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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $188.63EOD only

Max Pain

$180.00

Next expiry Apr 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.10

1.6% from close

Price Gap

-8.63

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 10, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 10, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish with pinning toward $180, confidence 8/10. GEX +$389M and net premium +$85M support upside, but mixed flow and above max pain create near-term friction.

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 8; GEX strongly positive, net premium bullish, but flow mixed and spot above MP.

Supports: GEX +$389M (pinning), net premium +$85M, EM guardrail $171.51.
Conflicts: Flow mixed, spot above MP, P/C ratios 0.90 neutral.

📊GEX pinning strongest at $180 (+$14.4M).

💰Net premium +$85M with top flow at $180 call.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 43% — normal regime, no extreme cheapness or richness.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$389M concentrated near spot, creating pinning behavior.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$85M bullish, but P/C ratios 0.90 show mixed participation.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $177.64 above near-term max pain $172-$175, creating gravitational pull down.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward ($172 → $180 over 20 expirations), GEX sign stable positive, flow regime consistent across expirations.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$173.92$181.36

GEX pinning at $180 dominates; below $173.92 EM guardrail invalidates.

Next 1 week

$171.51$183.76

Pin release widens range; upside capped by $183.76 EM guardrail.

Next 2 weeks

$167.29$187.99

Max pain trend supports drift toward $180; structural call wall $195-$200 limits.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $172 (2026-04-06); $175 (2026-04-08); $175 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $173.92/$181.36; 1w $171.51/$183.76

Support: $175.00 · $172.50 · $170.00

Resistance: $180.00 · $182.50 · $185.00

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 91,686 (21.2% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $195-$200 caps upside; put floor $140-$150 distant but gamma flip ~$140 accelerates downside.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+389.1M

DEX: +364.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$140 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 91,686 (21.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive gamma concentrated at $177.50-$182.50; dealer hedging buys dips below $177.50, sells rallies above $180.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 43% — no VIX provided for comparison.

Term structure: Humped — 2d 35.7% > 7d 29.9% > 11d 34.4%, then flattens ~40%.

Skew: 2d vs 7d ~5.8 vol-pt differential (sell 35.7%, buy 29.9%).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$85M bullish; P/C vol 0.90 neutral.

Directional prints: call 177.5 ITM 2026-04-08 — Vol 38,695 vs OI 4,865 (8.0x) — likely bought for delta exposure. put 175 OTM 2026-04-13 — Vol 4,045 vs OI 599 (6.8x) — likely sold for premium.

Unusual: 40.1 put 175 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 2,568 vs OI 255 (10.1x) — likely bought for longer-dated protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~$140 accelerates downside if breached.

!Spot above max pain creates gravitational pull down.

!IV hump in near-term expirations adds vol crush risk post-expiry.

!Earnings 2026-05-20 may shift positioning.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares at $177.64.	Below $175 support breaks pin.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — GEX positive and net premium bullish.	Pinning upward.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $180 call 2026-04-08.	Assignment above $180.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $175/$170 put spread 2026-04-08.	Break below $170.
Long calls	Moderate	Buy $180 call 2026-04-24.	Vol crush and pin failure.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Weak	Avoid — GEX positive and bullish flow.	Pinning upward.
Iron condor	Moderate	$172.50/$170P x $185/$187.50C 2026-04-08.	Break outside EM guardrails.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $180 call 2026-04-08 (IV 33.4%), buy $180 call 2026-04-13 (IV 30.2%) — regular calendar.	Spot moves away from $180.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $140 call 2027-03-19, sell $180 call 2026-04-08.	Time decay on short leg.

Top Plays

Put Spread

Sell $175/$170 put spread 2026-04-08.

Defined-risk premium collection below support.

Credit: $0.80-$1.00

Max loss: $4.20

BE: $174.20

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit; stop if spot <$172.50.

Traders bullish on pin holding above $175.

Covered Call

Own shares, sell $180 call 2026-04-08.

Income generation with upside to $180 pin.

Credit: $0.80-$0.83

Max loss: unlimited below share cost

BE: $176.84

Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches $180; take profit at expiry.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield.

Regular Calendar

Sell $180 call 2026-04-08 (IV 33.4%), buy $180 call 2026-04-13 (IV 30.2%).

Capture 3.2 vol-pt edge with pin at $180.

Debit: $0.10-$0.20

Max loss: debit paid

BE: depends on vol differential

Mgmt: Close when near-term decays; stop if spot moves >±2% from $180.

Vol traders expecting spot to hover near $180.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot tags $175 and holds 30 min → Sell $175/$170 put spread 2026-04-08.

IFSpot approaches $180 with IV >35% on 2d expiry → Sell $180 call 2026-04-08 for covered call or calendar.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot >$185 → Take profit on all short premium positions.

EXITSpot <$170 → Cut losses on bullish trades.

Tactical Summary

Bullish pin toward $180 with multi-week duration. Invalidation: <$172.50. Favors selling premium around support ($175) and calendars capturing vol differential. Top plays: put spread for defined risk, covered call for shareholders, calendar for vol edge.

Read the Directional analysis for NVDA for 2026-04-06. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.