thetaOwl
HomeOptionsHYGReports

HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.35EOD only
Max Pain
$79.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.23
0.3% from close
Price Gap
+0.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
3.74
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

HYG likely to grind lower toward $79 support over next week, with potential pin near $80 at expiry. Bearish bias with range-bound risk.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +1 spot near MP +0.5 VIX 18 = 8.5
Supports: Bearish flow, negative GEX, low vol, spot at MP
Conflicts: Positive DEX (+179.8M shares) buffers declines; gamma flip at $79 provides support
📉Bearish flow and negative GEX aligned for downside pressure
📌Max pain pinned at $80 across expiries, creating resistance
🛡️Gamma flip at $79 offers support from put OI concentration

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
IV cheap vs VIX 18 and HYG history, reducing premium for directional plays.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending regime with -$1.8B GEX; negative gamma amplifies moves, flip near $79 adds support.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow with net put premium suggests downside hedging.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot $79.20 near MP $80; gamma concentration may pin price near $80.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiries with max pain $80 and gamma flip $79 create range-bound structure; low vol supports slow drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$79.11$79.58
Gamma flip at 79 caps downside; bearish flow may test support.
Next 1 week
$78.83$79.86
Bearish flow and negative GEX favor drift to lower bound.
Next 2 weeks
$78.48$80.21
Max pain $80 and flip $79 create range.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-22); $80 (2026-05-29); $80 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $79.11/$79.58; 1w $78.83/$79.86
Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $79.50 · $80.21 · $81.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 526,069 (0.4% below spot)
Structural: Support: 79.0, 78.0, 77.0; Resistance: 79.5, 80.21, 81.0; Max pain pins: $80 all expiries; Gamma flip: ~$79.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.8B

DEX: +179.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 526,069 (0.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: $-1.8B GEX (negative, amplifying moves), +179.8M DEX (long delta), gamma flip ~$79 from put OI concentration (526k contracts).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV cheap vs VIX 18, typical for low-vol bond ETF; low premium for options.

Term structure: Flat/backwardated in low vol environment; no major event kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to bearish flow; selling puts at gamma flip could be attractive.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$17.3M, put/call vol 2.72, OI 3.74, bearish.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 13.9 put 80 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 510 vs OI 101, ratio 5.0; aggressive put buying. 14.6 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2003 vs OI 548, ratio 3.7; heavy put volume. 17.8 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol 396 vs OI 180, ratio 2.2; longer-dated put buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!VIX spike could increase IV and break range.
!Bearish flow may accelerate if credit spreads widen.
!Gamma flip failure below 79 could trigger stop-loss selling.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-05 $79.00/$77.00 put spread
Why now: Bearish flow and high put/call ratio support further decline; limited risk from spread.
If HYG reverses above $80, spread loses value; IV spike can widen bid/ask. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (79%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-05 $80.50/$82.00 call spread
Why now: Resistance at $80; premium decay benefits from low IV and time decay.
Unexpected rally above short strike (e.g., credit spread widening) causes loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-05 $79.00/$77.00 put spread
Expresses bearish view with defined risk, leveraging elevated put activity.
Why this play: Directly capitalizes on bearish thesis with favorable risk/reward; outperforms call credit spread due to higher probability of profit.
Debit: $0.24-$0.30
Max loss: $0.30
BE: $78.70
Mgmt: Exit if HYG closes above $79.5; take profit at 50% max gain or expiry if below $77. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (79%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Bearish traders seeking limited risk exposure.
#2
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $80.50/$82.00 call spread
Sells upside calls to collect premium, betting on HYG staying below $80.50.
Why this play: Alternative bearish play profiting from time decay with resistance at $80; less direct than put spread.
Credit: $0.14-$0.18
Max loss: $1.32
BE: $80.68
Mgmt: Close if HYG breaks above $80.5; manage assignment risk near expiry. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Traders expecting sideways to slightly lower movement with low IV.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFHYG holds below $79.5 for 2 consecutive 15min candles → Enter HYG_BEAR_PUT_SPRD_1 at market debit (target $0.24-$0.30)
IFHYG stays between $79.5 and $80.2 → Sell HYG_CALL_CREDIT_SPRD_1 for $0.14-$0.18 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITHYG closes above $79.5 → Exit HYG_BEAR_PUT_SPRD_1 to limit loss
EXITHYG breaks above $80.5 → Close HYG_CALL_CREDIT_SPRD_1 to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, support $79, resistance $79.5/$80.21. Top plays: bear put spread ($79/$77) and call credit spread ($80.5/$82). Monitor gamma flip at $79.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.