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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $69.90EOD only
Max Pain
$80.50
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.18
4.6% from close
Price Gap
+10.60
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
64
High premium
P/C OI
0.97
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Moderate bull bias supported by positive dealer delta (+53.5M) and low VIX (17.3), but high vol and mixed flow limit conviction. Spot at $68.99, below key max pain pins ($80-$75), suggesting upward drift. Short gamma positions amplify moves; break of $72 targets $76.6, failure at $67.5 risks $62.45 support.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned (dealers short gamma, net long delta); -1 spot 13.1% below max pain; +1 VIX low (17.3).
Supports: Dealer long delta (+53.5M shares), low VIX (17.3), price ranges showing support at $62.45.
Conflicts: High vol regime, mixed flow, spot below max pain, negative gamma flip at $60.
📈Bullish delta: +53.5M shares dealer net long
⚠️Short gamma risk: -$33.5M GEX amplifies moves
🎯Max pain drift: Spot $68.99 vs $80 pin
🔒Support $62.45 long-term

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol: IV elevated vs typical range, suggesting uncertainty.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: Dealers short gamma (-$33.5M), flip at ~$60, indicating potential acceleration on breaks.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: Net premium unclear, put call ratio moderate.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below: Spot $68.99 vs max pain $80 (15 May), $75 (22 May), $76 (29 May); 13.1% below suggests pull toward pins.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly max pain pins create directional pull; high vol and short gamma amplify reaction to breaks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$67.49$71.56
Range 67.49-71.56; key max pain $80 pin on 15 May, spot below.
Next 1 week
$66.90$72.16
Gradual drift toward $75 max pain; resistance at $72.16.
Next 2 weeks
$62.45$76.60
Longer-term target at resistance $76.6, supported by dealer delta.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-15); $75 (2026-05-22); $76 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $67.49/$71.56; 1w $66.90/$72.16
Support: $62.45
Resistance: $76.60
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,862 (13.7% below spot)
Structural: Support 62.45 (2w low), resistance 76.6 (2w high); EM guardrails 2d: 67.49/71.56, 1w: 66.90/72.16.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-33.5M

DEX: +53.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,862 (13.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer gamma -$33.5M (short gamma), flip ~$60; net delta +53.5M shares.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX 17.3, indicating rich premiums.

Term structure: Front-month (15 May) elevated vs back months due to OPEX; structure is normal-to-backwardated with kink at 15 May expiry.

Skew: Given high vol, potential vol sell strategies if range holds; put skew may be rich.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative at -2.5M (put/call vol 0.81) but unusual call activity suggests mixed sentiment.

Directional prints: 61.1 put 71 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 215 vs OI 118 (1.8x). Put buying, bearish.

Unusual: 61 call 70 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 3.5x. Near-term call; could be bought or sold; bullish if bought. 60.2 call 73 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 2.9x. Similar to $70 call; likely bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot break below $67.5 could trigger gamma flip toward $60.
!Max pain shift if spot stays low; high vol regime continues.
!OPEX gamma shift on 15-May could amplify moves as max pain pin at $80 interacts with spot at $68.99.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $88.00/$96.00 call spread
Why now: Positive dealer delta and low VIX support upside; spread reduces vol cost.
Spot fails to break $72; spread expires worthless.
Put credit spreadWeak
Sell 2026-08-21 $58.00/$50.00 put spread
Why now: Spot above $67.5; selling put captures premium with defined risk.
Spot breaks $67.5; spread loses. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $88.00/$96.00 call spread
Buy $88/$96 call spread for upside exposure with defined risk and cost efficiency.
Why this play: Aligned with moderate bull bias, positive dealer delta, and low VIX. Spread reduces vol cost.
Debit: $1.21-$1.47
Max loss: $1.47
BE: $89.47
Mgmt: Exit near target $96 or if spot breaks below $67.5.
Traders with moderate bullish conviction seeking defined risk.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $58.00/$50.00 put spread
Sell $58/$50 put spread to earn credit with downside protection.
Why this play: Captures premium with support at $67.5, but liquidity fails reduce fill confidence.
Credit: $1.89-$2.30
Max loss: $5.70
BE: $55.70
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $60 or adjust to avoid assignment. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Income-focused traders comfortable with liquidity risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks above 71.56 (1w guardrail upper) → THEN buy 2026-08-21 $88/$96 call spread for 1.21-1.47
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes below 67.50 (2d guardrail lower) → THEN close bull call spread to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Moderate bull bias, positive dealer delta, low VIX. Favor bull call spread. Key support 62.45, resistance 76.6. Invalidation at 67.5.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.