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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.91EOD only
Max Pain
$80.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.18
0.2% from close
Price Gap
+0.09
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
52
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
5.26
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

HYG remains range-bound near $80 max pain with low vol and bullish flow, suggesting slight upward drift but capped by resistance at $80.4. Neutral to slightly bullish bias for near term.

Confidence:
6 / 10
Base 5 adjusted by -1 for GEX/flow contradiction, +1 for spot proximity to max pain (0.2%), +1 for VIX at 17.
Supports: Bullish flow, low vol, spot at max pain.
Conflicts: Short gamma ($-3.5B), negative GEX/flow synergy, narrow range resistance at $80.4.
🟢Bullish flow premium supports drift higher.
🔴Short gamma $ -3.5B; flip at $79 poses risk.
🟡Max pain $80 pin for all expiries anchors spot.
📉Low vol regime; IV cheap vs VIX 17.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low vol: IV low relative to VIX and historical range, confirming compression and typical range-bound behavior.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: GEX negative ($-3.5B) with gamma flip at $79; dealers actively hedging, amplifying moves near flip.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow: Net positive premium indicates call buying or put selling, providing upward bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at max pain ($80) within low vol range; pin probability elevated for short-dated options.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Low vol, max pain pins through May 29, and no specific catalyst suggest a sustained range-bound regime.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$79.61$80.09
Max pain $80 pin for May 15 expiry anchors spot; low vol supports tight range.
Next 1 week
$79.60$80.10
Bullish flow and low vol drift towards $80.1 EM guardrail; resistance at $80.4.
Next 2 weeks
$79.30$80.40
Wider range $79.3-$80.4; gamma flip at $79 provides support, upside target $80.4.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-15); $80 (2026-05-22); $80 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $79.61/$80.09; 1w $79.60/$80.10
Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $80.00 · $80.40 · $81.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 487,614 (1.1% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins at $80 for 2026-05-15, 2026-05-22, 2026-05-29. EM guardrails: 2d 79.61-80.09, 1w 79.60-80.10. Support: 79.0 (gamma flip), 78.0, 77.0. Resistance: 80.0, 80.4, 81.0. Gamma flip ~$79 based on put OI concentration 1.1% below spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-3.5B

DEX: +152.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 487,614 (1.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma ($-3.5B) and long deltas (+152.1M shares). Gamma flip near $79 provides support but amplifies volatility if broken.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV cheap vs VIX 17, consistent with low vol regime. Low vol encourages premium selling.

Term structure: Flat to slightly contango, no event kinks; yields modest premium for longer-dated options.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to hedging demand. Opportunity to sell OTM puts below $79 for premium with support at gamma flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium strongly positive ($29.9M) with call volume dominating (P/C vol 0.31) but OI skewed puts (P/C OI 5.2), indicating aggressive call buying against heavy put open interest.

Directional prints: 6.9 call 81 OTM 2026-11-20 — Volume 265K vs OI 25.6K (10.3x). Likely aggressive buying of OTM calls, directional bullish for Nov expiration.

Unusual: 6.9 call 81 OTM 2026-11-20 — Massive call sweep relative to OI, well above IV skew. Suggests institutional bullish positioning. 11.9 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Volume 2K vs OI 548 (3.7x). Could be short-term bearish put buying or hedging near term expiration. 13.1 put 77 OTM 2026-11-20 — Volume 2K vs OI 702 (2.9x). Unusually high put activity at low strike; possibly protective tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $79 gamma flip could trigger dealer delta hedging cascade accelerating decline.
!Unexpected macro shock (e.g., credit spread widening) would spike vol and break range.
!Max pain $80 pin failure if spot closes far from $80, leading to violent dealer rebalancing.
!Rising rates or risk-off sentiment could pressure HYG as high-yield bonds sell off.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-05-29 $79.50/$78.00 put spread
Why now: Low vol, bullish flow, heavy put OI at 79 support.
Break below 79 triggers max loss. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (164%).; long_put: Volume below 5.
Bull call spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-05-29 $80.00/$81.00 call spread
Why now: Max pain pin, bullish flow, cheap cost with capped risk.
Spot fails to rally, spread expires worthless. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (140%).; short_call: Volume below 5.
Cash-secured putModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-05-29 $79.50 cash-secured put
Why now: Heavy put OI at 79, bullish flow, premium attractive.
Spot drops below 79.5, assignment at elevated cost. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (164%).

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-05-29 $80.00/$81.00 call spread
Buy $80/$81 call spread for upside drift.
Why this play: Cheap cost, capped risk, best risk/reward given bullish flow and max pain pin near $80.
Debit: $0.18-$0.21
Max loss: $0.21
BE: $80.21
Mgmt: Exit near $81 or on break below $79. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (140%).; short_call: Volume below 5.
Traders expecting modest upside with defined risk.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-05-29 $79.50/$78.00 put spread
Sell $79.50/$78 put spread to collect premium.
Why this play: Bullish play with low vol and heavy put OI support at $79.50; premium attractive.
Credit: $0.05-$0.07
Max loss: $1.43
BE: $79.43
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot drops below $79. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (164%).; long_put: Volume below 5.
Traders seeking income with support from put OI.
#3
Cash-Secured Put
Sell 2026-05-29 $79.50 cash-secured put
Sell $79.50 cash-secured put for premium.
Why this play: High premium but large capital at risk; less efficient than spreads.
Credit: $0.10-$0.12
Max loss: $79.38
BE: $79.38
Mgmt: Roll if tested, or close at 50% profit. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (164%).
Traders willing to buy shares at $79.50 and collect premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot holds above $79 and reaches $80 → Buy 2026-05-29 $80.00/$81.00 call spread
IFIf spot above $79.50 → Sell 2026-05-29 $79.50/$78.00 put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot breaks below $79 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

HYG range-bound near $80 max pain with bullish flow. Preferred plays: bull call spread for upside drift, put credit spread for income. Risk: break below $79 gamma flip. Manage accordingly.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.