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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $110.80EOD only

Max Pain

$109.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.35

7.5% from close

Price Gap

-1.80

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.10

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

INTC Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Outlook

Cautiously bullish near-term, supported by dealer long delta and spot above Max Pain, but negative gamma and high vol warn of reversal risk. Low confidence due to contradictory signals.

Confidence:

3.5 / 10

Base 5 adjusted: -1 for GEX/flow contradiction, -1 for spot 14.5% above MP, +0.5 for VIX 18.4. Net 3.5/10.

Supports: Dealer long delta (+233.8M shares), 1w range support at $98.79, spot above weekly Max Pain $95.
Conflicts: Negative GEX (-$125.4M), mixed flow, high vol regime, spot far from MP.

⚠️Negative GEX amplifies moves; rapid hedging can cause sharp reversals.

📈Dealers net long 233.8M shares, providing buying support on dips.

📊High vol regime suggests pending catalyst or post-event volatility; patience key.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol classified as High. VIX 18.4 supports elevated expectation; likely post-earnings or news-driven.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma trending: negative GEX (-$125.4M) indicates dealers short gamma, enhancing momentum but increasing reversal risk.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow Mixed: no clear directional bias. Net premium context neutral.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above Max Pain ($95) by ~14.5% (~$108.8). Distance reduces pull strength but still a magnetic zone.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Trending gamma and dealer positioning suggest directional trend persists over 1-2 weeks absent catalyst. Price ranges given for 1w and 2w support multi-week horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$98.79$118.74

Dealer long delta supports upside; negative gamma may trigger reversals near $118.74 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$95.47$122.07

Breakout above $118.74 could target $122.07; failure at $95.47 invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $95 (2026-05-15); $110 (2026-05-22); $100 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 1w $98.79/$118.74

Support: $95.47

Resistance: $122.07

Structural: 1w guardrails $98.79-$118.74, 2w guardrails $95.47-$122.07. Support $95.47, resistance $122.07. Max pain $95 (weekly), $110 (next week). No gamma flip zone.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-125.4M

DEX: +233.8M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma (-$125.4M) and long delta (+233.8M shares). Negative gamma amplifies hedging, increasing volatility. No gamma flip identified.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Stock IV likely elevated vs VIX (18.4) due to High vol regime. Rich for long vol if expecting range expansion.

Term structure: No direct data; typical post-earnings structure may be backwardated near-term. Earliest expiry likely elevated.

Skew: Put skew likely elevated. Consider selling OTM puts for theta decay if neutral, but high vol warrants caution.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $103M; volume skewed calls (P/C 0.97) but OI puts-heavy (1.17).

Directional prints: 25 call 109 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 22.2x; 36.7k vol vs 1.7k OI; aggressive call buying on 5/15 expiry, bullish directional. 21.9 call 111 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 17.1x; 45.9k vol vs 2.7k OI; heavy call volume on 5/15, consistent bullish. 22.7 call 110 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 15.0x; 93.9k vol vs 6.3k OI; largest call volume, accumulation ahead of expiry.

Unusual: 86.4 call 180 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 30.9x; deep OTM call with high IV, speculative long calls. 78 call 109 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 16.3x; next week call with elevated IV, unusual activity. 150.8 put 62 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 8.4x; deep OTM put extreme IV, likely sold premium or hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative gamma could amplify downside if spot breaks below $98.79 support.

!Elevated vol may compress quickly if catalyst passes, hurting long vol positions.

!Spot far from Max Pain may increase mean reversion risk.

!Mixed flow lacks clear directional conviction, reducing confidence.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $100.00/$125.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk upside capture with support from dealer long delta and call flow, but contradictory signals warrant risk control.	Vol compression or spot reversal below support could reduce profit; max loss limited to debit paid.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-18 $100.00/$82.50 put spread Why now: Elevated put premiums and dealer long gamma below 100 provide cushion; credit spread limits tail risk.	If spot breaks below short strike, loss limited to width minus credit; negative gamma may accelerate decline.
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $110.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $110.00 call Why now: Near-term IV elevated; long back-month call captures upside while short front-month call funds and benefits from vol drop.	Spot movement can hurt if not between strikes; earnings gap risk is distant but present.

Top Plays

Upside Capture w/ Risk Control

Buy 2026-06-18 $100.00/$125.00 call spread

Defined-risk bull call spread targeting earnings momentum with controlled max loss.

Why this play: Directly leverages bullish call flow and dealer long delta while limiting downside, best fit for cautious bullish stance.

Debit: $8.98-$10.97

Max loss: $10.97

BE: $110.97

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $95.47 invalidation; take profit near max gain before earnings.

Traders seeking upside with defined risk in mixed signals environment.

Defensive Bullish Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-18 $100.00/$82.50 put spread

Sell put spread to collect elevated premiums while benefiting from support levels.

Why this play: Earns premium with support from dealer long gamma below $100; less directional but lower risk.

Credit: $3.99-$4.87

Max loss: $12.63

BE: $95.13

Mgmt: Monitor support at $98.79; roll if spot approaches short strike.

Income-oriented traders wanting bull exposure with downside buffer.

Volatility Harvest Calendar

Sell 2026-05-29 $110.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $110.00 call

Sell front-month call, buy back-month to capture theta and vega decay.

Why this play: Exploits elevated near-term IV and expected vol drop post-earnings; requires precise timing.

Debit: $4.68-$5.72

Max loss: $5.72

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close if IV compresses sharply or spot exceeds short strike; adjust if trend changes.

Advanced traders comfortable with volatility positioning and time decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above 1w guardrail $98.79 with sustained call flow → Buy 2026-06-18 $100/$125 bull call spread (strat_1)

IFSpot tests $98.79 support and put premiums elevated → Sell 2026-06-18 $100/$82.50 put credit spread (strat_2)

IFSpot near $110 with front-month IV > back-month IV → Sell 2026-05-29 $110C / buy 2026-06-26 $110C call calendar (strat_3)

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $95.47 support → Close all positions

Tactical Summary

Multi-week cautiously bullish: capture upside via bull call spread, income via put credit spread, and vol harvest via calendar. Risk if spot breaks $95.47.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.