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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.60EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.56
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-04-16 (in 9 days). Regime: High vol, Pinning (GEX +$219.8M) with mixed flow — favors premium sellers who can tolerate pin risk. Best single strategy: structured iron condor across the 95–105 neighborhood into the event to harvest elevated premium while respecting the expected move. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap outside the 1-week EM rails ($91.34–$106.29) which would blow past short premium quickly.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (Pinning); +1 GEX positive (pinning)
Most important: Watch the ATM IV term-structure kink (57.2% at 4/17 vs 39.1% at 4/10) — it signals a large event premium that will compress materially post-release.
📅Earnings scheduled 2026-04-16 (TBD time) — plan trades around 2026-04-17 expiry to capture the event premium.
📌GEX +$219.8M with strong pinning at $100/$101 and max pain $96 — expect dealer hedging to favor pin behavior unless a large gap occurs.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Gamma flip ~ $73 (put OI concentration 48,173, 26.1% below spot) — below this level dealer selling-induced moves may accelerate.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (9 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (3d): 7.77 (2.8%) [$96.05 - $101.58]
  • 2026-04-17 (10d): .47 (7.6%) [$91.34 - $106.29]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink: ATM IV 39.1% for 2026-04-10 then spikes to 57.2% for 2026-04-17 (event week) before normalizing in later expiries (49.3%+ then mid-40s).

Crush estimate: ~15-18 vol pts compressing back toward the 39-49% band (57.2% -> ~39-42% post-release is plausible).

Skew: Puts show heavier OI concentration (notably $73 put floor); short-dated strikes show puts relatively rich at near strikes but calls have large OI at 100/105+ indicating dealer call hedging risk above spot.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters: beats on 2025-12-31, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31; miss on 2025-09-30)

Avg move vs expected: Not encoded numerically in source; price has sometimes under-shot short EMs historically but beat frequency leans positive.

Directional bias: Tends to gap up on beats (3/4 recent quarters showed positive EPS surprise), so slight uphill bias into earnings.

Key Levels

1$73.00 gamma flip
2$96.00 (max pain / 2d EM lower guardrail)
3$100.00 (large GEX +$35.8M / 1.2% above spot; heavy call OI cluster)
4$105.00 (structural call OI wall, resistance)

Flow Highlights

Very large premium flow into $100 calls (net $4,883,108) and heavy OI at $100 CALL (44,476 OI) and $105 CALL (91,284 / 91,277 across series).

Market participants are stacking upside call exposure around $100–$105 — dealers are long call deltas and will likely hedge into pinning behavior around those strikes, reinforcing resistance near $100–$105.

Short-dated $99 and $100 puts active (e.g., 4/10 $99 PUT vol spike vol=13,820; 4/10 $100 PUT OI 1,376).

Large put flow near spot plus GEX concentration at $100/$101 increases dealer pin magnet forces around $98–$101.

Strategies

Structured earnings iron-condor (defined risk short premium)
Sell 2026-04-17 105C / buy 2026-04-17 108C; sell 2026-04-17 95P / buy 2026-04-17 92P
Credit: $1.20-$1.80
Max loss: $4.80
Max gain: $1.80
BE: 92.20 / 106.80
Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before earnings if IV stays elevated and you can collect >$1.20 credit.
High GEX (+$219.8M) and concentrated pin magnets at $100/$101 and max pain near $96 make short structured premium profitable while capping tail risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays inside the 1-week EM rails ($91.34–$106.29) and pins near dealer clusters ($96–$100).
Underperforms: Company issues guidance or surprise causing a gap beyond the 1-week EM (move >7.6%).
Long straddle (direction + volatility if you expect a big surprise)
Buy 2026-04-17 $100 straddle (buy 100C + buy 100P)
Debit: $7.50-$8.50
Max loss: $8.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ~$91.50 / $108.50 (using cost ~7.50–8.50)
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings if you expect a move materially > the 10d EM (±$7.47) and IV hasn't run higher.
ATM 4/17 IV is 57.2% (large event premium). This captures direction + vol but pays heavily if move is muted or IV crushes.
Outperforms: Stock moves >~8% on the print (beat/miss + guidance shock); tail events.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $96–$100 and IV collapses post-release (heavy IV crush).
Bull call spread (upside-biased, limited risk)
Buy 2026-04-17 100C / Sell 2026-04-17 105C
Debit: $1.60-$2.20
Max loss: $2.20
Max gain: $2.80
BE: $101.60
Trigger: Use if you have a favorable beat thesis and want asymmetric upside with limited IV exposure.
Large call OI at 100/105 suggests concentrated upside; spread buys defined upside while hedging some IV crush by selling the 105 call.
Outperforms: Stock rallies above ~103–104 post-earnings into the call OI resistance band (105).
Underperforms: Stock stalls below ~101 or gaps down on a miss.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: The 10d EM is ±$7.47 (7.6%). Guidance-led moves could easily exceed that and blow through short premium.
!IV crush: ATM IV jumps to 57.2% for 4/17 and can compress ~15–18 vol pts on the release — hurts long vol and helps sellers.
!Liquidity: Chains are liquid near 95–105 with heavy OI and volume (e.g., 100 strike OI 44,476; 105 calls OI 91k), so execution is feasible, but wide spreads exist on the very short tails.
!Sizing: Given pinning regime and dealer gamma, keep position sizes modest for naked premium; defined-risk structures (condors, spreads) preferred over short straddles for portfolio-level sizing.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings (monitor 4/10 -> 4/17 ATM IV: 39.1% -> 57.2%).
?Unusual OTM/ITM flow at spot strikes: 4/10 & 4/17 $99–$100 put/call activity and large $100 call premium inflows.
?Pre-release guidance leaks or sector headlines that can push price outside the 1-week EM rails ($91.34–$106.29).
?Dealer gamma concentrations at $100/$101 and max pain clustering near $96 — watch tape for pin attempts around those levels.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.