base 7.0 (given); +1 high IV (Avg IV 78.6%); +1 strong positive GEX ($137.4M) supporting pin; -1 spot 24.8% above max pain ($50) increases tail to downside
Term structure: Very steep front-to-mid curve: 7d ATM 62.5% → 14d ATM 87.3% → 21–35d ATM 81.1%/73.6% (humped; short-dated skewed rich around next two expiries) — front-week and 2-week are rich
Spot vs MP: Spot $62.38 is above max pain $50.00 (MP trend falling) — distance ~+24.8%
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$137.4M) — dealers currently long gamma net and likely to pin into OI concentrations
OI concentrations: Call walls: $70.00 (71,350/29,166 OI), $65.00 (31,912 OI), $60.00 (38,861 OI). Put walls: $35.00 (28,280 OI), $40.00 (25,883 OI), $50.00 (22,571 OI). Strong GEX concentration at $65 (+$13.7M), $60 (+$13.6M), $62.50 (+$3.4M)
#1call spread
Sell 65/70C 2026-04-24 (14 DTE) — defined-risk bear call spread
High IV and large call GEX/oi concentration at $65 (+$13.7M; 31,912 OI) creates a pin magnet just above spot; defined-risk call spread captures rich front-mid premium and limits assignment risk into earnings window.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–65% of max credit collected; if short 65 is tested (underlying ≥65) consider rolling up 2–5 strikes or close; cut losses if price >70 (the short spread width) or if IV spikes >+20% intraday
#2put spread (cash-secured / defined-risk)
Sell 60/55P 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
30–45 DTE preferred for theta sellers; 60 has big GEX (+$13.6M) and strong OI (38,861) providing put-side support via dealer hedging. ATM-mid-term IV (May 15 ATM ~73.6%) is elevated, paying better credit than short week while avoiding extreme weekly risk.
Mgmt: Close at 65% of max profit; if price falls and tests short 60, roll down 2–3 strikes or close to preserve capital; cut losses and close spread if price closes below $58.07 (1-week EM lower guardrail) or if IV collapses >30%
#3iron condor
Sell 60/62.5P (buy 55P) and 65/70C (buy 75C) 2026-05-22 (42 DTE) — wide iron condor centered inside 1–2 week EM
Combines the pinning magnets at 60/62.50/65 and collects high IV across both wings; defined risk on both sides reduces assignment risk during earnings tail and benefits from positive GEX pin behavior.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit; tighten or close if either short strike is tested (underlying ≤62.5 or ≥65); cut losses if underlying closes beyond either breakeven for two consecutive sessions
#4covered call (buy-write)
Buy 100 shares; sell 65C 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
If you want equity exposure, selling the 65C collects rich premium (chain shows 65C mid around $3.10–3.25 in longer weekly chains) while aligning with the $65 pin magnet; this converts directional exposure into an income trade.
Mgmt: Close call at 70% of max premium if stock rallies toward 65; consider buyback and roll up if assigned; cut stock if it breaks and holds below $58.07 EM guardrail
!Earnings 2026-04-23 (in ~13 days) — do not sell naked (unhedged) through earnings; prefer defined-risk or close positions prior to release
!Large positive GEX +$137.4M → pinning can compress moves but can also amplify direction if dealers lose hedging control; be ready to manage short strikes if price moves toward $65 or $60
!Heavy institutional call flow into $50 and $65 strikes (Top premium flow: $50 net call $12.2M; $65 net call $11.7M) — one-sided flow can reprice skew quickly
!Unusual activity: concentrated 4/17 and 4/24 puts at $62.50 and $60 — these ITM/near-ITM flows can bring assignment/early-exercise pressure on short puts during the week
!IV is already very elevated (Avg IV 78.6%) — watch for large IV collapses post-earnings which can hurt calendar/timing trades; defined-risk spreads preferred into event