Earnings Verdict
Earnings in 17 days (4/16). IV for the post-earnings expiry (4/17) is sharply elevated at 49.0% vs 33.5% pre-earnings, pricing a ±8.6% move. Historical data shows NFLX consistently under-moves its expected move and has a high beat rate, strongly favoring premium-selling strategies. The key risk is the elevated VIX environment potentially muting the IV crush.
base 5; +1 explicit earnings date (4/16); +1 strong historical under-move data; +1 IV kink is sharp and earnings expiry is clearly identified; -1 elevated VIX environment (VIX 26.8) may dampen crush magnitude; -0.5 spot above max pain, pinning less likely
Most important: Historical under-move pattern (2.4% actual vs 4.3% prior EM) is the primary edge. The 4/17 expiry's IV is 15.5 points above the 4/10 expiry, confirming a significant earnings premium.
📅Earnings date confirmed as ~4/16 based on EPS estimate and sharp IV kink at 4/17 expiry. 17 days out allows time for IV to build further.
📊Key change from prior report: Expected move tightened slightly (±8.6% vs ±9.0%) and spot rose to $95. The IV kink remains sharp, confirming the earnings play.
⚠️Elevated VIX environment (26.8) may reduce the magnitude of the post-earnings IV crush, a headwind for pure IV crush strategies.
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
Normal (IV 47%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$189.2M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $116.4M, P/C 1.46)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 3.3% (spot $95.00 vs MP $92)
Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Extremely low gamma flip (~$5) due to massive put OI at $5, indicating structural support is irrelevant. Gamma regime remains pinning/mean-reverting.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (17 days)implied (EPS estimate for 4/16, IV kink at 4/17 expiry)
Expected moves:
- 4/17 (18d): ±$8.20 (8.6%) [$86.80 - $103.20]
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 expiry (49.0% IV), elevated vs 4/10 (33.5%) and 4/24 (46.1%).
Crush estimate: ~12-16 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~33-37% range.
Skew: P/C ratio of 1.46 indicates continued put buying dominance in recent flow.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters shown)
Avg move vs expected: Actual 2.4% vs prior EM 4.3% — consistently under-moves
Directional bias: 3/4 quarters gap up post-earnings
Key Levels
1Max Pain (4/17): $90
2EM Bounds: $87 - $103
3Call OI Wall: $100 (67,145 OI)
4Spot: $95.00
Flow Highlights
Heavy volume in $95P 4/02 (5,969 vol vs 1,393 OI) at 36.7% IV.
Near-term at-the-money put buying, likely a hedge for earnings or a bearish bet on a pullback to max pain ($92).
Massive net premium inflow (+$116.4M) with put-heavy volume (P/C 1.46).
Large bullish dollar flow is conflicting with put-skewed volume, suggesting institutional hedging or complex positioning rather than outright bearishness.
Unusual activity in far OTM calls ($70C 4/24, $31C Jan-27) and puts ($126P 4/17, $130P Dec-26).
Likely speculative, low-probability bets or part of multi-leg strategies, not strong directional signals.
Strategies
Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $87/$82P x Buy $103/$108C 4/17
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings (4/11-4/13)
Historical under-move edge is the core thesis. Wings are placed just outside the expected move bounds ($87/$103) to capture elevated IV while targeting a move within half the EM. The 8.6% EM provides a wide buffer.
Outperforms: Stock stays within historical under-move range (roughly ±3-4%).
Underperforms: Gap exceeds ±11% (outside condor wings).
Short Strangle (Higher Credit)
Sell $87P x Sell $103C 4/17
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV on 4/17 expiry > 48%.
Maximizes credit from elevated IV and expected crush. Wider breakevens than the condor (by ~$2 on each side) due to no long wings. Optimal for accounts comfortable with undefined risk, betting heavily on the historical under-move and pinning.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $88 and $102.
Underperforms: Sharp gap beyond breakevens.
Put Calendar Spread (IV Crush Play)
Buy $90P 4/24 (46.1% IV) x Sell $90P 4/17 (49.0% IV)
Trigger: Enter 7-10 days before earnings to capture full IV kink.
Exploits the 2.9 vol point kink between 4/17 and 4/24 expiries. Targets the $90 max pain level. The short leg in the earnings expiry will experience severe crush, while the longer-dated long leg retains more time value.
Outperforms: IV crushes post-earnings and stock is near or below $90.
Underperforms: Stock rallies sharply above $95 or IV expands into earnings.
Bullish Risk Reversal (Low-Cost Directional)
Sell $87P 4/17 x Buy $100C 4/17
Trigger: Enter on any dip toward $93.
Capitalizes on historical gap-up bias (3/4 quarters). Sells a put at the lower EM bound to finance a call at the key $100 resistance (call OI wall). Defines risk below the lower EM bound for a low-cost, leveraged bullish bet.
Outperforms: Stock rallies post-earnings, exceeding $100.
Underperforms: Stock declines below $87.
Risk Assessment
!Gap Risk: Expected move is large (±8.6%). While history favors under-moves, a significant guidance change could trigger a move beyond the wide wings.
!IV Crush: Significant crush (~12-16 vol points) is priced in, but a high VIX (26.8) may limit the post-earnings volatility drop, hurting short premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Excellent (4.95M+ OI). No issues.
!Sizing: Size premium-selling strategies for max loss of 1-2% of portfolio. The wide EM means position deltas will be low initially.
What to Watch
?IV for the 4/17 expiry—monitor if it climbs above 50% for better credit on short strategies.
?Spot action relative to the $90 max pain for 4/17—a move toward it would increase pinning probability.
?Flow in the $87 put and $103 call strikes as earnings approach for last-minute positioning clues.