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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $63.35EOD only
Max Pain
$69.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.61
5.7% from close
Price Gap
+5.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
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Outlook

Bearish near-term bias as dealer gamma negative ($-33.3M) and spot below max pain, but VIX 18 and GEX/flow alignment provide underlying support. Key risk: breakout above $73.73.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow; -1 spot-MP distance; +0.5 VIX 18 → net 6.5.
Supports: GEX/flow alignment, high vol, spot below resistance.
Conflicts: Spot far from MP, mixed flow.
🔴Negative GEX -$33.3M and spot below MP pressure.
🟢GEX/flow alignment boosts conviction.
⚠️Gamma flip at $60 close; break could accelerate.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol due to elevated options activity; IV above typical.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma negative ($-33.3M); flip at $60 near spot.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow, balanced P/C.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain ($73-$80), wide gap reduces immediate pull.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Key expirations May15/22/29 drive event dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$62.65$71.69
Spot drifts toward $60 gamma flip; resistance $71.69.
Next 2 weeks
$60.61$73.73
Break below $60 targets lower support; upside capped at $73.73.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-15); $73 (2026-05-22); $76 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 1w $62.65/$71.69
Support: $60.61
Resistance: $73.73
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,849 (10.7% below spot)
Structural: Support: $60 (gamma flip), $60.61 (2w low). Resistance: $71.69, $73.73. Max pain: $80 (15May), $73 (22May), $76 (29May).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-33.3M

DEX: +54.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,849 (10.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX: -$33.3M (short gamma). DEX: +54.6M shares (long delta). Gamma flip ~$60 (10% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18.43, suggesting high implied risk.

Term structure: Upward-sloping near term; kinks at May15/22.

Skew: Put skew elevated; put calendar spread if spot holds $60.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$6.38M with put/call volume 0.93 and OI 0.96, slight bearish bias despite bullish call activity.

Directional prints: 59.8 call 75 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 7.7, high relative to OI; suggests new bullish buying. Bought preferred. 85.9 put 50 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.1, high put volume with bearish intent. Bought preferred. 145.3 put 32 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 5.3, deep OTM speculative put buying. Bought preferred.

Unusual: 175.4 call 68.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Same-day expiration with extremely high IV 175% and low price $0.03. Unusual lottery-like activity; bought preferred. 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Long-dated far OTM call with vol/OI 2.5. Highly unusual given spot price; long-term bullish bet. 57.1 put 69 ITM 2026-05-22 — ITM put with vol/OI 2.4, moderate activity. Possibly hedging or bearish; bought preferred given overall put flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $60 triggers dealer hedging and sharp decline.
!Break above $73.73 flips gamma positive, causing short squeeze.
!Volatility crush if event uncertainty resolves.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-29 $69.00/$65.00 put spread
Why now: Bearish put spread captures defined downside risk with high probability of success within 2 weeks.
Max loss is net debit; upside risk capped if stock rallies above short strike.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-05-29 $68.00 put
Why now: Long put offers convexity and unlimited profit potential if stock breaks below support.
Time decay accelerates if stock moves sideways or rallies; premium paid is max loss.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-05-29 $69.00/$65.00 put spread
Captures defined downside risk with high probability of success.
Why this play: Better fits near-term bearish bias with defined risk and high probability within 2 weeks.
Debit: $1.76-$2.16
Max loss: $2.16
BE: $66.84
Mgmt: Exit if price breaks above $73.73 invalidation.
Traders seeking defined risk and high probability.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-05-29 $68.00 put
Expresses bearish view with convexity and unlimited upside if stock drops sharply.
Why this play: Offers convexity and unlimited profit if stock breaks below support, but higher risk.
Debit: $3.26-$3.99
Max loss: $3.99
BE: $64.01
Mgmt: Take partial profits on sharp drops; avoid holding through earnings.
Traders seeking convexity and willing to accept higher risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot reaches $73.73 resistance and shows weakness → THEN enter bear put spread (2026-05-29 $69/$65) for 1.76-2.16 debit
IFIF spot breaks below $60.61 support with volume → THEN enter long put (2026-05-29 $68) for 3.26-3.99 debit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes above $73.73 → THEN exit all bearish positions (bear put spread and long put)

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term bias. Key levels: support $60 (gamma flip), resistance $73.73. Prefer bear put spread for defined risk. Invalidation above $73.73.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.