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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.09EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.90
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+0.91
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 26, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 6 days (4/02). IV is elevated (37.7% for post-earnings expiry) vs typical ~30%, making IV crush plays attractive. Historical pattern shows NFLX consistently under-moves its expected move and has a strong beat rate, favoring premium selling strategies. Key risk is a guidance-driven gap beyond historical norms.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 explicit earnings date (4/02); +1 strong historical data; +0.5 elevated IV; -0.5 gamma pinning near spot
Most important: Historical under-move (actual 2.4% vs EM 4.3%) and 88% beat rate strongly support selling premium within the expected move.
📅Earnings confirmed for 4/02 (AMC likely). Post-earnings expiry is 4/02 weekly.
📊Historical edge is clear: 88% beat rate, avg move 2.4% vs 4.3% EM.
⚖️Gamma regime is pinning/mean-reverting with spot near max pain ($92). Expect choppy, range-bound action pre-earnings.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 52%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$145.5M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$20.0M, P/C 0.73)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 1.4% (spot $93.32 vs MP $92)
Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Extremely low gamma flip (~$5) due to massive put OI at $5, indicating structural support is irrelevant for near-term spot moves. Gamma regime is pinning/mean-reverting near current spot.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-02 (6 days)explicit (expected move spike at 4/02 expiry)

Expected moves:

  • 4/02 (6d): ±$3.84 (4.1%)
  • 4/10 (14d): ±$5.31 (5.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Clear kink at 4/17 expiry (47.4% IV), elevated vs surrounding expiries (36-38%). Post-earnings expiry (4/02) at 37.7% is also elevated vs 4/10 (36.2%).

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~25-27% typical level.

Skew: Flow is bullish (P/C 0.73), but unusual OI shows large, distant put blocks (e.g., $117.50P Jun-26). Near-term skew appears balanced.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 88% (7/8 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Actual 2.4% vs EM 4.3% — consistently under-moves

Directional bias: 5/8 gap up post-earnings

Key Levels

1Max Pain: $92 (4/02)
2EM Bounds: $89.48 - $97.16
3Call OI Wall: $100 (65,502 OI)
4Spot: $93.32

Flow Highlights

Massive net bullish premium flow (+$20.0M) with P/C ratio 0.73.

Overall options market positioning is bullish heading into earnings.

Heavy volume in $95C 3/27 (45,316 vol vs 12,073 OI) and $93P/$94P 3/27.

Short-dated pinning activity around $93-$95, aligning with max pain.

Large, low-volume trades in far OTM puts (e.g., $117.50P Jun-26, $130P Dec-26).

Likely institutional hedging or structured product flows, not near-term directional bets.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $89.5/$86P x Buy $97/$100.5C 4/02
Credit: $1.20-$1.60
Max loss: $2.40
Max gain: $1.40
BE: Downside: ~$90.90, Upside: ~$96.10
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings (3/31-4/01)
Historical under-move (2.4% avg) vs 4.1% EM provides edge. Selling elevated IV with high probability of crush.
Outperforms: Stock stays within ~±3.0% (historical under-move pattern holds).
Underperforms: Gap exceeds ~±5.0% (breaks historical range).
Long Put Calendar Spread (IV Crush + Downside Hedge)
Buy $90P 4/17 (47.4% IV) x Sell $90P 4/02 (37.7% IV)
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: IV crush on short leg + long leg appreciation if stock drops.
BE: Complex; benefits from IV differential collapse and/or downward move.
Trigger: Enter ASAP to capture IV term structure kink.
Exploits the steep IV kink (47.4% vs 37.7%). Short leg is directly in the earnings expiry and will crush. Long leg retains longer-dated vol for potential follow-through.
Outperforms: IV crushes post-earnings (short leg decays rapidly) and/or stock declines moderately.
Underperforms: Stock rallies sharply (long put loses value) or IV rises further into earnings.
Bull Put Spread (Flow-Aligned Directional)
Sell $89P x Buy $86P 4/02
Credit: $0.70-$1.00
Max loss: $2.30
Max gain: $0.85
BE: $88.15
Trigger: Enter on any pullback to $92.50-$93.00 before earnings.
Aligns with bullish flow (P/C 0.73, net prem +$20M) and historical gap-up bias (5/8 quarters). Defines risk below the expected move lower bound.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $89.50 (within lower EM bound).
Underperforms: Stock gaps down below $89 at open post-earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 4.1% EM is elevated. While history favors under-moves, a guidance surprise could break the pattern.
!IV Crush: Estimated 10-15 vol point drop is significant. Long premium strategies need a move >EM to overcome crush.
!Liquidity: Excellent (4.8M+ OI, 500K+ volume). No issues trading standard strikes.
!Sizing: Size condors/verticals for max loss of 1-2% of portfolio given binary event risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/01 — if 4/02 IV pushes above 40%, condor credits improve.
?Spot vs $92 max pain into 3/27 expiry — pinning could reduce pre-earnings volatility.
?Any unusual flow in weekly $95-$100 calls or $85-$90 puts indicating last-minute bets.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.