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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.90EOD only
Max Pain
$79.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.24
0.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
3.88
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias due to bearish flow, negative dealer gamma, low vol enables directional moves. Expect downside toward gamma flip at $79.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17 => 9/10.
Supports: Dealer short gamma, long delta; bearish flow; low vol.
Conflicts: Spot at max pain $80 may pin near term.
🔴Bearish flow and negative GEX align for downside.
📉Gamma flip at $79 key level for acceleration.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
VIX at 16.7 low; HYG options vol low, supporting trending moves.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Dealers short gamma (-$615M) with flip at $79; amplifies directional moves.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow from net put premium; consistent with negative GEX.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot near max pain $80 across expiries; pin action expected near term.
Thesis duration: Structural — Persistent dealer positioning (short gamma/long delta) and low vol suggest multi-week trend.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$79.50$80.32
Downside toward 79.5 support; gamma flip at 79.
Next 2 weeks
$79.26$80.56
Break of 79 opens path to 78.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-22); $80 (2026-05-29); $80 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 1w $79.50/$80.32
Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $80.56 · $81.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 511,894 (1.1% below spot)
Structural: Support: 79.0 (gamma flip), 78.0; Resistance: 80.56 (1W guardrail), 81.0; Max pain $80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-615.2M

DEX: +172.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 511,894 (1.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma $615M, long delta 172M shares. Negative gamma accelerates moves; flip at $79 increases hedging risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV low vs its own history; VIX comparison cross-asset (credit vs equity) but both subdued.

Term structure: Flat term structure; no event kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling OTM puts may capture decay if support holds.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$6.85M, put/call vol ratio 2.14, OI ratio 3.83; bearish flow.

Directional prints: 11 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2003 vs OI 548 (ratio 3.7); likely bought new bearish put; preferred read bearish. 19.4 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol 396 vs OI 180 (ratio 2.2); likely bought bearish hedge; preferred read bearish.

Unusual: 11 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2003 vs OI 548 (ratio 3.7); likely bought new bearish put; preferred read bearish. 19.4 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol 396 vs OI 180 (ratio 2.2); likely bought bearish hedge; preferred read bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside risk from short covering if spot holds $80.
!Gamma flip at $79 could cause rapid reversal.
!Max pain pin may limit near-term downside.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-17 $79.00/$77.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread captures downside with controlled risk, aligned with structural bearish bias.
Upside risk if spot holds $80; gamma flip may cause reversal. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (81%).
Bearish risk reversalWeak
Buy 2026-07-17 $79.00 put / sell 2026-07-17 $81.00 call
Why now: Low vol allows cheap long put; short call caps upside; aligns with bearish flow and gamma flip risk.
Short call limits upside if rally; put premium may decay if spot stalls. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (67%).
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put
Why now: Heavy put OI at $79 and bearish flow suggest continued downside; long put offers convexity.
Time decay if spot holds; low vol limits move magnitude.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put $79
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put
Direct long put on $79 strike to profit from decline toward gamma flip.
Why this play: Liquid, aligned with heavy OI and bearish flow; captures convex downside.
Debit: $0.23-$0.28
Max loss: $0.28
BE: $78.72
Mgmt: Exit if spot holds above $80.56.
Pure bearish exposure with defined risk.
#2
Bear Put Spread $79/$77
Buy 2026-07-17 $79.00/$77.00 put spread
Debit spread targeting gamma flip zone with capped loss.
Why this play: Defined risk captures downside; less liquid but controlled.
Debit: $0.25-$0.30
Max loss: $0.30
BE: $78.70
Mgmt: Manage at $80.56; hold to expiry or take profit at $1.70. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (81%).
Risk-averse bears wanting capped loss.
#3
Bearish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-17 $79.00 put / sell 2026-07-17 $81.00 call
Buy put, sell call to finance downside; capital efficient.
Why this play: Low vol cheap put; but unlimited upside risk and low liquidity.
Debit: $0.48-$0.59
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: $81.00
Mgmt: Close if short call challenged above $81. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (67%).
Aggressive traders comfortable with unlimited risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF HYG closes below $79.0 → THEN buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put at limit $0.28
IFIF HYG holds below $80.56 and trades within $0.20 of $79.00 → THEN initiate bear put spread 2026-07-17 $79/$77 for debit $0.30
Exit Triggers
EXITIF HYG rallies above $80.56 → THEN close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on HYG: heavy put OI at $79, negative dealer gamma, low vol. Key support $79 (gamma flip), resistance $80.56 (guardrail). Preferred entry on break below $79 via liquid long put, or bear put spread near $79 for defined risk. Invalidation above $80.56. Target zone $78-79.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.