Earnings Verdict
INTC 38D to earnings. Strong bullish flow, heavy call buying, high beat rate 80%. IV elevated, VIX 16. Spot above MP and gamma flip $105, upside bias.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 122.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Heavy call buying on $148 and $137 strikes suggests upside expectations; gamma pinning near $105 may limit downside.
🚀Heavy call buying at $148, 90x OI
⚠️Spot 22% above gamma flip $105
📊80% beat rate historically
🛑$150 call wall may resist
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$105.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,113 (17.9% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-23 (38 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-18 (3d): ±$9.20 (7.2%)
- 2026-06-26 (11d): ±$15.80 (12.4%)
- 2026-07-02 (17d): ±$19.35 (15.1%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Upward sloping: 3d IV~200%, 11d~120%, 17d~100% annualized.
Crush estimate: Post-earnings crush ~50-70% as event IV recedes.
Skew: Put skew elevated near $112 and $127; call skew steep above $148.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate; avg move ~±8% vs implied ~7%.
Directional bias: Bullish bias given high beat rate and heavy call flow.
Key Levels
1$105.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $118.66/$137.06
3Max pain pins: $58 (2026-06-18); $112 (2026-06-26); $110 (2026-07-02)
Flow Highlights
$262.9M net call premium, PCR vol 0.63.
Strong bullish flow; unusual $148 calls (10645 vol, 90x OI) indicate upside positioning.
Gamma flip near $105; spot at $127.
Pinning effect may cap downside but spot well above flip level.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Spot $127 22% above gamma flip $105; large gap risk if gamma flips.
!Call wall at $150/$150 may cap upside.
!High VIX (16) may amplify moves.
What to Watch
?Monday 6/16 price vs $118.66 EM guardrail.
?Flow in $140-$150 calls for continuation.
?Put OI concentration at $110-$70 for support.