base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 26.6% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Term structure: Front-week skew extreme (calls/puts ~219% IV); slight contango to 9d then flat; all expiries highly elevated
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+51.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$110.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 45,956 (8.6% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put heavy at $110 (45,956 OI, gamma flip); put/call OI ratio 1.2; max pain: 2d $95, 9d $109, 16d $100
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $115.00/$110.00 put wing and $125.00/$130.00 call wing
Selling out-of-the-money put and call wings to profit from time decay and IV contraction within $110-125 range.
Mgmt: Monitor delta and gamma; adjust if spot approaches wings; exit at 50% max gain or before earnings.
#2Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $115.00 put + sell $125.00 call
Selling naked put and call to collect rich premium from elevated IV.
Mgmt: Close or roll if spot nears strike; hedge with futures if needed.
!Front-week IV skew extreme (puts ~219%) – tail risk events could trigger violent moves.
!Spot 21% above 2d max pain – potential pin to lower levels if dealers hedge.
!Vol regime High – realized vol could spike, challenging short premium positions.