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HYG

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $80.18EOD only
Max Pain
$79.50
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.38
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.68
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
8
Low premium
P/C OI
3.90
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
HYG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with downside tilt to the gamma flip near $79; Confidence: 8.0/10 (base). Primary supports: large negative GEX (-$1.1B) creating trending dealer hedging, concentrated put OI at $79/$77/$78 (569,316; 419,850; 372,748) pulling spot toward $79-$80, and net bearish premium flow (Net Premium: -$20.6M, P/C vol 3.55). Conflict: extremely low ATM IV (avg IV 10.2%) reduces option premium and limits seller edge; short expected move (2d ±$0.35) also compresses opportunity.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 8.0: +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 proximity to MP ($80) and concentrated put OI; no new exogenous catalyst found.
Supports: Put OI clusters at $79/$77/$78 and max pain pinned at $80 across near expirations; GEX flip ~ $79 provides dealer buying below that level.
Conflicts: ATM IV 10.2% and compressed expected moves reduce premium; DEX long 189.3M shares implies passive buying that can blunt sharp declines.
📉GEX strongly negative (-$1.1B) → trending dealers will accelerate moves through $79 flip
📌Max pain pinned at $80 for next expirations; short-term pin/mean near $80 despite bearish flow
⚖️P/C OI 4.65 and net premium -$20.6M — institutional put buying dominates; favors defined-risk bearish structures

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low vol regime: ATM IV 10.2% and 2d ATM 10.7% — options cheap, compressing seller edge but reducing cost for directional buys.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: total GEX -$1.1B with concentrated positive GEX nodes above spot ($81.00 +$625M, $80.50 +$96.4M) and gamma flip ~ $79 — dealers will sell into down moves and buy into rallies until flip.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow: Net premium -$20.6M, P/C vol 3.55 and P/C OI 4.65 indicate aggressive institutional put accumulation at $79–$77 levels.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot $80.19 is essentially at MP ($80) and within 0.9% of pins; this mechanical pin creates short-term mean around $80 while flows bias downside toward $79 flip.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Put accumulation, durable GEX negative and rising MP trend across multiple expirations (MP rising but near-term stuck at $79-$80) point to a multi-week trending setup; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$79.84$80.55
Break below $79.84 and hold 30m likely triggers dealer short-gamma selling toward $79 flip (~$79).
Next 1 week
$79.40$80.99
Sustained selling that clears $79 will turn intraweek tilt more bearish toward $79.40 floor; reclaim above $80.99 reduces downside risk.
Next 2 weeks
$79.17$81.21
A move below $79 triggers accelerated dealer selling toward the put floor $74-$76; upside capped by heavy call/GEX concentration at $81–$83.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-04-10); $80 (2026-04-17); $80 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails: 2d $79.84/$80.55; 1w $79.40/$80.99
Support: $79.00 · $77.00 · $74.00
Resistance: $81.00 · $80.50 · $82.00
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 569,316 (1.5% below spot)
Structural: Structural put floor $74-$76 (large OI clusters at $74/$75/$76) limits severe downside; call OI and large positive GEX nodes $81–$83 create structural cap on rallies.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.1B

DEX: +189.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 569,316 (1.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term gamma imbalance: heavy negative net GEX (-$1.1B) with concentrated positive GEX above spot at $81.00 (+$625M) and $80.50 (+$96.4M); dealers will hedge by selling into down moves (amplifying losses) and buying into rallies until the gamma flip at ~$79 where their hedges reverse direction.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV very low (avg IV 10.2% ATM) — cheap relative to historical ETF moves; limits premium for sellers but makes directional buys inexpensive.

Term structure: Flat-to-sloping: very low 2–4 week ATM (~9.8–10.7%) with a dip at 30d (7.1%) then rising beyond 100d; pick expirations with visible vol points (e.g., 37d 7.9% vs 71d 7.6%) for calendar edge.

Skew: Skew shows put demand at $79–$77 (high OI, low IV) — mispriced risk: buy cheap long-dated puts (100–200d) vs short near-term calls? Best visible mispriced vol: buy 71d (2026-06-18) puts where IV ~7.6% vs shorting ultra-near at 2–4wks (10%) offers little absolute premium — primary opportunity is defined-risk bearish spreads, not naked shorts.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$20.6M (bearish), P/C vol 3.55 and P/C OI 4.65 — heavy institutional put buys concentrated at $79/$77/$78.

Directional prints: 13.4 put 79.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — HYG260417P00079500: Vol 56,930 vs OI 2,363 (24.1x) — large short-dated put flow, likely bought protection or put spreads (bought puts more consistent with net premium). 9.9 put 80 OTM 2026-04-10 — HYG260410P00080000: Vol 5,622 vs OI 243 (23.1x) — tactical short-dated put buys into MP; could be delta-hedged institutional protection.

Unusual: 12.2 put 79 OTM 2026-09-18 — HYG260918P00079000: Vol 15,037 vs OI 6,668 (2.3x) — longer-dated put accumulation consistent with structural tail hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$79 — crossing this flips dealer hedging from selling into weakness to buying, causing rapid mean reversion or squeeze.
!Concentrated put buying creates downside impulse; a sharp spread compression (IV collapse) would hurt long vol positions.
!Low ATM IV (10.2%) reduces premium and increases slippage on selling premium strategies.
!Macro shock (rates/credit stress) could push HYG through put floor $74-$76 quickly given ETF composition; that outcome invalidates short premium assumptions.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockWeak
Buy HYG shares outright at $80.19
Negative GEX and institutional put demand favor downside; not recommended as primary play.
Short stockModerate
Short HYG stock at market near $80.20
Dealer short-gamma can accelerate moves; requires active management around $79 gamma flip.
Covered callModerate-Weak
Buy 100 HYG + Sell 2026-04-17 $81.00 call (sell high GEX node)
Low IV compresses call premium; assignment risk if rally to $81.
Cash-secured put / put spread (Sell put spread)Moderate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-15 $79.00/$77.00 put spread (30–45 DTE preferred)
Gamma flip <$79 and VIX spike increases cost to close.
Long callsWeak
Buy 2026-05-15 $81.00 call
Low IV reduces cost but GEX negative and put pressure make upside wins unlikely short-term.
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put + Sell 2026-06-18 $74.00 put (debit bear put spread, 71 DTE)
IV still low so premium small; downside beyond $74 limited but spread defines risk.
Iron condorModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-04-17 $77.00/$75.00 put fly x Sell $81.00/$83.00 call fly (defined risk; weeklies tactical)
Low IV means limited credit; negative GEX can break wings if move accelerates.
Calendar/diagonal (sell vol leg)Moderate
Sell 2026-04-17 $79.00 put, buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put (sell near-term higher IV vs buy longer-dated lower IV) — sell 9d, buy 71d
Term structure not hugely steep; small vol differential limits edge but aligns with put demand; watch rapid down moves.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put (or LEAPS put if available) with short 2026-04-17 $80.00 call overlay (collar-like protection)
Complex hedging; benefits from multi-week put accumulation and low cost of long-dated protection.
Protective put (for holders)Moderate
Buy 2026-06-18 $77.00 put as hedge for long HYG exposure
Cost small but IV low; protects versus tail risk into put floor.

Top Plays

#1
Sell put spread (multi-week)
Sell 2026-05-15 $79.00/$77.00 put spread
Aligns with concentrated put demand and MP near $80 while capturing premium from institutional flow; 30–45 DTE fits multi-week thesis.
Credit: $0.18-$0.28
Max loss: $200.00
BE: $78.82
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $79 and stays below for 2 sessions or VIX > 25.
Defined-risk premium collectors who accept being assigned or rolling below $79.
#2
Debit bear put spread (longer-dated)
Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put, Sell 2026-06-18 $74.00 put
Defined bearish directional with 71 DTE to allow trend development; low IV makes cost efficient and limits theta bleed vs buying near-term puts.
Debit: $0.65-$0.95
Max loss: $500.00
BE: $78.35
Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit if spread reaches 60–70% of max value; cut if spot > $81 for three sessions or if IV collapses >40%.
Traders wanting directional exposure with capped risk and time for a multi-week move.
#3
Calendar put (vol arbitrage)
Sell 2026-04-17 $79.00 put, Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put
Sell near-term elevated demand and buy longer protection; captures term-structure carry while aligning with institutional hedging.
Credit: $0.05-$0.18
Max loss: N/A
BE: Depends on leg fills; defined by long put cost
Mgmt: Close short leg if spot < $79 and hold long put; take profit if short-leg decays >70%.
Traders seeking small positive carry and limited downside with ability to manage rolling.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot trades and holds <$80.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-15 $79.00/$77.00 put spread
IFIf spot rallies to and fails at $81.00 within same session → Sell 2026-04-17 $81.00 call (covered call or naked depending on exposure) or initiate short call leg in iron condor
IFIf spot drops and breaks below $79.00 (gamma flip) with >1% move intraday → Buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put and consider buying 2026-06-18 $74.00 put to form bear put spread
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf short put spread (79/77) is down 50% of max credit and spot < $79.00 → Roll down and out: buy back short 79/77 and sell 2026-06-18 $79.00 put to extend duration
ADJIf calendar (sell 4/17 79 put / buy 6/18 79 put) short-leg loses >70% premium or spot < $79 for two sessions → Close short leg and retain long leg as directional hedge
Exit Triggers
EXITIf VIX rises above 25 or net premium flow flips positive >$10M → Close all short premium positions (put spreads, sold calendars) immediately
EXITIf short put spread (79/77) reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profit and consider re-selling for next cycle

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week bearish/trending regime (GEX -$1.1B, concentrated puts) favors defined-risk bearish structures and staggered calendars; invalidation: sustained reclaim and hold above $81.00 (stops dealer selling and shifts GEX behavior). Top plays: sell 30–45d $79/$77 put spread (best for defined-risk sellers), 71d $79/$74 bear put spread (directional, longer-dated), and sell 4/17 $79 put vs buy 6/18 $79 put calendar (term-structure carry).
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This directional reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
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