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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $64.39EOD only

Max Pain

$69.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.01

3.1% from close

Price Gap

+4.61

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

CVNA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

CVNA pinned at $68 with positive GEX but bearish flow. Near-term range $63.55-$73.00. Risk of breakdown to $60 flip. Confidence 7/10.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base5, -1 contr, +1 GEXpin, +1 MP, +1 VIX17

Supports: Pinning, positive GEX, low VIX
Conflicts: Bearish flow, high vol, gamma flip

🔒Pinned at $68

📉Bearish flow

📊Pos GEX support

⚠️$60 gamma flip risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs hist, weekly expiry uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$49M, flip $60, spot at MP $68.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish, net put premium.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $68.26 = max pain $68.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expiry today and pinning at max pain.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$63.55$73.00

Test $63.55 support.

Next 2 weeks

$61.48$75.08

Range $61.48-$75.08.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $68 (2026-05-22); $66 (2026-05-29); $70 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 1w $63.55/$73.00

Support: $61.48

Resistance: $68.50 · $75.08

Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,068 (12.1% below spot)

Structural: S $61.48, R $68.5/$75.08, flip $60. MP: $68/D1, $66/D8, $70/D15.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+49.1M

DEX: +43.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,068 (12.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$49M, DEX +43M shr, flip ~$60.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 16.7, high premium.

Term structure: Steep near-term, event kink 22-May.

Skew: Put skew high; sell puts at high IV.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative -$2.36M with put/call volume ratio 1.69 indicates bearish flow.

Directional prints: 32.8 put 66 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 16.8; massive opening buy of OTM puts, bearish bet on drop below $66 by expiry. 63.6 put 64 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.8; new put position, bearish for mid-June, likely bought. 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 2.5; speculative far OTM call buying, bullish long-shot, small premium.

Unusual: 32.8 put 66 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 16.8; extreme concentration, likely opening buyer of OTM puts for bearish bet. 63.6 put 64 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 3.8; high IV put with large new OI, bought for protection or bearish view. 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Far OTM call with modest volume, potential lottery ticket buy or closing of short calls.

Risks & Catalysts

!$60 gamma flip

!Bearish flow

!Break $61.48

!Vol spike

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $67.00/$64.00 put spread Why now: Large OTM put buy at $66 and net bearish premium; near-term risk of breakdown.	Stock may hold support at $68; defined risk if wrong.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-17 $64.00 put Why now: Persistent bearish flow and risk of breakdown; long put captures convexity.	Theta decay if stock holds; needs direction soon.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $70.00/$73.00 call spread Why now: Positive GEX but bearish flow; short call premium at resistance.	Unexpected rally above $73; defined risk.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $67.00/$64.00 put spread

Buy $67/$64 put spread expiring June 5, capturing breakdown below $66.

Why this play: Directly profits from expected downside with defined risk; aligns with bearish flow and pinned $68 resistance.

Debit: $0.97-$1.19

Max loss: $1.19

BE: $65.81

Mgmt: Exit if price holds above $68.50; target full gain at $64.

Traders seeking limited-risk bearish exposure near resistance.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $64.00 put

Buy $64 put expiring July 17 for downside protection or directional bet.

Why this play: Captures larger convexity if breakdown accelerates; supported by persistent bearish flow.

Debit: $4.43-$5.42

Max loss: $5.42

BE: $58.58

Mgmt: Set stop at $68.50; consider rolling if time decay accelerates.

Traders with higher risk tolerance expecting significant decline.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $70.00/$73.00 call spread

Sell $70/$73 call spread expiring June 5, profiting if price stays below $70.

Why this play: Collects premium from capped upside; fits bearish flow but lower probability than direct puts.

Credit: $0.95-$1.16

Max loss: $1.84

BE: $71.16

Mgmt: Buy back if price breaches $70; manage around earnings.

Income-focused traders neutral-bearish on short term.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFCVNA breaks below $66.00 support → Buy 2026-06-05 $67.00/$64.00 put spread at $0.97-$1.19

IFCVNA holds below $68.50 for one session → Sell 2026-06-05 $70.00/$73.00 call spread at $0.95-$1.16

Exit Triggers

EXITCVNA rallies above $68.50 invalidation → Close bear put spread and long put positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with pinned $68 resistance. Key support $61.48, gamma flip at $60. Prioritize bear put spread on breakdown below $66. Exit if resistance holds above $68.5. Call credit spread as secondary income if price stays capped.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.