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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.52EOD only

Max Pain

$36.50

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.75

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+0.98

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet to $37 driven by concentrated call GEX at $37 and rising max-pain ladder (35→36→37); Confidence: 6.5/10.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 6.5 from +GEX/flow alignment; support from large GEX +$88.2M at $37 and DEX +132.1M share accumulation; slight downgrade factor is spot 3.7% above near-term MP and negative total GEX (-$28.9M).

Supports: GEX concentration +$88.2M at $37, +$27.4M at $36; put OI concentration at $32 (119,585) creates structural floor near $32-$34.
Conflicts: Total GEX negative (-$28.9M) implies trending dealers (weak delta-hedging), net premium negative (-$3.6M) and elevated 1d IV spike (74.1%) for expiry creates short-term noise.

📌Pin ladder rising: MP moves $35→$36→$37 across expiries, biasing mean toward higher strikes

🧲Huge near-term GEX +$88.2M at $37 acts as an upside magnet ~+2.0% from spot

⚠️Total GEX negative (-$28.9M) — dealer short-gamma will accelerate moves beyond gamma flip ~$32

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol: Normal — avg IV 31.8% with an extreme 1d IV of 74.1% (expiry-specific spike) but front-week IVs (8–36d) ~25–27% consistent with normal regime.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma: Trending — concentrated positive GEX near $37/$36 produces pinning but total GEX is negative (-$28.9M) so dealer hedging is pro-trend outside pins.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed — net premium -$3.6M (slight selling of premium), P/C vol 1.10 and P/C OI 1.09; directional prints concentrated in puts at lower strikes but call premium heavy at $37.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $36.29 is above near-term MP ($35→$36→$37 path) so short-term gravity is toward higher pins; being 3.7% above nearest MP increases risk of mean-revert pullback to $36-$37.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP trend rising across multiple expirations (several expiries show MP 35→36→37) and GEX concentration persists across near-term expiries, so prefer 30–45 DTE with weeklies as tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$35.65$36.94

Close GEX at $36 and $36.50 provides pinning; break below $35.65 negates short-term pinning.

Next 1 week

$35.42$37.16

Strong GEX at $37 (+$88.2M) will magnet spot; failure to close above $37 with rising put flow would flip to sideways/down.

Next 2 weeks

$34.85$37.73

Sustained dealer short-gamma (total GEX negative) will widen realized move if spot breaches EM guardrails.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $35 (2026-04-10); $36 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $35.65/$36.94; 1w $35.42/$37.16

Support: $36.00 · $35.00 · $34.00

Resistance: $37.00 · $38.00 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 119,585 (11.8% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $40 caps upside into larger expiries; put floor concentrated $32-$34 (gamma flip ~$32) is the structural downside stop-loss area.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-28.9M

DEX: +132.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 119,585 (11.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term: heavy positive gamma at $37 (+$88.2M) and $36 (+$27.4M) creates pinning / magnet behavior inside EM; total GEX negative (-$28.9M) means if spot moves ±2% dealers will sell into moves (short-gamma): a +2% move toward $37 forces dealer buying of delta (supporting move), a -2% move toward $35 will force dealer selling (accentuating downside).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 31.8% vs broader equity vol context (VIX not provided) — term is cheap/normal beyond 1d; 1d IV 74.1% is expiry-specific rich and will compress after expiry.

Term structure: Front-week 1d IV 74.1% (expiry spike) then 8–36d ATM IVs ~25–27% — steep short-dated kink; 43d+ months rise modestly to ~29%.

Skew: Notable skew: puts concentrated OI at $32, $34, $35 while call OI concentrated at $37 and $40; calendar/diagonal opportunities by selling the higher-IV leg exist (sell 5/15, buy 4/17).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$3.6M (net sellers); heavy put premium paid at $40 and $35 strikes (see Top Premium Flow).

Directional prints: 24.5 call 37 OTM 2026-04-17 — Large call OI/flow at $37 (OI 94,907; GEX +85.176M) — could be bought calls (bullish) or sellers structuring positions; given net premium negative, interpretation leans toward dealer/offload structures (sell-side), but bought calls remain possible. 50.8 put 32 OTM 2026-04-24 — Significant put OI at $32 (119,585) and unusual activity in long-dated $33/$35 puts — could be tail protection purchases (buy puts) or sold-lot spreads; with P/C>1 and net sell premium, these look like bought protection (bearish insurance).

Unusual: 26.1 put 35 OTM 2026-12-31 — Large vol print FXI261231P00035000 (Vol 1,201, OI 102) — long-dated $35 put interest indicates structural downside hedging/insurance.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~ $32 — breach triggers dealer acceleration and large put floor activity at $32-$34.

!Expiries (next 1–3 weeks) with concentrated short-dated GEX can create outsized intraday moves and IV compressions after decay (1d IV 74.1%).

!Net seller footprint and negative total GEX (-$28.9M) increases directional risk if flow shifts (market shock could blow through pins).

!Large put OI at $32 and call OI at $37/$40 create asymmetric liquidity lines; a big block trade at those strikes could move spot materially.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy FXI spot $36.29	Dealer short-gamma and negative GEX can accelerate downside; no defined risk.
Short stock	Weak	Short FXI spot	MP ladder and large GEX at $37 likely to cap downside; gamma flip near $32 limits pure trend downside.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 38.0 call	Capped upside at $38; stock downside to $32-$34 requires put hedge.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 35.0 put or sell 35.0/32.0 put spread	Break below $32 (gamma flip) accelerates losses; stock assignment risk.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 37.0 call	Time decay and modest IV — requires >$37+ premium move to profit.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 34.0 put or buy 36.0/32.0 bear put spread	Costs with limited edge unless downside breach to $32 occurs; puts rich on crash scenarios.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 35.0/32.0 put buy & sell 38.0/40.0 call buy	IV spike or breach of $32/$40 wings causes loss; profitable if pin holds inside EM.
Calendar / diagonal (sell higher-IV leg)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 37.0 call (IV~26.4%) and buy 2026-04-17 37.0 call (IV~24.5%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated leg).	Selling the longer-dated, higher-IV leg creates reverse-calendar exposure; requires managing carry and potential short-term squeeze.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-12-31 34.0 put as hedge while selling 2026-05-15 38.0 calls (covered-call collar)	Capital tied up; long-dated puts provide structural insurance but cost; time premium decay.

Top Plays

Sell 35/32 put spread (30–45 DTE)

Sell 2026-05-15 35.0/32.0 put spread

High-prob defined-risk credit that captures pinning to $36–37 and collects premium against concentrated put floor; favorable because MP trend and GEX provide downside support above $32.

Credit: $0.60-$1.25

Max loss: $32.40

BE: $34.40

Mgmt: Take profit at 60% of max credit; cut if spot < $33.25 or IV spikes >+6 pts.

Defined-risk premium collectors.

Reverse calendar on $37 calls

Sell 2026-05-15 37.0 call, buy 2026-04-17 37.0 call

Sells the higher-IV longer-dated May call (IV~26.4%) and buys the cheaper front-week Apr 17 call (IV~24.5%) — collects term premium and benefits if spot stays pinned under $37 while front-week decays or vol compresses.

Credit: $0.08-$0.25

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close sold May leg early if spot > $38.25 or if front-week IV collapses faster than May; the trade is a reverse-calendar so monitor carry cost.

Traders who want to monetize May skew and can manage reverse-calendar exposure.

Iron Condor (defined wings)

Sell 2026-04-24 35.0/32.0 put buy & sell 38.0/40.0 call buy

Collects premium inside the 1-week expected move while using 40.0 call and 32.0 put wings tied to structural OI walls; edge from concentrated GEX pinning and low mid-term IV.

Credit: $0.35-$0.85

Max loss: $265.65

BE: $34.65

Mgmt: Take 50–75% profit; hedge or close if spot trades outside EM bounds ($35.42–$37.16) with high conviction.

Accounts wanting short-premium defined risk tactically into expiry.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot touches $37.00 and holds for 30 min → Sell 2026-04-24 35.0/32.0 put spread

IFIf spot trades and rejects $36.94 (2d EM upper) within session → Sell 2026-05-15 37.0 call and buy 2026-04-17 37.0 call (reverse calendar)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $38.00 and IV rise >+4 pts → Widen iron-condor calls to 38.0/42.0 or close short premium exposure

ADJIf spot < $34.00 (approaching put floor) → Buy 32.0 puts or roll short put spreads down and widen wings to 32.0/29.0

Exit Triggers

EXITIf IV drops > -10 pts post 1d expiry (74.1% -> ~25%) → Close front-week calendars and collect remaining premium

EXITIf spot < $32.00 (gamma flip breached) → Exit all short-premium positions and switch to directional hedges (buy puts)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week mild bullish/pinning toward $37 supported by large GEX at $37 and rising MP; invalidation: decisive close below $32 (gamma flip) which triggers dealer acceleration. Regime favors defined-risk short-premium strategies (put spreads, iron condors) and selling higher-IV legs (reverse calendar on $37) while buying near-term decay; top plays: 35/32 put spread (defined-risk), reverse-calendar 5/15 vs 4/17 on $37 for skew capture, and a 4/24 iron condor for tactical premium collectors.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.