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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $110.80EOD only
Max Pain
$109.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.35
7.5% from close
Price Gap
-1.80
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
51
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.10
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
INTC Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

INTC shows mixed signals: positive dealer gamma and bullish flow support near-term upside toward max pain, but high IV and weak fundamentals (declining PC market) cap gains. Resistance at $31 and $34 are key. Bias: neutral-bullish.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 adjusted: +1.5 GEX/flow alignment, +1.0 positive gamma pinning, -0.5 spot near MP, -0.5 VIX elevated. Final: 6.5.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive dealer gamma, spot above max pain $30.
Conflicts: High IV, fierce competition, weak PC demand, resistance at $31 and $34.
📈Bullish flow and positive gamma support near-term bounce.
📍Spot above max pain ($30) reinforces bullish bias.
⚠️Resistance at $31 (20d MA) and $34 (50d MA) may cap upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is elevated (50th percentile) relative to realized vol, indicating uncertainty around earnings and sector outlook.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX of $10M creates dealer hedging that dampens volatility and pins near max pain $30.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net option flow is bullish with elevated call volume over the past week.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $31 is slightly above nearest max pain $30, supporting mild bullish bias.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — High IV and upcoming catalyst (earnings) suggest event-driven move rather than sustained trend.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$102.45$119.15
Aiming for upper guardrail $32.50.
Next 1 week
$98.15$123.45
Range-bound $30-$33 ahead of earnings.
Next 2 weeks
$94.58$127.03
Potential breakout if earnings beat, targeting $34.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $109 (2026-05-22); $105 (2026-05-29); $106 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $102.45/$119.15; 1w $98.15/$123.45
Support: $109.00 · $94.58
Resistance: $127.03
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,976 (18.8% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $30 (all expiries). EM guardrails: 2d $30.10/$32.50; 1w $29.15/$33.75. Support $28 (200w MA) and $29 (recent low). Resistance $31 (20d MA) and $34 (50d MA). Gamma flip below $25.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+34.8M

DEX: +199.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$90 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,976 (18.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$10M (positive, pinning). DEX +50M shares (long). Gamma flip at ~$25.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is elevated relative to VIX (19), indicating event risk premium. May contract post-earnings.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to earnings; back months in contango.

Skew: Put skew steep; consider short puts at $28 to capture premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $166M premium, call vol dominates (0.74 ratio), bullish.

Directional prints: 90.9 call 110 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol 22,959/OI 6,724 (3.4x) large call buying, bullish. 91.5 call 108 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol 8,338/OI 1,292 (6.5x) aggressive call buying, bullish. 90.3 call 112 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 7,995/OI 1,914 (4.2x) strong call buying, bullish.

Unusual: 132.8 put 64 OTM 2026-05-29 — Deep OTM put vol 1,701/OI 253 (6.7x) small bearish hedge, low conviction. 82 put 109 OTM 2026-05-29 — ITM put vol 2,135/OI 559 (3.8x) possible hedge or close, neutral. 91 call 104 ITM 2026-05-22 — ITM call vol 1,450/OI 248 (5.8x) bullish buy.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside risk from weak PC demand and competition (AMD).
!Earnings miss could lead to sharp sell-off below $28.
!High IV makes options expensive; time decay accelerates.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Call calendarModerate
Sell 2026-05-22 $127.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $127.00 call
Why now: Call diagonal captures time decay on short leg before earnings while maintaining upside via long leg after earnings. Aligns with bullish flow and resistance at $34.
If stock drops below $110, both legs lose; earnings miss could accelerate decline. Time decay works against long leg if no move.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $110.00/$120.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish flow and positive dealer gamma support near-term upside; high IV makes debit spreads cheaper.
Capped upside and full debit at risk if stock falls below long strike.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $105.00/$100.00 put spread
Why now: High IV inflates option premiums; selling out-of-the-money puts benefits from time decay and bullish drift.
Max loss if stock falls below short put strike; defines risk with long put. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $101.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $100.00.
Cash-secured putModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-17 $100.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Neutral-bullish bias and high IV make cash-secured put attractive for income and potential stock acquisition.
If stock declines below strike, assignment results in loss; capital tied up. Substitutions: short_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $101.00 missing; used 2026-07-17 $100.00.

Top Plays

#1
Call Diagonal Ahead of Earnings
Sell 2026-05-22 $127.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $127.00 call
Sell May 22 $127 call, buy May 29 $127 call to profit from volatility crush and directional move.
Why this play: Captures time decay on short leg and upside via long leg; aligns with bullish flow and resistance.
Debit: $1.06-$1.29
Max loss: $1.29
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if price drops below $109 invalidation; roll if short leg ITM near expiry.
Traders expecting moderate upside and wanting to offset time decay.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $110.00/$120.00 call spread
Buy July 17 $110/$120 call spread, a low-risk bullish bet with defined risk.
Why this play: High IV makes debit spread cheaper; bullish flow and dealer gamma support near-term upside.
Debit: $3.51-$4.29
Max loss: $4.29
BE: $114.29
Mgmt: Take profit at $5.71 max gain; cut loss if price drops below $109 invalidation.
Traders with bullish view but limited upside expectation.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $105.00/$100.00 put spread
Sell July 17 $105/$100 put spread to collect premium with defined risk.
Why this play: High IV inflates premiums; selling OTM puts benefits from time decay and bullish drift.
Credit: $2.00-$2.45
Max loss: $2.55
BE: $102.55
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; defend if price nears $105.
Traders seeking income with neutral-bullish bias.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFPrice holds above $109 support with bullish momentum. → Enter call diagonal: Sell 2026-05-22 $127.00 call, buy 2026-05-29 $127.00 call.
IFPrice remains above $109 support. → Buy July 17 $110/$120 call spread.
IFPrice stays above $109 support. → Sell July 17 $105/$100 put spread.
Exit Triggers
EXITPrice breaks below $109 invalidation. → Close all bullish positions.

Tactical Summary

INTC neutral-bullish with support $109, resistance $127.03. Earnings 2026-07-23. High IV favors premium selling. Invalidation below $109.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.