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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $178.03EOD only

Max Pain

$170.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.15

4.6% from close

Price Gap

-8.03

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.89

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

MSTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish flow and strong dealer positive gamma suggest upward bias, but spot trading 10% above max pain ($170) introduces gravitational pull risk. High vol regime and VIX 17 provide tailwind for option premiums. Thesis: near-term bearish-leaning toward $180.73-193.22 range, with potential drift toward lower end as pinning effect dominates.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot 10% above MP; +1 VIX 17. Net 8.0.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, VIX support
Conflicts: Spot 10% above max pain, high vol indicates uncertainty

📈Bullish flow with $166M positive GEX suggests dealer hedging upward

⚠️Spot at $187.5 is 10% above max pain $170, may drift lower towards pin

💹VIX at 17 with high vol regime supports option premium

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated relative to typical range, VIX 17.26

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$166M positive, gamma pinning effect near $170 max pain

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium bullish, P/C ratio suggests bullish skew

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at ~$187.5, 10% above max pain $170, indicating potential pullback

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Focus on weekly max pain pinning at $170, with dealer gamma positive and flow bullish, but spot deviation suggests mean reversion event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$180.73$193.22

Spot above MP; drift toward $180.73 support likely

Next 1 week

$171.92$202.02

MP at $172; range low $171.92 aligns with pin

Next 2 weeks

$167.30$206.65

Support $167.3 near $170 MP zone

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $170 (2026-05-15); $172 (2026-05-22); $175 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $180.73/$193.22; 1w $171.92/$202.02

Support: $170.00 · $167.30

Resistance: $187.50 · $190.00 · $192.50

Structural: Max pain pins: $170 (2026-05-15), $172 (2026-05-22), $175 (2026-05-29). Support: $170, $167.3. Resistance: $187.5, $190, $192.5. EM guardrails: 2d $180.73-$193.22, 1w $171.92-$202.02.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+166.0M

DEX: +55.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$166.0M, DEX +55.9M shares, no gamma flip within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSTR IV elevated relative to VIX, consistent with high vol regime and event-driven premium.

Term structure: Term structure likely upward sloping near term due to weekly expirations, with event kinks at 2026-05-15 expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated above call skew; selling puts at support levels may offer premium in high vol environment.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $5M bullish premium; P/C vol ratio 0.41 reflects aggressive call buying.

Directional prints: 72.7 call 202.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 26.7x, IV 72.7%: massive call buying, likely bought, bullish. 85.3 call 230 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.4x, IV 85.3%: OTM call volume 11k, bought, bullish. 100.8 call 222.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 6.4x, IV 100.8%: elevated IV, OTM call buying, bullish.

Unusual: 72.7 call 202.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 26.7x extreme; IV 72.7%: standout call print. 85.3 call 230 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.4x; size 11k; IV 85.3%: large OTM call flow. 62.5 put 187.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.7x; OTM put; contrarian bearish bet in bullish tape.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails to revert to max pain and continues upward

!Positive gamma flip if spot drops sharply

!Earnings or binary event risk not accounted for

!Volatility contraction if no catalyst

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $177.50/$172.50 put spread Why now: High IV allows cheap downside convexity; risk defined.	Upside breakout risk if spot continues above $190.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $205.00/$220.00 call spread Why now: Spot above max pain; call credit spread profits from pin to $190.	Sharp rally above $195 would lose.
Put diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $180.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $182.00 put Why now: Elevated near-term IV vs back-month; profit from time decay and vol drop.	Sharp move up hurts; vol expansion also risk.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $177.50/$172.50 put spread

Buy put spread to profit from expected decline to max pain.

Why this play: Direct bearish alignment with thesis, cheap downside due to high IV.

Debit: $1.57-$1.92

Max loss: $1.92

BE: $175.58

Mgmt: Target 50% profit, exit at invalidation $187.5.

Directional bears expecting mean reversion.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $205.00/$220.00 call spread

Sell call spread to capitalize on bearish bias and high vol.

Why this play: Profits from pinning below $205, elevated premium enhances return.

Credit: $1.95-$2.38

Max loss: $12.62

BE: $207.38

Mgmt: Buy back at 50% profit or at invalidation $187.5.

Traders expecting spot to stay below $205.

Put Diagonal

Sell 2026-05-29 $180.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $182.00 put

Sell near-term put, buy back-month put to exploit term structure.

Why this play: Benefits from time decay and vol compression, less directional.

Debit: $6.17-$7.54

Max loss: $7.54

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll or close at expiration.

Traders expecting vol drop and mild decline.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot breaks below $180.73 (2d lower EM guardrail) → Buy MSTR_001: 2026-05-29 $177.50/$172.50 bear put spread at $1.57-$1.92

IFIf spot rallies to $187.5 (key resistance) → Sell MSTR_002: 2026-05-29 $205/$220 call credit spread at $1.95-$2.38

IFIf spot holds $170-$180 range with elevated IV → Sell MSTR_003: 2026-05-29 $180 put / buy 2026-06-18 $182 put diagonal at $6.17-$7.54

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot reclaims $187.5 (invalidation for both spreads) → Close MSTR_001 bear put spread and MSTR_002 call credit spread

Tactical Summary

Near-term bearish bias toward $180.73-$193.22; pinning risk at $170 max pain. Key levels: support $170, resistance $187.5. High vol environment benefits bear put spreads and call credit spreads. Enter bear put spread on breakdown below $180.73; exit if $187.5 reclaimed. Call credit spread on rally to $187.5. Put diagonal suitable for mild decline with time decay.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.