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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.75EOD only

Max Pain

$36.50

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.69

1.9% from close

Price Gap

+0.75

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.89

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 26, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet toward $37 driven by rising max-pain and concentrated call GEX at $37; confidence 6.5/10 (base). Top supporting signals: large GEX concentration +$84.2M at $37 and MP trend rising ($35→$36→$37); conflict: negative total GEX $-17.7M (trending) which favors follow-through if spot breaks higher or lower.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 6.5 (pre-computed): +2 from GEX/flow alignment (pin at $37), -0.5 from spot being 3.9% above MP; no near-term macro catalyst detected so accept base.

Supports: GEX concentration +$18.8M at $36.00 and put OI clusters at $34/$32 create support; EM lower guardrails $35.77 (2d) and $35.33 (1w).
Conflicts: Total GEX negative $-17.7M (trending) and net premium negative $-2.1M indicate dealer short-gamma/long-delta exposure that can accelerate moves away from spot; IV spike at 2d expiry (ATM 38.2%) signals event-week premium.

📌Pin magnet at $37 with +$84.2M GEX concentration (1.8% above spot) — near-term upside pull

⚠️Total GEX negative $-17.7M — dealers short gamma; ±2% moves will see accelerating dealer hedging

🧭Gamma flip around $32 creates a deep structural floor; puts concentrated 12.0% below spot at $32 strike

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV profile: ATM 2d 38.2% (front-week rich) then 9d/16d ~27.7%/27.4% — normal overall but event-week elevated front IV.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma = Trending (GEX total -$17.7M) meaning dealers are short gamma and hedging will amplify moves; crucial because large NTM GEX sits at $37 creating asymmetric hedging around that level.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow = Mixed: net premium negative $-2.1M with heavy put premium at $32 and $40 call/put large premiums; P/C volume 0.92 and P/C OI 1.10 show slight put bias but large call clusters at $37.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $36.35 sits above recent MP ladder ($35→$36→$37) implying an upside pull toward $37; distance from nearest MP ($36 on 4/17) is ~1% above, next MP $37 on 4/24 is +1.8% and aligns with big call GEX.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP trend rising across multiple expirations (several expiries show $36→$37), significant GEX concentration at $37 persists across near-term expiries, and IV term structure normalizes after front-week — favors 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$35.77$36.92

Front-week IV elevated (38.2% 2d) — sustained move above $36.92 would require breach of EM guardrail $36.92 and should be confirmed by volume.

Next 1 week

$35.33$37.36

Max pain $36 on 4/17 and concentrated GEX at $37 act as upward targets; break below $35.33 (1w lower EM) would negate pin.

Next 2 weeks

$34.93$37.76

Gamma flip near $32 is distant; follow-through beyond $37.76 needed to shift regime to clear uptrend.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $35 (2026-04-10); $36 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $35.77/$36.92; 1w $35.33/$37.36

Support: $35.77 · $35.33 · $34.00

Resistance: $36.92 · $37.00 · $37.36

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,511 (12.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural call shelf at $40 (OI wall) caps large upside; put floor concentrated $32–$34 is deep structural support and marks the gamma flip zone for directional conviction.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-17.7M

DEX: +132.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,511 (12.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM GEX heavy at $37 (+$84.2M) and $36 (+$18.8M) — dealers short gamma overall (total GEX $-17.7M) so a +2% move above $37 will force call-hedging buys and amplify upside; a -2% move below $36 will trigger put-hedging sells, accelerating downside until the $32 flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 31.2% with ATM 2d 38.2% then 9d/16d ~27.7%/27.4% — front-week rich vs rest of term (event-week premium).

Term structure: Front-week (2d) term kink (38.2%) >> 9–16d (≈27.5%); mid-term 30d ~31.1%; long-dated selection mixed but generally lower than front-week.

Skew: Notable front-week premium; calendar/diagonal opportunity: sell 4/10 ATM IV ~38.2% vs buy 5/15 ATM IV ~27.6% — ~10.6 vol-pt front-week rich edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$2.1M (net buyer of puts) with heavy put premium at $32 and $36; largest net call premium at $37 ($+1.75M) concentrated buying.

Directional prints: 31.6 call 36.5 OTM 2026-04-10 — FXI260410C00036500 — Vol=1,477, OI=613; could be buy-to-open calls (bullish) or 2ndary spreads; consistent with short-dated call demand into $37 pin. 96.9 call 51 OTM 2026-04-17 — FXI260417C00051000 — Vol=210, OI=105; large IV implies directional lottery/hedge, but small size vs chain — lower conviction.

Unusual: 31.6 call 36.5 OTM 2026-04-10 — High relative volume 1,477 vs OI 613 on 4/10 call; more consistent with buy-to-open short-dated bullish exposure given net call premium at $37.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $32 (put OI concentration 117,511) if breached would accelerate downside and invalidate bullish pin

!Front-week IV spike (38.2% 4/10) risks sharp vol crush if no follow-through post-expiry

!Negative total GEX $-17.7M makes moves self-reinforcing — both directions carry acceleration risk

!Max-pain shifts (MP rising) can fail if macro risk enters; watch broader market flows

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy FXI shares at market $36.35	Dealer short-gamma can amplify drawdowns; requires stop discipline
Short stock	Weak	Short FXI shares	Against pin and rising MP; high risk from dealer call-hedging above $37
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 37.0 call	Caps upside at $37 and exposed to downside to $32–34 structural floor
Cash-secured put (CSP) / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 35.0 put or sell 2026-04-24 36.0/34.0 put spread	Front-week IV dynamics and gamma flip <$32; use 16d expiry for multi-week balance
Long calls	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 37.0 call (directional into pin)	Front-week IV elevated; require meaningful move above $37 to pay off
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 34.0/32.0 bear put spread	Limited edge unless spot breaks below $35.33 EM; deeper selling needed to reach gamma flip
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-17 35.0/34.0 put spread + sell 35.0/37.0 call structure not typical — prefer defined wings: Sell 4/17 34.0/32.0 put x 38.0/40.0 call (adjust strikes per OI)	Negative GEX and front-week IV can blow wings if market trends; better at lower VIX
Calendar/Diagonal (sell front, buy back-month)	Strong	Sell 2026-04-10 ATM (36.0–36.5) and buy 2026-05-15 ATM — sell higher IV (38.2%) buy lower IV (~27.6%) ~10.6 vol-pt differential	Front-week pinch risk around expiry; requires range-bound behavior for theta capture
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-15 35.0 LEAPS-ish exposure and sell 2026-04-24 37.0 call (diagonal)	Requires roll plan; benefits from MP drift to $37 and term-structure differential

Top Plays

Sell short-term ATM calendar (vol arbitrage)

Sell 2026-04-10 36.0 call (or 36.5) / Buy 2026-05-15 36.0 call

Capture front-week IV rich (38.2%) vs 37d IV ~27.6% (~10.6 vol-pt edge); benefits from pinning and normalizing IV after front-week expiry.

Credit: $0.12-$0.25

Max loss: $2000.00

BE: depends on rolls

Mgmt: Take 50–70% credit profit after front-week decay; cut if spot closes outside 1w EM $35.33–$37.36 for two sessions

Traders who want limited directional risk and theta capture over multi-week thesis

Sell 16d put spread (defined-risk premium)

Sell 2026-04-24 36.0/34.0 put spread

Leverages MP drift to $37 and support around $35.33; defined downside limited to $2 width, collects front/near-term elevated premium.

Credit: $0.55-$0.85

Max loss: $145.00

BE: $35.45

Mgmt: Close at 60% of max profit or if spot < $35.33 (1w EM) for 2 consecutive sessions

Defined-risk sellers wanting multi-week exposure without naked short premium

Diagonal (buy longer-dated call, sell short-dated call)

Buy 2026-05-15 35.0 call, sell 2026-04-24 37.0 call (reverse calendar is possible but sell richer near-term)

Own directional upside into MP drift with time premium defensiveness; extra time reduces gamma risk vs a pure short-dated call buy.

Debit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: $1200.00

BE: $36.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 100% if long leg doubles; cut if spot <$35.33 or if IV term-normalizes unfavorably

Directional bulls preferring longer exposure with limited cost

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $37.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-24 36.0/34.0 put spread

IFIf spot remains inside $35.33–$37.36 for two sessions → Initiate calendar: sell 2026-04-10 36.0 call, buy 2026-05-15 36.0 call

IFIf spot breaks above $37.76 (2-week upper EM) on volume → Buy 2026-04-24 37.0 call or buy stock with stop at $36.00

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot drops below $35.33 (1w lower EM) → Roll/close short-dated sold calls and reduce short premium exposure; consider buying 34.0/32.0 bear put spread

ADJIf front-week IV (4/10 ATM) collapses >10 vol-pts after expiry → Trim calendars and take remaining profits on time-decay trades

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $34.93 (2-week lower EM) → Exit short put spreads and covered call positions

EXITIf trade P/L hits 60–70% of max profit → Take profits on short premium trades

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week mild bullish toward $37 supported by large GEX at $37 and rising MP; invalidation below $35.33 (1w EM) or a break of $34.93 (2w EM) which would flip the regime to bearish. Regime favors selling front-week rich vol via calendars and defined-risk put spreads; diagonals/LEAP overlays suit longer-dated bulls.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.