HYG
iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.87EOD onlyThis page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
HYG range-bound with pinning at $80 and positive dealer gamma, but bearish flow and low vol suggest slight bearish tilt. Key level $79 gamma flip; break below could accelerate selling. Expect spot near $80 with gradual drift lower toward $79.5-79.2 over two weeks.
Conflicts: Bearish flow net premium; gamma flip at $79 (1.1% below spot); equity market weakness (SPY/QQQ down).
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+233.5M
DEX: +155.1M shares
Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 300,822 (1.1% below spot))
NTM gamma: Dealer gamma net long $+233.5M with flip at ~$79; spot 0.4% above flip; pinning pressure at $80 from max pain.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: HYG IV is low relative to VIX given bond nature; current low vol environment consistent with VIX 18.6.
Term structure: Term structure relatively flat; kinks around OPEX dates (6/26, 7/2) as max pain concentrations affect near-term pricing.
Skew: Put skew elevated for near-dated expiries due to bearish flow; opportunity to sell puts at $79 support given gamma flip.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium -$49.97M, put/call vol ratio 3.62: strongly bearish flow.
Directional prints: 16.2 put 75 OTM 2026-12-18 — 120k vol vs 61k OI (ratio 2.0). Likely bought as downside protection; bearish sentiment. 19 put 80 ITM 2026-11-20 — 52.5k vol vs 19k OI (ratio 2.8). Aggressive put buying, betting on decline. 4.5 call 82 OTM 2026-09-18 — 50k vol vs 23.7k OI (ratio 2.1). High volume in cheap OTM calls; likely sold, adding to bearish pressure.
Unusual: 12.3 put 79 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI ratio 68.2, extreme. 16.5k vol vs 242 OI. New position, likely bought puts. 20.5 put 76 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI ratio 42.5, unusual. 22.5k vol vs 529 OI. Bearish bet, possibly as tail hedge. 16.2 put 75 OTM 2026-12-18 — 120k vol, largest trade. Even though ratio 2.0, size drives bearish tone.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear put spread | Moderate-Weak | Buy 2026-07-10 $79.50/$78.50 put spread Why now: Bearish flow and gamma pinning; spread reduces cost and defines risk. | Rally above upper strike causes max loss; pinning at $80 may cause theta decay. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (92%). |
| Call credit spread | Moderate-Weak | Sell 2026-07-10 $81.00/$85.00 call spread Why now: Positive dealer gamma and bearish flow; overpriced calls. | Upside gap could cause loss; downside limited to credit. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Open interest below 25. |
| Bearish risk reversal | Weak | Buy 2026-07-10 $79.50 put / sell 2026-07-10 $81.00 call Why now: Bearish flow and skew favor put buying; call at resistance funds put. | If HYG spikes, short call exposed; undefined risk on call. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (92%).; short_call: Volume below 5. |
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Tactical Summary
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