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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.87EOD only

Max Pain

$80.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.24

0.3% from close

Price Gap

+0.13

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

5.31

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

HYG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

HYG shows low vol and spot at max pain $80, suggesting near-term pin. However, bearish flow and large negative dealer gamma ($-3.0B) imply risk of downside break, especially if $79 gamma flip is breached. Overall, a neutral-to-bearish bias with a multi-week horizon, favoring downside leans in the price ranges.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; GEX/flow alignment adds 2; spot proximity to MP adds 1; low VIX adds 1.

Supports: Low vol, max pain pin at $80, dealer long delta (positive DEX) may support price near $80.
Conflicts: Bearish flow, negative GEX (short gamma) could cause downside break, gamma flip at $79.

📌Max pain at $80 aligns with spot; pin action likely.

📉Bearish flow with negative GEX suggests downside risk.

🔄Gamma flip at $79 is key level for downside acceleration.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV low vs HV and sector, implying limited worry about credit spread moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Large negative GEX ($-3.0B) indicates dealer short gamma, amplifying trends; gamma flip near $79.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net bearish premium flow suggests institutional put buying or call selling.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $80, aligning with max pain; pin action likely short-term.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Low vol and max pain pin suggest range-bound near $80, but negative GEX and bearish flow may push lower; flip at $79 is key.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$79.73$80.10

Pin near $80 max pain; low vol.

Next 1 week

$79.13$80.70

Bearish flow may push to gamma flip at $79.

Next 2 weeks

$79.02$80.80

Break below $79 targets lower support at $78.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-15); $80 (2026-05-22); $80 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $79.73/$80.10; 1w $79.13/$80.70

Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00

Resistance: $80.00 · $80.80 · $81.00

Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 486,264 (1.1% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins at $80; EM guardrails: 2d $79.73/$80.10, 1w $79.13/$80.70; gamma flip near $79; support: $79, $78, $77; resistance: $80, $80.80, $81.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-3.0B

DEX: +160.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 486,264 (1.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX: -$3.0B; DEX: +160.6M shares; gamma flip ~$79 (based on put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV is moderately rich vs historical but cheap vs VIX given credit sensitivity.

Term structure: Term structure slightly upward sloping with no major event kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated reflecting downside hedging demand; opportunity: selling puts at $79 gamma flip level to capture premium if spot stays above.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net bearish put flow: -$3.7M premium, put/call vol ratio 1.58, OI ratio 5.26.

Directional prints: 25.7 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 3.7x, heavy new put buying at $81 for May expiry, bearish hedge. 18.9 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 2.2x, $82 put buying into Nov, positioned for downside. 24.2 put 73 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 2.0x, $73 put buying, deep downside protection added.

Unusual: 25.7 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Unusual volume spike, 3.7x OI, aggressive short-term put buying. 18.9 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Elevated put volume vs OI, bearish mid-term positioning. 22.3 put 75 OTM 2027-04-16 — 2.1x OI, long-dated put buying for downside over next year.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $79 gamma flip could accelerate selling to $78 or lower.

!Spike in credit spreads due to macro event.

!Unexpected rate hike could pressure HYG.

!Dealer short gamma amplifies moves.

!Low liquidity in HYG options.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bearish risk reversal	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-12 $79.00 put / sell 2026-06-12 $82.00 call Why now: Large negative dealer gamma and bearish flow favor downside; selling upside call captures IV skew.	If HYG rallies sharply, short call caps upside beyond strike. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bearish risk reversal on HYG

Buy 2026-06-12 $79.00 put / sell 2026-06-12 $82.00 call

Buy $79 put, sell $82 call for June expiry to express bearish view with limited risk.

Why this play: Large negative dealer gamma and bearish flow support downside; selling upside call captures IV skew.

Debit: $0.16-$0.20

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: $82.00

Mgmt: Monitor for break below $79; adjust if invalidated above $80. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders expecting downside break below $79 gamma flip.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF HYG spot price drops below $79.00 gamma flip level → Enter bearish risk reversal: buy $79 put, sell $82 call (June expiry)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF HYG spot price rises above $80.00 invalidation level → Close bearish risk reversal: buy back $82 call, sell $79 put

Tactical Summary

HYG shows neutral-to-bearish bias with large negative dealer gamma (-$3.0B) and gamma flip at $79. Max pain pins at $80. Support at $79, $78, $77; resistance $80, $80.80, $81. Preferred play is bearish risk reversal targeting downside break below $79, invalidated above $80. Monitor credit spreads and macro events.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.