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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.91EOD only
Max Pain
$79.50
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.41
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.41
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
8
Low premium
P/C OI
3.84
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
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Outlook

Bearish bias due to negative dealer gamma and bearish flow, with pinning risk at $80 max pain. Low vol environment supports range-bound downside toward $79 gamma flip.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 spot near MP +1 low VIX = 9.
Supports: Bearish flow, negative gamma, put OI at $79, low vol.
Conflicts: Spot at max pain $80, long delta buffers declines.
🔻Negative gamma suggests acceleration on breakdown below $79.81 support.
🎯Max pain $80 across all expiries acts as magnet for pinning.
🛡️Low VIX (17) reduces tail risk, limiting downside velocity.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low vol environment; VIX at 17, HYG IV likely below typical range due to subdued credit stress.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma (-$220M) with trending gamma aligns with sell pressure; gamma flip at $79 via put OI concentration.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow with net premium selling; P/C ratio indicates put dominance.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at MP ($80) neutral but negative gamma implies pinning risk toward expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming weekly expiries (May 29, Jun 5/12) with high put OI at $79 create event-driven pinning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$79.81$80.56
Negative gamma may drag spot toward $79.81 support.
Next 1 week
$79.43$80.93
Put OI concentration at $79, gamma flip key level.
Next 2 weeks
$79.86$80.51
Low vol limits downside to $78 support; resistance at $80.51.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-29); $80 (2026-06-05); $80 (2026-06-12)
EM guardrails: 2d $79.81/$80.56; 1w $79.43/$80.93
Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00
Resistance: $80.51 · $81.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 520,928 (1.5% below spot)
Structural: Support: $79 (gamma flip), $78, $77. Resistance: $80.51 (1w high), $81. Max pain $80 for all expiries.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-220.1M

DEX: +165.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 520,928 (1.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma (-$220M) with long delta (+165.8M shares); vulnerability to downward moves. Gamma flip at $79 (put OI 1.5% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV slightly rich vs VIX due to credit spread volatility but still low absolute, limiting premium selling.

Term structure: Flat to mildly backwardated; near-term expiry has elevated pinning risk.

Skew: Put skew elevated below $79; opportunity in put spreads targeting gamma flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$6.0M, put/call vol ratio 3.34, OI ratio 3.90, bearish.

Directional prints: 19.5 put 75 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol 23.9x OI, 12.5k vs 524 OI. Likely bought. Preferred read: bought for downside. 18.9 put 78 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol 17.9x OI, 7.5k vs 420 OI. Aggressive put buying. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 17.2 put 81 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 3.7x OI, near-term put. Likely bought given bearish flow. Possible sold? Preferred read: bought. 20.3 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — Vol 2.2x OI, deep ITM? Low activity but notable. Likely bought as hedge. Preferred read: bought. 6.5 call 82 OTM 2026-12-18 — Call in bearish flow, low IV suggests sold or bearish spread. Likely sold. Preferred read: sold for premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Bearish positioning crowded; short squeeze on sudden credit improvement.
!Gamma flip at $79 could reverse if spot holds above, triggering dealer hedging.
!Low IV may compress further, reducing option value.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.50/$78.50 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk bearish; aligns with bearish flow.
Short squeeze if spot holds above $80. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (108%).
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-18 $89.00/$94.00 call spread
Why now: Sell call spread to profit from range-bound price.
Upside move above short strike can cause losses. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.50 put
Why now: Buy put to capture decline; cheap premium in low vol.
Time decay if move is slow; theta burn. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (108%).

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.50/$78.50 put spread
Buy 79.50/78.50 put spread to target $79 with limited loss.
Why this play: Defined risk, aligns with bearish flow and gamma flip target.
Debit: $0.18-$0.21
Max loss: $0.21
BE: $79.29
Mgmt: Exit if spot holds above $80.51; monitor $79 gamma flip. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (108%).
Risk-conscious bears in low vol.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.50 put
Buy 79.50 put for high leverage; vega exposure.
Why this play: Cheap premium to capture decline directly.
Debit: $0.29-$0.36
Max loss: $0.36
BE: $79.14
Mgmt: Take profit near $79; manage vega drop. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (108%).
High-conviction bears accepting IV risk.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $89.00/$94.00 call spread
Sell 89/94 call spread to collect premium.
Why this play: Capital-efficient range-bound bearish play.
Debit: $0.02-$0.02
Max loss: $5.00
BE: $89.00
Mgmt: Close if spot exceeds $80.51. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Income-seeking neutral-bearish traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF HYG spot price declines below $80.00 (max pain) with bearish momentum, THEN enter Bear Put Spread: Buy 2026-06-18 $79.50/$78.50 put spread. → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy 2026-06-18 $79.50/$78.50 put spread.
IFIF HYG spot price declines through $79.50 with high conviction, THEN enter Long Put: Buy 2026-06-18 $79.50 put. → Enter Long Put: Buy 2026-06-18 $79.50 put.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF HYG spot price trades above $80.51 resistance, THEN exit all bearish positions and reassess. → Exit all bearish positions.
Exit Triggers
EXITIF HYG spot price reaches $79.00 gamma flip level, THEN close Bear Put Spread for target profit. → Close Bear Put Spread.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with negative dealer gamma and max pain at $80. Target $79 gamma flip. Favor bear put spread for defined risk. Enter below $80, exit at $79. Invalidation above $80.51. Low vol environment supports range-bound downside.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.