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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $63.35EOD only

Max Pain

$69.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.61

5.7% from close

Price Gap

+5.65

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.89

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

CVNA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a strong pinning regime and institutional call buying, but elevated volatility and distance from near-term max pain caps upside. Confidence: 7.5/10.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.8% from MP.

Supports: GEX +$16.7M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$15.9M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.52 (call dominance).
Conflicts: Spot $314.38 is above near-term max pain ($290-$300), IV extremely high at ~80%.

📌Strong GEX pinning, but spot is above the pin.

📈Massive $29.5M net premium at $290C suggests institutional bullish conviction.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV ~80% is extremely high, favoring premium sellers but demanding defined risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$16.7M indicates strong dealer pinning activity, suppressing volatility near spot.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$15.9M with P/C vol 0.62 shows clear institutional call buying dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot is 4.8% above the $300 max pain cluster, creating a gravitational pull lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder is flat near $300 across multiple expirations, GEX sign is strongly positive, and bullish flow is consistent. This suggests a multi-week range-bound/pinning regime, not just a one-week event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$300.98$327.78

Gravitational pull toward max pain; break above $327.78 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$285.43$343.33

Pinning and high GEX contain moves; watch for drift toward $300.

Next 2 weeks

$276.61$352.16

Bullish flow supports; but max pain gravity persists. Upside capped by $350-$400 OI wall.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $300 (2026-03-27); $290 (2026-04-02); $300 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $300.98/$327.78; 1w $285.43/$343.33

Support: $65.00

Resistance: $400.00 · $600.00 · $330.00

Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,936

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $350, $400, $600, $700 cap rallies. Singular put floor at $65 is irrelevant for near-term trading.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+16.7M

DEX: +8.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$65 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,936)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated near spot suppresses volatility. A move below ~$300 would increase dealer buying (supportive), a move above ~$330 would increase dealer selling (resistive).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV ~80% is extreme, making long premium expensive and selling attractive.

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping near-term (66.8% 2d → 85.8% 31d), peaking around May earnings. Kinks at 5/01 and 5/08 expirations (est. earnings 4/29 & 5/06).

Skew: High near-term IV vs. lower long-term IV (e.g., 85.8% May vs. 74.8% July) supports calendar spreads selling the front.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$15.9M bullish; P/C Vol 0.52, P/C OI 0.62.

Directional prints: $290C saw $30.3M premium (likely bought calls as a bullish bet or hedge). $440P saw -$16.8M net premium (could be sold puts for income or bought puts for far OTM protection).

Unusual: $215P 4/2 with 186.7% IV and 1.8x volume/OI — likely lottery ticket buyers or extreme tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin breaks if spot falls decisively below $300, triggering dealer long hedging (supportive) but breaking the range thesis.

!Extreme IV (>80%) can lead to violent vol crush on any stability, punishing long premium positions.

!Upcoming earnings estimates (~1.54 EPS) create event risk priced into May expirations (IV ~86-90%).

!Massive OTM call walls ($350-$700) represent significant overhead supply if rally accelerates.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell $300/$295 put spread & $330/$335 call spread, 4/17 expiry.	VIX and IV are extremely high; GEX positive supports but vol risk elevated.
CSP / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $300/$295 put spread 4/17 (targeting max pain pullback).	Continued drift lower below $295.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $330C 4/17 (resistance/EM bound).	Shares called away above $330.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Strong	Sell $300P 4/17 (max pain target).	Assignment below $300.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — IV too high for outright long premium.	Vol crush.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Weak	Only as hedge; e.g., buy $310/$300 put spread 4/2.	Pinning and positive GEX work against bearish momentum.
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Sell 5/01 $300C (IV 85.8%), buy 7/17 $300C (IV 74.8%) for ~11 vol-pt credit.	Earnings move in May short leg.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/15/27 $250C, sell 4/17 $330C against it.	Capital intensive; short call caps upside.

Top Plays

Short Put Spread (Targeting Max Pain)

Sell $300/$295 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on the gravitational pull toward $300 max pain and the high IV. Positive GEX provides a buffer against sharp drops. Defined risk below the pin.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $298.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $295. Roll if spot approaches $300 and time decay slows.

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias seeking high premium in a pinning regime.

Reverse Calendar Spread (Selling High May IV)

Sell 5/01 $300 Call, Buy 7/17 $300 Call.

Exploits the steep IV term structure around earnings. You collect a premium for selling high May volatility while maintaining longer-dated bullish exposure. The 30+ DTE long leg provides time for the thesis (range/pin) to play out and withstands near-term pin volatility.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close after May earnings vol crush. Manage short leg if spot rallies sharply toward $330. The long leg provides substantial protection.

Volatility traders comfortable with earnings risk, looking for a theta-positive play with long delta.

Covered Call

Own shares, sell the $330 Call, 4/17 expiry.

Ideal for shareholders. Generates high income from elevated IV at a strike near the 1-week EM resistance. Aligns with the range-bound, pinning outlook where a breakout above $330 is less likely.

Credit: $8.00-$10.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Consider rolling up and out if spot approaches $325. Let shares be called away if assigned above $330.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield in a high-volatility, range-bound market.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $327.50 (near 2d EM high) → Sell $330/$335 call spread 4/17.

IFSpot pulls back to $302.50 (testing max pain) → Sell $300/$295 put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITVIX term structure inverts (front > back) → Exit all short premium strategies (fear spike imminent).

EXITSpot closes below $290 (breaking multi-week MP support) → Exit all bullish/non-hedged positions.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis is a multi-week range/pin between $300-$330, pulled toward $300 max pain, supported by strong positive GEX and bullish flow but capped by high IV and OI walls. Favor selling premium at range bounds. Top plays: 1) Short put spread for defined-risk pin play, 2) Reverse calendar to sell expensive May vol, 3) Covered call for shareholders. Invalidation: close below $290.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.