$182, dealers sell delta into strength, capping upside near $182.50–$185.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM avg IV 46.2% vs general market (VIX not provided) — short-dated IV elevated (1d 47.4%) then normalizes to mid-30s; short-dated vol is premium-rich.

Term structure: Front-week hump: 1d 47.4% → 3d 42.5% → 6d 33.8%, then flattens ~35% 2–4 weeks before rising at 45d (41.0%) — usable for calendars/diagonals selling the rich near-term leg.

Skew: Notable cheapness in 45d+ relative to 1d–6d; buy 30–45d protection is cheaper than 1–3d; mispriced vol opportunity: sell very short (4/08) vs buy 05/22 (sell 47% vs buy 41% = ~6 vol-point edge) in calendar structures.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $114.8M (overall net buying of calls) with top premium concentrated at $175/$177.50/$180 call strikes; P/C vol ~0.98 indicates balanced activity but dollar skew to calls.

Directional prints: 47.8 call 177.5 ITM 2026-04-08 — Large intraday volume 66,409 vs OI 7,818 (8.5x) — could be aggressive call buys or roll/assignment flows; aligns with pinning at $177.50 (more consistent with buying calls into pin). 51.1 call 175 ITM 2026-04-08 — Heavy prints vol 41,472 vs OI 6,194 (6.7x) — strong short-dated call flow supporting pin; alternate interpretation sell-to-open covered flows but combined with net premium suggests buys.

Unusual: 37.2 put 172.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — NVDA260424P00172500 vol 7,306 vs OI 145 (50.4x) — large outer-dated put demand at $172.50, defensive tail positioning or structured hedges (more consistent with hedging given long-dated nature).

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~ $140 — if price trends toward $140 dealers flip short gamma and market structure likely to trend lower

!Near-term expiry concentration (04/08–04/13) can produce pin-release vol spikes if large assignment/rolls occur

!Short-dated IV compression risk: selling front-week into high IV can be hurt by unexpected buy flow or macro shock

!Upside capped by $190–$200 call wall — rallies above $185 may accelerate dealer buying of protection (vol) and remove short-premium edge

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy NVDA shares at $178.10	High capital; gamma pin may keep stock range-bound near $175–$180
Short stock	Moderate	Short NVDA at market / incremental into rallies to $182.50–$184.42	Pin/gamma support near $175 can produce squeezes on downside moves
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-22 180 call (sell higher-IV front vs 45d)	Capped upside into $190–$200 OI wall
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 175/170 put spread	Breaks below $170 invalidate; front-week pin risk
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-22 185 call	Expensive IV; time premium required for upside beyond $190–$200 wall
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 170/165 bear put spread	Gamma pin and positive GEX blunt downside; expensive near-dated IV spikes
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 172.5/165P x 185/192.5C (defined risk)	Large IV moves or pin release into expiry widen wings; need active management
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-08 177.5 call (IV 47.8%) buy 2026-05-22 177.5 call (IV 41.0%) — sell near-term leg (regular calendar), +6.8 vol-pt edge	Front-week pin release can spike short leg IV; requires roll discipline
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 170 LEAP call + sell 2026-05-22 180 call (diagonal)	Calendar leakage if term structure tightens; capital intensive
Short straddle/strangle (defined-wing IC preferred)	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-04-24 177.5/182.5 call spread + 172.5/168 put spread (structured IC)	Gamma into pin expiry; require tight stops and roll plan

Top Plays

Sell front-week put spread (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-24 175/170 put spread

High-probability, defined-risk play that collects premium into the $175 pin with strong positive GEX support at $175–$177.50; short-dated IV rich so credit is attractive.

Credit: $0.85-$1.20

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $174.15

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $172.50 or VIX jumps > +8 pts

Traders looking to sell premium with defined risk and short-term thesis

Sell near-term call calendar (vol arbitrage)

Sell 2026-04-08 177.5 call, buy 2026-05-22 177.5 call

Sell inflated 1-day/3-day IV (47.4%–47.8%) and buy 45d IV (41.0%) capturing ~6–7 vol-pt edge; benefits from pinning and time decay of short leg.

Credit: $0.40-$0.90

Max loss: Variable (requires margin)

BE: Depends on fills; monitor short-leg IV

Mgmt: Close short leg if short-leg IV spikes by >+10 vol-pts or spot breaks below $174.58

Vol sellers able to manage short-leg gamma and roll risk

30–45d put spread (core multi-week)

Sell 2026-05-22 175/165 put spread

Captures multi-week pinning and higher front IV by selling 45d premium where term structure rises to 41% — wider buffer vs weekly and favorable GEX support.

Credit: $2.20-$3.00

Max loss: $7.80

BE: $172.80

Mgmt: Take profits at 50–60% of max credit; cut if spot < $170 or dealer gamma signals flip (increased selling below $170)

Core defined-risk sellers wanting multi-week exposure

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds $177.50 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-24 175/170 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $182.50 and IV decreases ≤ -2 vol from 1d level → Sell 2026-04-24 182.5/187.5 call spread or initiate iron condor wings at 172.5/165 put side

IFIf front-week IV (2026-04-08 ATM) ≥ 47% → Sell 2026-04-08 177.5 call and buy 2026-05-22 177.5 call (calendar) to capture vol-pt edge

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX-equivalent IV spikes +10 vol-pts on front-week expiries or spot < $170 → Exit all short premium positions immediately

EXITIf any short put spread reaches 50–70% of max profit → Take profit and reduce short-premium exposure

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers' positive GEX and concentrated OI pin spot near $175–$180; regime favors selling defined short premium (put spreads, calendars) with 30–45 DTE core and weekly tactical overlays. Invalidation: sustained break below $170 (and then $140 gamma flip) removes edge and favors directional protection.

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This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

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