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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $80.04EOD only

Max Pain

$80.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.18

0.2% from close

Price Gap

-0.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

3.89

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

HYG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias within tight range due to bearish flow, negative gamma, and risk-off context (QQQ -1.9%, VIX 16). Low vol and spot at max pain $80 suggest limited downside initially, but gamma flip at $79 exposes weakness. High confidence (9/10) supported by aligned GEX and flow.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +1 spot at MP +1 VIX 16. All factors consistent.

Supports: Bearish flow, negative gamma, VIX elevated, risk-off market (QQQ -1.9%).
Conflicts: Low vol regime, spot at max pain, tight ranges.

🔻Bearish flow: Net premium indicates selling pressure, aligning with negative gamma.

🎯Max pain at $80: Spot pinned, but gamma flip at $79 suggests downside vulnerability.

📉Risk-off context: QQQ -1.9% and VIX 16 supports defensive positioning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV is low vs typical range for HYG, reflecting muted uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX (-771M) with gamma flip ~$79, trending regime amplifies moves.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium flow bearish, puts dominate, consistent with risk-off.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $80 max pain, within 0.0% delta, pin action likely.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Low vol environment with bearish flow suggests gradual drift lower over weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$79.68$80.38

Test lower guardrail $79.68.

Next 1 week

$79.59$80.46

Gravity toward gamma flip $79.

Next 2 weeks

$79.44$80.61

Potential break below $79 if bearish flow persists.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-06-18); $80 (2026-06-26); $80 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $79.68/$80.38; 1w $79.59/$80.46

Support: $79.00 · $78.00 · $77.00

Resistance: $80.61 · $81.00

Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 455,324 (1.3% below spot)

Structural: Support 79, 78, 77; Resistance 80.6, 81; Gamma flip ~$79.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-771.4M

DEX: +176.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 455,324 (1.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma (-771M) and long delta (176M shares). Short gamma amplifies moves; long delta points to hedging upside risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: HYG IV low vs VIX, reflecting credit spread stability relative to equity vol.

Term structure: Term structure flat, consistent with low event risk; near-term expiries show slight contango.

Skew: Skew put-side elevated; no significant vol arbitrage, but put spreads favored for bearish tilt.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $3.65M put premium, high put ratios, bearish.

Directional prints: 13.1 put 74 OTM 2026-08-21 — 15K vs 9.7K OI, aggressive buying. 10 put 81 ITM 2026-06-26 — 864 vs 576 OI, near-term buying.

Unusual: 21.2 put 82 ITM 2026-11-20 — 396 vs 180 OI, hedging. 13.1 put 74 OTM 2026-08-21 — 15K vs 9.7K OI, aggressive. 10 put 81 ITM 2026-06-26 — 864 vs 576 OI, near-term.

Risks & Catalysts

!Risk-off escalation could accelerate downside beyond support.

!Low vol regime may compress further, limiting profit.

!Positive gamma flip if spot rises above $80 could cause reversal.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $78.00/$77.00 put spread Why now: Large put OI at $79/$78 on Jul 17 caps; debit spread caps risk while profiting from decline.	Upside beyond $77 strike leads to max loss; time decay hurts long put. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (100%).
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00/$81.00 call spread Why now: Max pain at $80 caps upside; selling calls above with defined risk.	Spot rally above $81.5 causes max loss; low vol limits premium. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (100%). Substitutions: short_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $80.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $80.00.; long_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $81.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $81.00.
Bearish risk reversal	Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $78.00 put / sell 2026-07-17 $80.00 call Why now: Bearish flow and gamma flip at $79; selling call reduces put cost.	Unlimited loss if spot spikes above short call strike; early assignment risk. Substitutions: short_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $80.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $80.00.
Long put	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $78.00 put Why now: Net put premium flow and key support at $78; unlimited upside if spot drops.	Time decay if spot stalls above strike; vol compression limits profit.

Top Plays

Bearish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-17 $78.00 put / sell 2026-07-17 $80.00 call

Buy put at $78, sell call at $80; profits from downside below $78, reduced cost from call sale.

Why this play: Highest liquidity, cheapest premium, aligns with bearish flow and gamma flip at $79.

Credit: $0.17-$0.21

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: $80.21

Mgmt: Exit if spot rises above $80.61; roll if gamma flips positive.

Traders expecting multi-week decline to $78 or lower with manageable cost.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $78.00 put

Outright put purchase at $78 strike; benefits from any decline below $78.

Why this play: Direct bearish with unlimited upside if breakdown occurs; good liquidity.

Debit: $0.10-$0.13

Max loss: $0.13

BE: $77.87

Mgmt: Monitor gamma at $79; set stop if spot holds above $80.

High-conviction bearish traders willing to pay premium for uncapped gain.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $78.00/$77.00 put spread

Buy $78 put, sell $77 put; maximum profit if spot <= $77, risk limited to debit paid.

Why this play: Defined risk play targeting $78-$77 support; lower cost than long put despite less liquidity.

Debit: $0.01-$0.02

Max loss: $0.02

BE: $77.98

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below $77 or fails to decline; no roll needed. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (100%).

Risk-averse bearish traders with tight stop below $78.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot breaks below $79.00 (gamma flip) → THEN enter bearish risk reversal: buy Jul 17 $78 put, sell Jul 17 $80 call

IFIF spot breaks below $79.00 with volume → THEN buy Jul 17 $78 put

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot reaches $78.00 → THEN take profit on long put or close risk reversal call

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot rises above $80.61 → THEN close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias HYG due to risk-off, negative gamma, max pain $80. Key support $79, $78, $77. Top plays: bearish risk reversal (rank 1) and long put (rank 2) with liquidity pass. Entry below $79, manage above $80.61. High confidence multi-week downside.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.