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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.90EOD only
Max Pain
$79.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.24
0.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
3.88
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias as low vol and bearish flow point to downside pressure; spot pinned at $80 max pain with dealer short gamma (GEX -$763M). High confidence in drift toward $79.40-79.21 support zone.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned (dealer short gamma + net put flow); +1 spot at max pain $80; +1 VIX at 17.
Supports: Dealer short gamma, bearish net flow, low vol regime, pin at $80 max pain.
Conflicts: None significant; spot at max pain typically stable but bearish flow suggests gradual decline.
📉Negative gamma ($-763M) amplifies downward moves; dealers sell into weakness.
📍Spot at $80 max pain for all expiries; pinning but flow tilted puts.
🔻Bearish flow: net put premium suggests institutional hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low IV vs historical, implying complacency. Low vol regime favors gradual directional moves rather than sharp breaks.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending negative gamma; dealers are net short gamma, hedging by selling into rallies and buying into dips, accelerating moves lower.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish net premium flow; puts dominating calls, indicating demand for downside protection or bearish bets.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at $80 exactly coinciding with max pain for all weekly and monthly expiries; strong pinning effect.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer hedging and bearish flow across multiple tenors (1w, 2w) suggest a multi-week drift, not a single event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$79.66$80.15
Resistance at $80.15 cap; support at $79.66 gamma flip area.
Next 1 week
$79.40$80.41
Key support $79.40 (1w low); gamma flip ~$79 may attract acceleration.
Next 2 weeks
$79.21$80.60
Support $79.21 (2w low); below that opens $78-77.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-22); $80 (2026-05-29); $80 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $79.66/$80.15; 1w $79.40/$80.41
Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $80.60 · $81.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 512,616 (1.1% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pin at $80; support $79.66 (2d), $79.40 (1w), $79.21 (2w) with gamma flip ~$79; resistance $80.15 (2d), $80.41 (1w), $80.6 (2w); structural supports $79, $78, $77; resistance $81.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-763.2M

DEX: +171.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 512,616 (1.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$763.2M (negative gamma trending); DEX +171M shares long; gamma flip ~$79 based on high put OI concentration (512,616 contracts ~1.1% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV is relatively low vs VIX, indicating cheap options for a bond ETF; low vol environment supports bearish thesis as volatility risk premium is minimal.

Term structure: Flat to slight contango; near-term expiries cheap, backwardation absent; no event kinks suggest orderly drift.

Skew: Put skew elevated relative to calls; selling puts at $79 support could offer premium but risk of gamma flip break; prefer put credit spreads if bearish sentiment persists.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$7.2M, put/call volume ratio 2.27, OI ratio 3.88, strong bearish flow.

Directional prints: 13.8 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2003 vs OI 548 (3.7x), aggressive put buying. Bearish. 19.3 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol 396 vs OI 180 (2.2x), new put positioning. Bearish.

Unusual: 13.8 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2003 vs OI 548 (3.7x), heavy put buying. 19.3 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol 396 vs OI 180 (2.2x), notable put flow. 16 put 73 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 282 vs OI 177 (1.6x), small put activity.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside break of gamma flip at $79 could trigger accelerated selling via dealer hedging.
!Upside surprise from dovish Fed or credit spread tightening could reverse bearish flow.
!Liquidity risk in credit markets causing sudden price dislocations.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.00/$75.50 put spread
Why now: Dealer short gamma fuels downside; aggressive put buying confirms bearish bias.
Upside surprise from dovish Fed or credit tightening could reverse. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.00 put
Why now: Bearish flow and negative gamma suggest price acceleration through support.
Time decay and low vol environment; position must be sized for multi-week hold. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Bearish risk reversalModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.00 put / sell 2026-06-26 $80.50 call
Why now: Bearish flow and max pain pin; call premium offsets put cost in low IV regime.
Upside move beyond short call strike caps gains; call assignment risk if rally. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bear put spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.00/$75.50 put spread
Expresses bearish bias with put debit spread targeting $75.50 support.
Why this play: Best risk-adjusted: defined risk, low cost, benefits from downside acceleration via dealer gamma.
Debit: $0.22-$0.26
Max loss: $0.26
BE: $78.74
Mgmt: Exit if spot > $80.60; consider early close into weakness. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Open interest below 25.
Traders seeking defined risk with high probability on drift.
#2
Long put
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.00 put
Outright put to profit from breakdown below $79 support.
Why this play: Direct downside bet; higher payout but higher cost and time decay.
Debit: $0.32-$0.39
Max loss: $0.39
BE: $78.61
Mgmt: Stop loss at $80.60; roll if thesis weakens. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders expecting sharp decline.
#3
Bearish risk reversal
Buy 2026-06-26 $79.00 put / sell 2026-06-26 $80.50 call
Synthetic short via bought put and sold call.
Why this play: Lower net cost but unlimited upside risk; requires active management.
Debit: $0.27-$0.33
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: $80.50
Mgmt: Monitor call side; cover on reversal above $80.60. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Experienced traders with high risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot breaks below $79.66 → Enter bear put spread $79/$75.50 at $0.22-$0.26
IFSpot breaks below $79.00 → Buy $79 put at $0.32-$0.39
IFSpot holds $80 resistance and reverses → Execute bearish risk reversal at $0.27-$0.33
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot rises above $80.60 → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias; high confidence drift to $79.40-$79.21 support. Key gamma flip at $79, max pain $80 with -$763M GEX. Invalidation above $80.60.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.