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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.52EOD only

Max Pain

$36.50

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.75

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+0.98

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Bearish-to-neutral bias with downside pressure but short-term pinning between $36 and $35; Confidence: 7.5/10. Primary signals: large negative GEX (-$100.2M) implying dealer selling and trending gamma, concentrated put OI at $37/$36/$35 producing downside flow, and net premium negative (-$4.5M) confirming institutional bearishness; conflict: spot sits above near-term max pain ($35/$36) so short-term magneting toward those pins can slow moves down.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5 from pre-computed: +2 from aligned GEX/flow, +0.5 from spot 1.4% above MP; no imminent event missed by the formula so no override.

Supports: 1) Max pain ladder rising ($35→$36→$37) supports gradual drift lower; 2) EM guardrail lower bounds ($34.69, $34.11) act as short-term support; 3) concentrated put OI at $32/$34/$35 provides structural buyers below spot.
Conflicts: 1) Pin magnets at $36 and $37 (GEX +$19.9M and +$52.3M) create short-term resistance to a fast drop; 2) IV term shows a steep short-dated spike (3d ATM 42.8%) that can compress on calm sessions.

📉GEX -$100.2M signals dealer short-gamma — favours trend continuation on directional moves

📌Max pain now $35 (4/10) then $36 (4/17) — near-term magneting toward those strikes

⚠️Large put OI at $37 (152,577) and $36 (114,787) with heavy put flow netting negative—institutional hedging/selling skewed bearish

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol regime: Avg IV 33.8% with a large short-dated IV spike (3d ATM 42.8%)—favors short-dated premium if selling into elevated IV but watch event-day crush.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma (GEX -$100.2M) means dealers short gamma will sell into weakness and buy into strength, amplifying moves; gamma flip at ~$32 is the structural long-gamma support.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Flow bearish: Net premium -$4.5M, P/C vol 1.26 and P/C OI 1.08 indicate more put buying/selling vs calls; institutional flow concentrated on downside strikes ($36,$37,$32).

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $35.48 sits above near-term MP $35 (4/10) and $36 (4/17), creating short-term pin tension — spot likely to be pulled toward $35–$36 while longer-term MP trend is rising.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP trend rising across multiple expirations (from $35→$36→$37) and GEX sign and flow persist across the next 2–4 week expirations (4/10–4/24), supporting a 30–45 DTE horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$34.69$36.27

Breaches below $34.69 (2d EM) would accelerate selling toward gamma flip; failure to hold $35 pins leads to rapid downside.

Next 1 week

$34.11$36.85

Sustained flow and negative GEX push spot toward max pain $35 (4/10) and $36 (4/17); break above $36.85 invalidates near-term downtrend.

Next 2 weeks

$33.84$37.12

Close below $33.84 would target gamma flip near $32; upside capped by concentrated call walls at $40 and EM upper bounds.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $35 (2026-04-10); $36 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $34.69/$36.27; 1w $34.11/$36.85

Support: $34.69 · $34.11 · $33.84

Resistance: $36.00 · $36.85 · $37.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,061 (9.8% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall at $40 caps major rallies; structural put floor near $32 is dealer gamma flip and likely strong catch level for larger buyers.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-100.2M

DEX: +134.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,061 (9.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term dealer short-gamma concentrated above spot: large negative GEX overall (-$100.2M) with positive localized GEX at $37 (+$52.3M) and $36 (+$19.9M) creating pin magnets; if spot drops -2% (~$34.77) dealers will accelerate selling to hedge (amplifying downside); if spot rises +2% (~$36.19) dealers buy to hedge less, reducing upside amplification but pinning near $36–$37 due to concentrated call OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 33.8% vs broad equity VIX context (not provided) — near-term IV expensive: 3d ATM 42.8% >> longer-dated 45d ~32%, so short-dated vol rich relative to term.

Term structure: Front-loaded steepness: 3d 42.8% → 10d 34.6% → 17d 33.2% then flattens ~30% beyond; signals event/short-dated risk and calendar edges.

Skew: Skew heavy on puts (elevated short-dated put IV) and a vol-pt gap: sell 3d IV 42.8% vs 17d 33.2% (~+9.6pt) — calendar/diagonal selling near-term vol has edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$4.5M (bearish); Top premium flow dominated by puts at $36 (-$1,957,307) and $40 (-$1,635,014).

Directional prints: 53.6 call 35 ITM 2026-04-10 — FXI260410C00035000: heavy 1,329 vol vs OI 272 — could be short-covering or aggressive buy; given net premium negative and P/C>1, more consistent with short-dated protective call buying (buy intent) but ambiguous.

Unusual: 97.7 call 51 OTM 2026-04-17 — FXI260417C00051000: very high IV on deep OTM call — speculative/hedge; low OI limits market-moving inference.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $32 — breakdown to that level would invert dealer behavior and create violent mean-reversion buys.

!Short-dated IV 42.8% (3d) can compress rapidly and punish long vol positions; calendar sellers risk short squeeze on unexpected gap up.

!Large put OI at $37 and $36 — if exercised/rolled into stock during volatility, could create temporary demand and volatility spikes.

!Macro shock or ETF flows (DEX +134.5M shares) could trigger accelerated moves either direction given dealer delta exposures.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy FXI stock at market	Negative GEX and bearish flow make straight long vulnerable to amplified downside; use wide stop.
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	Short FXI at market or use synthetic via short call/long put	Dealer short-gamma can accelerate downside but pinning at $35–$36 may cap near-term gains; gap risk to downside.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-22 36.0 call	Upside capped at $36; put pressure may reduce call premium; requires stock ownership.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 34.0 put or sell 34.0/32.0 put spread 4/17	Gamma flip toward $32; short-dated PIN risk into expiry; max loss defined by spread width.
Long calls	Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 36.0 call	High front-loaded IV and bearish flow make long calls expensive; poor risk-reward versus diagonals.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-22 36.0/32.0 bear put spread	Defined risk but pays off if trend continues to gamma flip; time premium helps vs short-dated noise.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-17 34.0/32.0 put spread + sell 34.0? (adjust) — prefer defined wings: 4/17 short 34P/short 37C with wings 32P/40C as a structured IC	Negative GEX and potential directional break reduces IC edge; short-dated IV high helps premium collected but risk on break is significant.
Calendar/diagonal (sell near-term, buy farther)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-10 36.0 call, buy 2026-05-22 36.0 call (regular calendar) — sell higher short-dated IV 42.8% vs buy 45d ~32% (~+10.8 vol pts)	Gamma and short-dated event risk can spike short leg; requires management of front-month moves.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-30 (84d) 32.0 LEAP put protection + sell nearer-term calls (e.g., 4/17 36.0) as yield enhancer	Cost of LEAP and roll risk; LEAP IV anomalies (note odd ATM 0.2% at 318d is data error) — use nearby long-dated expirations with normal IV.

Top Plays

Sell 34.0/32.0 put spread 2026-04-17

Sell 34.0/32.0 put spread 4/17

Short-dated put spread collects rich front-month put premium while staying above gamma flip (~$32); edges from bearish flow and high short-dated IV.

Credit: $0.24-$0.40

Max loss: 1.76

BE: $33.76

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-60% of max credit; cut if spot <$33.00 or VIX spikes > +6pts.

Traders wanting defined-risk short premium with 10d horizon

30–45 DTE Bear Put Spread 2026-05-22

Buy 36.0/32.0 put spread 5/22

Multi-week directional play aligned with rising MP and negative GEX; time buys protection against short-term pinning while capturing trend to $32–$34.

Debit: $0.80-$1.60

Max loss: $400.00

BE: $34.40

Mgmt: Take 60% profit if spread >60% of max; cut at <50% of debit or if spot > $37.50 for 3 sessions.

Traders wanting directional bearish exposure with defined risk over 30–45 DTE

Calendar (sell 4/10, buy 5/22) at 36.0 — regular calendar

Sell 2026-04-10 36.0 call, buy 2026-05-22 36.0 call

Exploit 3d IV 42.8% vs 45d ~32% (~+10.8 vol pts); collects front-month premium while maintaining upside optionality — benefits from pinning and front-end IV crush.

Credit: $0.30-$0.90

Max loss: Varies (requires hedge)

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close short leg into >60% of target profit or if spot rallies above $36.85 (1w EM upper bound).

IV sellers comfortable managing front-month gamma

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $36.00 and holds <30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 34.0/32.0 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $36.85 (1w EM upper) and IV front-month >40% → Sell 2026-04-10 36.0 call and buy 2026-05-22 36.0 call (calendar)

IFIf spot falls to $34.11 (1w EM lower) on heavy flow → Buy 2026-05-22 36.0/32.0 bear put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX-equivalent front-month IV compresses by >8 vol-pts from current 42.8% → Close calendar/diagonal short legs to lock profit

EXITIf spot closes above $37.12 (2w EM upper) on volume → Exit or flip bearish spreads to neutral collars

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: negative GEX + bearish flow favours defined bearish exposure and short premium on elevated short-dated IV; invalidate bearish multi-week thesis above $37.12 (2‑week EM upper) and specifically if spot sustained >$36.85; regime favors defined bearish spreads (put spreads) and front-month calendar selling for IV carry — top plays: short 34/32 put spread (4/17) for short-dated premium, bear put 36/32 (5/22) for multi-week directional, and 36.0 calendar (sell 4/10, buy 5/22) to harvest front-end IV.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.