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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $80.31EOD only
Max Pain
$80.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.46
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-0.31
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
3.80
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong pin to $80 (MP) and mean-reversion bias; Confidence: 6.5/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX (+$54.8M) concentrated at $80.50/$81.00, MP pinned at $80 across expiries, and very narrow near-term expected moves (2d EM $80.33–$80.67). Conflicts: Flow is bearish (net premium -$6.3M and heavy put flow at $77/$74) which slightly pressures downside if pin fails.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 6.5 (given); supported by concentrated positive GEX + MP alignment; discounted by net bearish premium flow and elevated put OI cluster at $79/$77.
Supports: GEX +$672M at $81.00 and +$118.2M at $80.50; Max Pain $80 across near expiries; 2d EM tight $80.33–$80.67.
Conflicts: Net premium -$6.3M with heavy put buying at $77/$74; P/C vol 2.43 and P/C OI 4.65 (put demand).
📌Pinning: GEX concentrated at $80.50 and $81.00 creates strong magnet inside today’s ±0.2% EM
🧯Sell-premium edge: overall low IV (avg IV 7.6%, ATM 3d=4.0%) favors premium sellers given positive GEX
⚠️Tail risk: heavy put OI at $79/$77/$74 and net bearish premium flow can accelerate downside if $79 (gamma flip ~$79) is breached

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low — Avg IV 7.6% and ultralow near-dated IV (3d ATM 4.0%, 10d 5.5%) — vol selling favorable for premium sellers.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning — GEX +$54.8M concentrated around $80.50/$81.00; dealers sell gamma near spot so small moves attract heavy hedging that pulls spot back into the pin.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow — net premium -$6.3M and strong put buying at $77/$79/$74 (P/C vol 2.43, P/C OI 4.65) indicating institutional downside hedging despite dealer pinning.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
At MP — spot $80.50 is within 0.6% of Max Pain $80 across multiple expiries; this creates a short-term magnet.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pin persists across several expirations (MP $80 for next several weeks) and GEX concentration holds across near-term expirations; prefer 30–45 DTE for core trades with weeklies tactical.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$80.33$80.67
Break under $80.33 or above $80.67 would require catalyst — failure toward $79 flips dealers to hedge selling.
Next 1 week
$80.16$80.84
Sustained move < $79.83 (2‑week lower bound) would hand control to put buyers and accelerate downside.
Next 2 weeks
$79.83$81.17
Break below gamma flip ~$79 removes dealer pinning and lets put-floor layers ($74–$76) become target.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-04-17); $80 (2026-04-24); $80 (2026-05-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $80.33/$80.67; 1w $80.16/$80.84
Support: $80.00 · $79.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $81.00 · $82.00 · $83.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 535,515 (1.9% below spot)
Structural: Structural put floor at $74–$76 (deep OI); large call OI cap at $81–$83 limits upside in multi-week horizon.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+54.8M

DEX: +155.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 535,515 (1.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $80.50 (+$118.2M) and $81.00 (+$672.0M) — dealers will buy dips into ~79 and sell rallies above ~81, meaning a ±2% move (~$78.90 / $82.11) will trigger strong delta hedging toward the pin and compress moves until gamma flip (~$79) is breached.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV is very low (Avg IV 7.6%, 3d ATM 4.0%) vs VIX 18.36 — sector vol cheap; favors selling structured premium rather than buying vol.

Term structure: Near-term skew inverted/hairpin: 3d 4.0% < 10d 5.5% < 17d 8.6% — mids have higher IV (kink around 17d), creating calendar/diagonal opportunities.

Skew: Skew: heavy put OI at 79/77/74 coexists with cheap short-dated IV — calendar/diagonal selling the 17d/31d expensive mid-dated ATM (sell higher-IV longer leg) is a mispriced vol opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$6.3M (bearish overall); heavy put premium at $77 and $74 suggests institutional hedging rather than directional long.

Directional prints: 19.9 put 77 OTM 2026-04-17 — Huge OI at $77 put (418,417 OI) and top premium flow shows net put sell at $77 vs call; prints indicate institutional put accumulation/rolls — could be buys for protection or dealer-sold positions. 10.9 put 79 OTM 2026-04-17 — $79 put OI 535,515 with sustained volume — large structural floor; buying here would be consistent with flow, but selling against the pin is also plausible; overall flow signals buying puts (bearish).

Unusual: 13.8 put 77 OTM 2026-12-18 — Unusual long-dated $77 put activity (HYG261218P00077000 Vol 7,500 vs OI 937) — institutional tail hedges or structured positioning into year-end.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$79 — breach removes dealer pin and can trigger accelerated downside via hedging and put liquidity concentration.
!Concentrated put demand at $79/$77/$74 may cause sudden one-way flows if macro headlines hit; net premium negative increases downside risk even as dealers pin.
!Very low short-dated IV (3d=4.0%) makes buying protection cheap but also means short-dated premium sellers can be challenged if a volatility shock (VIX spike) occurs.
!Weekend/expiry clustering: MP pinned at $80 on 4/17 and subsequent weeks — expiries near each other raise roll/forced-hedge risk.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockWeak
Buy HYG shares at market
Coupon/interest-rate risk and limited edge vs pinning dealers
Short stockModerate-Weak
Short HYG shares (tactical)
Dealer hedging and large GEX near spot likely to pin and create mean-reversion losses
Covered callModerate
Buy 100 shares + sell 2026-05-01 81.00 call
Call OI at $81 caps upside; assignment if rally; limited downside protection
Cash-secured put (CSP)Moderate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-01 $79.00 put cash-secured
Gamma flip below ~$79 exposes assignment into heavy put OI at lower strikes
Bull put spread (defined-risk)Strong
Sell 2026-05-01 $79.00 / Buy $77.00 put spread
If spot < $77, full spread loss; protects against tail while collecting premium near MP
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-05-01 $77.00 put / Sell $74.00 put (bear put spread)
Costs due to low IV; better to use for leverage if convinced downside breaks gamma flip
Iron condor (short premium wings)Moderate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-24 $80.00 put / Buy $79.00 put AND Sell $81.00 call / Buy $82.00 call (short condor around the pin)
VIX spike or break < ~$79 wipes put side; tight EM means small credit but high probability
Calendar / Reverse calendarModerate
Sell 2026-05-01 ATM call (higher IV 8.6%) and buy 2026-04-17 ATM call (lower IV 4.0%) — reverse calendar (sell longer leg) at ATM
Requires spot remain near sold strike; movement plus IV normalization on short-dated leg hurts trade
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate
Buy shares or LEAP + sell short-dated calls at $81.00 (prefer 94d 2026-07-17 call sell if available)
Long-term carry and rate/credit spread risk; structure gives income with downside exposure

Top Plays

#1
Defined-risk put spread (core)
Sell 2026-05-01 $79.00 / Buy $77.00 put spread
Collect premium near MP while respecting dealer pin and large call GEX; defined risk under concentrated put layers.
Credit: $0.40-$0.55
Max loss: $199.60
BE: $78.60
Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit or roll down if spot < $79 for 30+ min; cut at close < $78.50 or IV spike +30%.
Accounts wanting high-probability defined-risk premium
#2
Short iron condor (tactical weekly)
Sell 2026-04-24 $80.00 put / Buy $79.00 put AND Sell $81.00 call / Buy $82.00 call
Plays the tight 1-week EM and strong GEX pin for high-probability short premium across expiries clustered at $80.
Credit: $0.06-$0.12
Max loss: $94.94
BE: $80.00 ± credit
Mgmt: Take 50% profit at half-life or close if spot breaches $79 or $81 for 30 min.
Tactical premium sellers who accept short window and active management
#3
Multi-week reverse calendar (vol arb)
Sell 2026-05-01 80.00 ATM call (IV 8.6%) and buy 2026-04-17 80.00 ATM call (IV 4.0%) — reverse calendar
Exploits mid-term IV kink (17d rich vs 3d cheap); sells higher-IV longer leg while short-dated bought call hedges gamma during pin.
Credit: $0.00-$0.10
Max loss: Varies
BE: N/A
Mgmt: Close if 17d IV compresses < 3d IV differential or spot moves > ±0.6% off $80.50 for sustained 30 min.
Traders comfortable with short-dated exposure and selling mid-dated vol

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot trades and holds $80.50 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-01 $79.00 / $77.00 put spread
IFIf spot remains inside $80.33–$80.67 for 60 minutes → Establish 2026-04-24 iron condor Sell 80.00P/Buy 79.00P and Sell 81.00C/Buy 82.00C
IFIf spot bounces to $81.00 and stalls 30 min with volume contraction → Sell 2026-05-01 $81.00 covered call against stock or PMCC sell 81.00 call 30–45 DTE
Exit Triggers
EXITIf trade reaches 60–70% of max profit → Close position and harvest premium (applies to spreads and condors)
EXITIf spot trades < $78.90 (breach of gamma flip ~$79) → Exit all short premium and shift to protective puts or buy VIX/sector protection

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers pin HYG to $80; short premium is favored (sell put spreads and short condors) while respecting concentrated put OI and gamma flip at ~$79; invalidation is sustained close < $78.90 which removes dealer pin and favors directional long puts. Top plays: defined-risk 79/77 put spread (core, 30+ DTE), weekly 4/24 short iron condor (tactical), reverse calendar 5/1 vs 4/17 (vol arb) — choose by risk tolerance and management style.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
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