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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $132.36EOD only

Max Pain

$130.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.40

5.6% from close

Price Gap

-2.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

MSTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $135 (next-week MP) and strong dealer pinning; Confidence: 6.0/10.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base score 6.0; positive GEX +$111.5M (pinning at 133–135), spot 1.8% above near-term MP, but avg IV 77.6% and net premium negative (-$201.8M) introduce mixed flow risk.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $133/$134/$135 (+$9.8M–$24.5M), MP $130→$135 trend, large call OI walls $135/$140/$142.
Conflicts: Net premium outflow -$201.8M and elevated avg IV 77.6% suggest sellers have been buying protection; P/C OI 0.82 (more calls) but P/C vol 1.08 (put activity).

📍GEX pin cluster largest at $135 (+$24.5M) — near-term magnet

🔺Big call OI wall $140–$142 caps upside if momentum fades

⚖️IV term structure ramps after Apr-24 (65.8% → 67.8%+), favors calendar opportunities

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: ATM IVs 59.9% (4d) → 65.8% (18d) and avg IV 77.6% — option premium is expensive relative to VIX 19.1, incentivizing premium sells if gamma supports.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$111.5M with concentrated positive gamma at $133–$135 and secondary at $140–142; dealers likely buy delta into weakness and sell into strength near those pins.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium -$201.8M (net buying protection) with P/C vol 1.08 and P/C OI 0.82 — tactical put buying coexists with large call OI accumulation.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $132.36 sits above near-term MP $130 (4/17) and MP drifts higher to $135 (4/24) — spot within pin range which increases mean-reversion risk toward $135.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the next two expirations (4/17 and 4/24) and MP trend shifts to $135 over multiple weeks; prefer 30–45 DTE but use weeklies tactically.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$116.54$148.19

GEX at $133–$135 should magnetize spot; break above $139.76 (4/17 EM top) accelerates upside to secondary GEX at $140–142.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $130 (2026-04-17); $135 (2026-04-24); $129 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails:

Support: $133.00 · $130.00 · $128.00

Resistance: $135.00 · $140.00 · $142.00

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,194 (24.4% below spot)

Structural: Structural call wall $140–$142 restricts rally; long-term put floor $75–$100 supports deep downside buyers and sets gamma flip around $100 for structural hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+111.5M

DEX: +47.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 27,194 (24.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive near-term gamma concentrated at $133/$134/$135; dealers will buy delta on dips toward $130–133 and hedge by selling into strength above $135–140; if spot falls ~2% (~$129), dealers increase long-delta hedges slowing declines; if spot rises ~2% (~$135), dealers sell delta which can cap upside nearer $140.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM IVs (4d 59.9% → 18d 65.8%) vs VIX 19.12 show equity vol disconnected — MSTR volatility richly priced relative to index, reflecting idiosyncratic risk.

Term structure: Upward-sloping across 4/17→5/15 (59.9% → 68.2%) creating calendar/diagonal premium for selling near-dated and buying further-dated IV.

Skew: Put skew: concentrated protective put OI at $100/$90/$75; call-side OI high at $135/$140/$142 — calendar at ATM shows ~8.3 vol-pt differential (sell May15 68.2%, buy Apr17 59.9%).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative -$201.8M (net buying protection), P/C vol 1.08 indicates more put flow by volume vs OI call dominance 0.82.

Directional prints: 62 put 128 OTM 2026-04-17 — Vol 3,662 vs OI 1,236 (3.0x) — short-dated put demand at $128; could be protective buys or directional bearish bets; overall mixed flow favors protective interpretation given net premium negative. 62.9 call 129 ITM 2026-04-17 — Call prints at $129 ITM (3% from spot) Vol 3,116 vs OI 1,119 (2.8x) — buyer interest near MP, could be roll/re-hedge; more consistent with dealers pinning toward $130–135.

Unusual: 83.2 put 111 OTM 2026-04-17 — $111 Apr17 put (Vol1,130 OI202) shows large relative activity far OTM — tail protection or structured hedge; low probability but signals institutional hedging appetite.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~ $100 — major directional acceleration if breached, but far from spot;

!April 17 expiry (4d) MP $130 can compress moves and produce pin risk into close;

!High avg IV (77.6%) and negative net premium risk sellers moving from protection to directional if market stress increases;

!VIX rising above ~25 would blow out option funding and make short premium dangerous.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $132.36	High IV and expensive protection if market turns
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pinning makes persistent short stock gamma costly
Covered call	Moderate	Buy shares + sell 2026-05-15 140 call	Call OI wall at 140–142 may be assigned if strong upside; limited upside beyond 140
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 130 put or sell 130/125 put spread	If pin fails below 128 move accelerates; gamma flip far at $100 mitigates extreme moves
Long calls	Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 140 call	High premium; call OI walls may cap short-term upside
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-17 128 put / sell 2026-04-17 125 put (bear put spread)	Pinning and positive GEX reduce likelihood of large immediate moves down; costs high IV in short-dated puts
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 135/125 put x 140/142 call condor (defined-risk wings aligned to MP and call wall)	VIX spike or break above 142 or below 125 blows wings
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 132 / Buy 2026-04-17 132 reverse calendar (sell May15 IV 68.2%, buy Apr17 IV 59.9%; sell longer-dated higher-IV leg)	Pin releases can flip short longer-dated leg into loss; requires management and potential roll if MP shifts significantly
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy shares + sell 2026-05-15 135 call (or sell 2027-01-15 135 against LEAP long)	Capital intensive but collects elevated premium and aligns with MP trend toward 135

Top Plays

Sell 130/125 put spread May15 (32d)

Sell 2026-05-15 130/125 put spread

Collects premium anchored to MP $135 and strong GEX pin at 133–135; term gives time for theta and benefits from downward MP trend.

Credit: $0.80-$1.30

Max loss: $4.20

BE: $129.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of credit; cut if spot <128 or VIX >25

Defined-risk income buyers

Sell Apr24 iron-condor (week+)

Sell 2026-04-24 135/125 put x 140/142 call iron condor

Uses weekly-to-week+ pin at 135 and call OI at 140/142 to collect rich short-term IV while defined risk caps tail exposure.

Credit: $1.00-$1.80

Max loss: $8.00

BE: Lower (135 - premium), Upper (142 + premium)

Mgmt: Take 50% gain on collected credit; hedge or close if spot breaks >142 or <125 with increasing vol

Experienced premium sellers

30–45d calendar (reverse calendar: sell May15 / buy Apr17)

Sell 2026-05-15 132 / Buy 2026-04-17 132 (reverse calendar)

Harvests higher longer-dated IV (May15 68.2%) by selling the higher-IV leg and buying short-dated Apr17 59.9% — benefits if pinning keeps spot range-bound into May.

Credit: $0.50-$1.20

Max loss: Variable (requires hedges)

BE: Dependent on roll/management

Mgmt: Buy back sold May15 leg if realized vol > implied or spot closes beyond 135 on Apr17; roll shorter leg if pin shifts.

Traders seeking vol-term arbitrage with active management

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $135.00 for 30 minutes → Sell Apr24 iron condor 135/125 put x 140/142 call

IFIf spot re-tests $130.00 and holds above for 1 hour → Sell May15 130/125 put spread

IFIf Apr17 IV (ATM) > 65% and spot within $130–$135 → Sell Apr17 ATM leg and buy May15 ATM (reverse calendar structure) — sell May15 132 / buy Apr17 132

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $142.00 → Hedge short condor calls by buying 142–145 call fly or roll short calls to 145/150 wings

ADJIf spot < $128.00 or Apr17 close < $130 → Reduce short-put exposure and consider buying May15 128 put or roll down spreads

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX > 25 or avg IV increases by +8 vol-pts across expirations → Close all short premium trades

EXITIf short put spread reaches 60%–70% of max profit → Take profits/close position

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning and concentrated positive GEX favor range-bound short premium strategies targeting $133–$135; invalidation below $128 (sustained) or VIX >25. Top plays: May15 130/125 put spread (defined income), Apr24 iron-condor (collect near-term IV), 30–45d reverse calendar at 132 for vol-term arbitrage; choose by capital and risk tolerance.

Read the Directional analysis for MSTR for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.