base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Front-month put IV 184% vs call 126%, strong skew; structure upward sloping except 6/18 spike.
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+93.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,623 (24.1% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI 24.1% below spot; call wall $130-$150, put floor $60-$90.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $110.00/$109.00 put spread
Sell 110/109 put spread, max gain 0.47, loss capped at 0.53.
Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below 110; take profit at 50% max gain.
#2Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-06-12 $110.00 cash-secured put
Sell 110 put, collect 6.05 credit, assigned at 110 if below.
Mgmt: Roll if spot threatens 110; close at 50% profit.
#3Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-12 $110.00/$109.00 put wing and $120.00/$121.00 call wing
Sell 110/109 put wing and 120/121 call wing, max gain 0.88.
Mgmt: Adjust wings if breach; close at 50% profit or near expiry.
!Downside skew inflates put premiums but raises tail risk.
!Term structure spike on 6/18 suggests event risk.
!VIX low relative to IV; mean reversion possible.