thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $89.30EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.29
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.30
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 2026-04-16 (10 days out). IV sharply elevated for 4/17 expiration (56.4% vs 49.1% for 4/24), offering strong IV crush and volatility arbitrage opportunities. Historical beat rate 75% but moves often underperform EM. Key risk: pinning near $100 due to massive GEX concentration.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP
Most important: IV term structure shows 7.3 vol-point differential between 4/17 (56.4%) and 4/24 (49.1%); reverse calendar spread is a top play to exploit this.
📅Earnings expected 2026-04-16 (10 days out), EPS est $0.77.
⚡IV term structure shows 7.3 vol-point differential between 4/17 and 4/24; reverse calendar spread is a top volatility arbitrage play.
⚠️Massive GEX concentration at $100 (+$29.7M) increases pin risk, favoring non-directional strategies.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Gamma flip at $73, far below spot; dealers amplify moves below this level.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (10 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (11d): ±$7.73 (7.8%) [$91.21 - $106.66]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 (56.4% vs 49.1% for 4/24), a 7.3 vol-point differential indicating earnings premium concentrated in weekly expiration.

Crush estimate: ~20 vol pts for 4/17, back to ~36% (near 4/10 levels); 4/24 IV may drop less sharply.

Skew: P/C volume ratio 0.84 suggests slightly more call activity; puts richer in OTM strikes (e.g., $73 put OI 48,174).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient historical move data provided; EPS surprise mixed: +$0.01, -$0.16, +$0.02, +$0.17.

Directional bias: 2/4 quarters positive EPS surprise, but recent miss in Q3 2025.

Key Levels

1$100.00 (strong GEX pin magnet)
2$99.00 (GEX pin magnet)
3$105.00 (call OI wall)
4EM bounds: $91.21 - $106.66

Flow Highlights

Heavy $100C buying across expirations: net premium +$15M at $100 strike.

Bullish earnings bets concentrated at $100; may act as resistance.

Unusual activity: 4/10 $103C vol 14,165 (9.1x OI), 4/10 $105C vol 17,971 (4.7x OI).

OTM call buying suggests traders positioning for upside breakout.

Strategies

Reverse call calendar (IV arbitrage)
Sell 4/17 $100 Call (IV 56.4%) / Buy 4/24 $100 Call (IV 49.1%)
Credit: $0.50-$1.00
Max loss: Unlimited (short call risk)
Max gain: Credit received + IV crush profit
BE: Dynamic; optimal if stock near $100 at 4/17 expiry
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings when IV differential >7 vol points.
Exploits 7.3 vol-point differential between 4/17 and 4/24 expirations; targets accelerated IV crush in weekly options post-earnings.
Outperforms: IV crushes sharply post-earnings in 4/17 leg while 4/24 leg retains value; stock pins near $100.
Underperforms: Large directional move away from $100, especially upside beyond $110.
Iron condor (IV crush)
Sell $91.21/$85P x $106.66/$112C 4/17
Credit: $2.50-$3.00
Max loss: $4.50
Max gain: $2.75
BE: $88.71
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV >50%.
Elevated IV (56.4%) offers high premium; historical EPS surprises mixed but no extreme moves indicated.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($91.21-$106.66) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >$5.
Long straddle (directional breakout)
Buy $100 straddle 4/17
Max loss: $15.46
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $84.54
Trigger: Enter day before if IV hasn't spiked >60%.
Flow shows bullish bets at $100; unusual OTM call activity suggests potential upside surprise.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (beyond $91.21-$106.66).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $100 and IV crushes sharply.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±7.8% ($91.21-$106.66) but could exceed on guidance given mixed historical surprises.
!IV crush of ~20 vol points likely post-earnings for 4/17; calendar spreads benefit, long premium strategies need big move.
!Liquidity: High (4.9M OI, 489K volume), but watch bid-ask spreads on OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Reduce size on credit spreads due to pin risk near $100; calendar spreads require careful strike selection.

What to Watch

?IV differential between 4/17 and 4/24 expirations (currently 7.3 vol points)
?Spot action relative to $100 GEX magnet
?Unusual OTM put activity at $73-$85 strikes
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.