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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.86EOD only

Max Pain

$79.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.31

0.4% from close

Price Gap

-0.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

3.92

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

HYG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias on HYG as bearish flow and trending gamma align with spot at max pain $80; low vol supports gradual downside with dealer gamma flip near $79 as key support break.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17 low vol backdrop; total 9/10.

Supports: GEX -$902.8M (dealer short gamma) with bearish flow; spot ($80) at max pain; low VIX (17) reduces vol drag on bearish positions.
Conflicts: None significant; bearish flow and gamma alignment consistent.

🐻Bearish flow and short gamma reinforce downside pressure.

🎯Spot pinned at $80 max pain; gamma flip at $79 (1.1% below) is key trigger.

🔋Low vol (VIX 17) favors gradual trending moves, not spikes.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low (VIX 17); IV likely in line with historic range, allowing smooth trending without vol expansion.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending regime with -$902.8M GEX; dealers net short gamma, amplifying moves; gamma flip at $79 based on put OI.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish net premium flow with high put activity; consistent with downside hedging by dealers.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $80 (max pain); immediately at the pin, suggesting magnet effect and potential reversal if holds.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Low vol, trending gamma, and structural dealer positioning suggest sustained directional pressure beyond events.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$79.55$80.17

Range $79.55-$80.17; spot at $80; bearish bias with flip at $79.55 support.

Next 1 week

$79.37$80.35

Range $79.37-$80.35; gamma flip lies within; weakness likely toward $79.37.

Next 2 weeks

$78.90$80.82

Range $78.9-$80.82; resistance at $80.82; structural downside if $79 breaks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-22); $80 (2026-05-29); $80 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 2d $79.55/$80.17; 1w $79.37/$80.35

Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00

Resistance: $80.82 · $81.00

Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 517,812 (1.1% below spot)

Structural: Support 79.0 (gamma flip), 78.0, 77.0; resistance 80.82, 81.0. MP pins: $80 for 2026-05-22 & 05-29; 2d guardrails $79.55/$80.17, 1w $79.37/$80.35.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-902.8M

DEX: +175.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 517,812 (1.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$902.8M (short gamma); DEX +175.1M shares; gamma flip at ~$79 based on put OI (517,812 contracts 1.1% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV likely near VIX (17) given low vol in credit; not rich, providing no premium headwind for bearish options.

Term structure: Likely contango with low vol; front expiration (May 22) at max pain $80; no event kinks visible.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to bearish flow; selling put spreads near $79 support could capture decay but risk of gamma flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$10.3M, put/call vol ratio 1.9, OI ratio 3.9, indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 35.4 put 72 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 7.3x, OI 2,751. Heavy put volume suggests aggressive downside hedging; likely bought. Preferred: bearish. 17.7 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 3.7x, OI 548. Elevated put activity near term; likely bought. Preferred: bearish.

Unusual: 4.1 call 80 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 2.0x, OI 3,180, IV 4.1% unusually low. Large call volume likely sold, capping upside. Preferred: bearish/neutral. 19.2 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 2.2x, OI 180. Long-dated put buying; protective positioning. Preferred: bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails to break $79 gamma flip, reversing higher to $80.82 resistance.

!Credit event or macro shift spikes VIX, invalidating low-vol thesis.

!Dealer short gamma could accelerate both directions; stops or hedging may cause overshoot.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-08-21 $79.00/$77.00 put wing and $82.00/$84.00 call wing Why now: Dominant bearish flow and high put volume support near-term downside; low vol environment favors defined-risk premium strategies.	If HYG rallies above $82 or drops below $77, losses limited to width of wings; also risk of vol expansion. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (52%).; short_call: Wide spread (143%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00/$78.00 put spread Why now: Heavy put flow and dealer short gamma support downside. Defined risk with manageable theta.	If spot holds $79, spread loses value; upside risk to $80.82.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put Why now: Bearish flow and low vol favor directional put purchase. Unlimited downside if spot drops.	Theta decay and spot holding above support can erode value; premium paid.
Call credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-06-18 $81.00/$94.00 call spread Why now: Low vol and bearish sentiment make OTM call sales attractive. Defined risk if spot jumps.	Upside break above resistance can cause loss; vol spike increases short call risk. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Bearish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put / sell 2026-06-18 $81.00 call Why now: Low cost structure; call premium offsets put cost. Efficient for directional downside.	If spot rallies, short call caps gains; if vol rises, both legs suffer.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00/$78.00 put spread

Buy $79/$78 put spread, captures downside with manageable theta.

Why this play: Best fit: bearish flow, low vol, key $79 support break, defined risk.

Debit: $0.15-$0.18

Max loss: $0.18

BE: $78.82

Mgmt: Exit if spot >80.82 or target reached near $78.

Gradual decline to $78, defined risk.

Long Put

Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put

Buy $79 put, benefits from downside move with limited loss.

Why this play: Direct bearish, unlimited gain if spot drops, but higher theta.

Debit: $0.33-$0.40

Max loss: $0.40

BE: $78.60

Mgmt: Monitor theta decay; exit if spot rises above 80.82.

Aggressive traders expecting sharp decline.

Bearish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put / sell 2026-06-18 $81.00 call

Buy $79 put, sell $81 call, creates synthetic short.

Why this play: Low cost, efficient downside with call premium offset.

Debit: $0.31-$0.38

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: $81.00

Mgmt: Watch short call if spot rises; close if above 80.82.

Low-cost directional exposure with defined call risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFHYG spot breaks below $79 (gamma flip) → Buy the HYG $79/$78 bear put spread for 0.15-0.18 credit.

IFHYG spot breaks below $79 with strong momentum → Buy the HYG $79 put for 0.33-0.40 debit.

IFHYG spot holds near $79 and bearish flow persists → Enter HYG bearish risk reversal: buy $79 put, sell $81 call for net credit 0.31-0.38.

Exit Triggers

EXITHYG spot rises above $80.82 (resistance) → Close all bearish positions (puts, put spreads, risk reversals) to limit losses.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on HYG with key $79 gamma flip support. Favor bear put spreads and long puts targeting $78-$77. Exit if spot reclaims $80.82. Monitor dealer gamma and low vol for gradual downside. Defined risk preferred due to unlimited loss potential on risk reversals.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.